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AI Companies Are Trying to Hide a Staggering Amount of Debt

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Re: AI Companies Are Trying to Hide a Staggering Amount of Debt

#291

"No you guys it isn't actually an issue because it isn't." Why? "Because it isn't; okay?!" oh ok.

Meta makes $60 billion profit a year and is still crazy bloated. $420 billion in debt legitimately is not an issue for them. The only companies with actual problems are oracle and spacex

Meta making 60B a year doesn't make this any less scary.

If Meta put every cent towards their debt, it would take at least 6 years, assuming 0 interest and 0 new debt. The interest alone in the next 5-10 years likely would push it close to 1T debt.

How on earth are they meant to pay for this?

Re: AI Companies Are Trying to Hide a Staggering Amount of Debt

#292
post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is not just that they have the debt, it. is they are trying to hide the debt. Why would a legitimate company try to hide their debt?

There are many reasons to use subsidiaries for things like this, like to invite outside investment, ringfence risk, cede operational risk, and many more. This is all like CFO 101 type stuff, and not nefarious. I find it amusing that people assume the worst for things they understand little about, rather than trying to learn. Maybe the best way I can explain it to the programming crowd is this: imagine how ridiculous…

> I find it amusing that people assume the worst for things they understand little about, rather than trying to learn.

I don't know if you intended this to be exclusive of the opposite, but I do often find actually the opposite thing is true. That is people tend to be wildly, inappropriately optimistic for things they don't understand well and more likely to be skeptical in the details of things they do.

Re: AI Companies Are Trying to Hide a Staggering Amount of Debt

#294

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, but in the abstract that's just saying "if you time the market, you can beat it", and we know that generally, the only way people are able to time the market is with random luck. And more specifically, it's not low growth/high inflation that kills bond portfolio returns, it's interest rates increasing that devalue bonds, i.e. the transition from low inflation to high inflation. So yeah, you can construct a port…

In that sense, isn't the 60/40 or Boglehead perspective also timing the market, in the sense that you are betting the regime of the past will continue into the near future? To me the diversification hedge options (say GUNR) seem like they are helping you get closer to regime neutral. Or in other words you are giving up returns to cover more macro scenarios and betting less on what the future looks like.

In a macro sense, I agree with that, but it's very difficult to compete with Vanguard for the fees/overhead to hedge in more regime neutral ways.

It's effectively impossible to hedge against every possibility, including temporary drawdowns, while still having positive returns after inflation.

Re: AI Companies Are Trying to Hide a Staggering Amount of Debt

#295
Oh, that's crazy when you buy every single piece of computing hardware that's ever been made in the last five years, for inflated prices to preempt competition, then sit on it because there isn't enough electric in the entire world to power it, do you think that would be pure profit?

Re: AI Companies Are Trying to Hide a Staggering Amount of Debt

#296

Do they? Is a company with $200 billion annual revenue and earnings (EBITDA) of $100 billion having $420 billion of off-balance-sheet debt really staggering? In many other industries that would be a perfectly normal amount of debt to have. It's only unusual because we are used to tech companies having so much cash on hand they don't know where to put it

Bob spends $5 on Alice’s lemonade. Alice spends $1 on lemons from Jack. $15 on wood for the stand from Jill. Jack spends $5 on pesticide from Bob. Jill leases the plot for the tree from Jack for $10. Jack spends $5 on lemonade from Alice. Jill spends $10 on lemonade from Alice. Alice spends $3 on more lemons from Jack. Jack builds a stand to sell lemons with $20 in wood from Jill. Jill leases more land from Jack.

Take the circular money and add even more spend, even less profit, and somewhere in the background is a money tree that is about to die.

Re: AI Companies Are Trying to Hide a Staggering Amount of Debt

#297
post #267

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why do you consider bonds usury?

In many historical societies, religious prohibitions on usury meant the charging of interest of any kind . Jump in a time machine to 1515 and ask Martin Luther, or to 1260 and ask Thomas Aquinas, they'd tell you it's sinful. And in the present age, a fair number of Islamic folk consider interest against their religion's rules. So there's a Halal finance industry where, for example, you can get a "murabahah contract"…

Older than any of those:

"Thou shalt not lend upon interest to thy brother: interest of money, interest of victuals, interest of any thing that is lent upon interest" (Deut 23.20 JPS Tanakh).

Re: AI Companies Are Trying to Hide a Staggering Amount of Debt

#298
post #267

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why do you consider bonds usury?

In many historical societies, religious prohibitions on usury meant the charging of interest of any kind . Jump in a time machine to 1515 and ask Martin Luther, or to 1260 and ask Thomas Aquinas, they'd tell you it's sinful. And in the present age, a fair number of Islamic folk consider interest against their religion's rules. So there's a Halal finance industry where, for example, you can get a "murabahah contract"…

the letter but not the spirit, like Amish workers using batteries

Re: AI Companies Are Trying to Hide a Staggering Amount of Debt

#299
post #267

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why do you consider bonds usury?

In many historical societies, religious prohibitions on usury meant the charging of interest of any kind . Jump in a time machine to 1515 and ask Martin Luther, or to 1260 and ask Thomas Aquinas, they'd tell you it's sinful. And in the present age, a fair number of Islamic folk consider interest against their religion's rules. So there's a Halal finance industry where, for example, you can get a "murabahah contract"…

I love when religions have rule lawyers like this. It readily discredits the religion. As if their all powerful god can be fooled by fancy paperwork or legal loopholes.

Re: AI Companies Are Trying to Hide a Staggering Amount of Debt

#300
post #267

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I suggest looking into “EQL”, or better yet, just replicating its index by taking a position in the 11 XL* sector funds from SPDR, allocating equal weighting to each. One will end up with one’s equities equal weighted by sector and with plenty of large cap exposure, as opposed to the pronounced mid-cap tilt found in whole market equal-weight strategies. Personally, I drop the financial sector entirely (Thomistic proh…

Why do you consider bonds usury?

Because bonds involve interest. Per Summa Theologica:

> To take usury for money lent is unjust in itself, because this is to sell what does not exist, and this evidently leads to inequality which is contrary to justice.

https://www.newadvent.org/summa/3078.htm

…Aquinas expands the analysis but it is relatively straightforward: all interest is usury.

Personally, I find it helpful to imagine two hypothetical persons representing the entire economy, one the creditor who is lending and two the borrower who is taking on the loan. In this ultra simple closed model with a fixed quantity of money, the former is in effect asking for more units of money than actually exist in the whole system. When the loan comes due the borrower owes a sum that cannot be paid in full from the circulating medium itself. Settlement then requires either default, the creditor forgiving the excess, or the transfer of real goods and property to make up the difference. Scaled up, that same pressure (the continuous generation of monetary claims that exceed the existing stock of money) is what I suspect drives a good deal of the subtle and overt strain on families and communities that people so often complain of in the West and in modern growth-oriented capital societies.

This definition of usury differs from the modern loophole-definition: that interest bearing loans are only usury when the rates cross some nebulous abusive threshold. In the above Thomistic interpretation, all interest is socially problematic and disfavored. Judaism holds to a similar prohibition on interest when loans are made between Jews. Islam likewise prohibit usury even more broadly. Despite the injunction against usury in the Middle Ages Christendom and the enduring prohibitions of usury in other faiths, there are many modern Catholics and Protestants who will favor the modern interpretation over Thomas’ understanding; I’m just not one of them.

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