Very cool. I'll def check this out more later on.
Show HN: I simulated closing the Strait of Hormuz on real oil trade data
21–30 of 136 posts
Re: Show HN: I simulated closing the Strait of Hormuz on real oil trade data
#22Very cool. I'll def check this out more later on.
Much appreciated, server seems to be (fingers crossed) going strong so far
Re: Show HN: I simulated closing the Strait of Hormuz on real oil trade data
#23But in reality this won’t happen, because China won’t be happy and will force Iran to a deal like last time or they will lose all the parts and intelligence tech they are providing to them.
Can't Iran be selective and only allow Chinese ships through?
The USA could block Chinese ships. Or maybe disable the loading jetties.
Re: Show HN: I simulated closing the Strait of Hormuz on real oil trade data
#24I don't know if I'm doing something wrong, but if I set Capacity Retained to 100% then no matter what I set the other values to a bunch of countries deplete their reserves.
This feels wrong; but I'm inclined to think I'm missing something.
Re: Show HN: I simulated closing the Strait of Hormuz on real oil trade data
#25I don't know if I'm doing something wrong, but if I set Capacity Retained to 100% then no matter what I set the other values to a bunch of countries deplete their reserves. This feels wrong; but I'm inclined to think I'm missing something.
Fair point. Actually this is both a semantics oversight on my part and also expected behaviour. at 100% retained there's no shock, but the model's countries target consumption plus a large safety buffer, and some can't fill that target even in peacetime, so they draw reserves at baseline, the shock scenarios show the additional damage relative to that baseline
Re: Show HN: I simulated closing the Strait of Hormuz on real oil trade data
#26What concrete predictions does your model make? What developments in pricing/other would indicate that your model is wrong or incomplete? Nice website regardless, but I'm a bit skeptical that the dynamics of the global oil/energy market can be accurately predicted.
>What concrete predictions does your model make? Well, the model is less of a prediction and more of a stress testing tool. But under the hypothetical closure scenarios it shows the timing the oil reserves of distant countries exhaust, as well as the systemic effects on pricing (the France paradox). >What developments in pricing/other would indicate that your model is wrong or incomplete? The model has a stylized way…
>In practice, when countries ration their oil that's beyond the scope of the model.
Does your model assume that demand is constant regardless of price? We're already seeing a reduction in demand over the last several months.
https://finance.yahoo.com/energy/articles/global-oil-demand-...
Re: Show HN: I simulated closing the Strait of Hormuz on real oil trade data
#27Re: Show HN: I simulated closing the Strait of Hormuz on real oil trade data
#28Good stuff.
Maybe you can make a playback speed option for the simulation/play button? I fail to follow up.
Re: Show HN: I simulated closing the Strait of Hormuz on real oil trade data
#29Good stuff. Maybe you can make a playback speed option for the simulation/play button? I fail to follow up.
Thank you. Yes, in desktop there is one (that might still be going a little bit too fast), but in mobile it might not be that easy to find. Perhaps I will slow down the speed in mobile by default and change the location (should be in the bottom right corner, the 2 wk/s can be changed to 1 wk/s)
Re: Show HN: I simulated closing the Strait of Hormuz on real oil trade data
#30Earlier quoted context omitted.
>What concrete predictions does your model make? Well, the model is less of a prediction and more of a stress testing tool. But under the hypothetical closure scenarios it shows the timing the oil reserves of distant countries exhaust, as well as the systemic effects on pricing (the France paradox). >What developments in pricing/other would indicate that your model is wrong or incomplete? The model has a stylized way…
>In practice, when countries ration their oil that's beyond the scope of the model. Does your model assume that demand is constant regardless of price? We're already seeing a reduction in demand over the last several months. https://finance.yahoo.com/energy/articles/global-oil-demand-...
> China's decrease of 1.5 million barrels per day, representing a 9% decline, was by far the largest globally, the report said.
Some global demand destruction is occurring, but that of China is them switching to large internal strategic reserves.
https://youtu.be/BkA0bkb6ZO0 (whole video is worth the watch)