Be skeptical of OpenAI's rogue hacker agent story

1. The way OpenAI seems to want: Their latest LLM is too powerful and can’t be contained without them building in guidelines to the model.

2. OpenAI’s harness and network security controls were unintentionally so bad that it should reflect more poorly on them as a company more than it should reflect positively on their latest model.

3. The whole thing was faked or at least very intentionally not avoided.

The first interpretation is the only one that is positive for OpenAI and it has some assumptions. First, it’s seems to assume that this is the first case of fully automated attacks using AI. Second, this only happened because their latest LLM was a) more advanced than competitors, b) didn’t have refusals in the model.

Assuming the first about this being the first autonomous AI attack is true (which may be more of a survivorship bias), the second seems to forget that jailbreaks are available for every model. Therefore, the models guardrails don’t seem to be the differentiator here. Also, benchmarks seems to put most models pretty close to each other so it seems unlikely that their capabilities are far beyond what’s in the market already.

So then it’s seems it’s either that this was intentional(ish) or bad security. However, it also just could be that this isn’t the first case of this attack; just the first that was caught.

My take from working in offensive security for over five years is that this likely only looks novel since they did it poorly. Scripts are faster than LLMs and a combination of code, LLMs where it makes sense, and humans is the most efficient right now. Hundreds or thousands or agents spinning up attacks in the internal network is poor opsec and token efficiency. As for why it happened in the first place, it’s hard to say but I’m inclined to believe it was intentional or careless at best since simple network and sandbox controls makes this attack impossible. The timing of this attack after big open weight competitions drops seems too convenient.

The issue is that a lot of important details in that narrative are missing, and the devil is really in the details here. I suspect that those details would make the result seem less exciting and that this event would move the needle far less for them if they were more forthcoming.

A decisive detail would be the prompt used. OpenAI gives virtually nothing here, not a sanitized prompt and not even so much as a description of how long the prompt was and what sorts of instructions it contained. Many are inferring the model behavior to have been fully emergent and unprompted, arising naturally from routine cyber-capabilities testing. But we can't know this because we don't know anything about the prompt or the context the model had access to.

Another detail: how many times did they perform this particular experiment before they obtained this result? What were the outcomes of all the other runs? Many are assuming this was a one-shot result, which I suspect is what OpenAI intends for us to infer. But we can't know that to be true.

One annoying claim from the OpenAI side is that long-horizon goals in real world settings are now effectively settled. Previously there were some bounded and tempered benchmark results, but now OpenAI can point to this event and announce "AI independently went rogue and escaped the lab, what more do you want?". This bypasses the need for anything quantifiable or wading through multiple detailed case studies to get a more sober view of model capabilities. It relies instead on the emotional weight of the spectacle.

not going to get a decisive first advantage over Anthropic with that attitude!