Live data from Hacker News

Nobody knows what a used GPU cluster is worth

ciphertalk.substack.com

81–90 of 285 posts

Re: Nobody knows what a used GPU cluster is worth

#81
Isn't it worth exactly what you can sell it for. a few ways to do this.

slow and awkward, best market match: The auction. sell to highest bidder.

faster and more customer friendly but poor market match until a lot of units sold: The store. guess price, adjust up or down to reach sell frequency desired.

fast and good market match but takes a knowledgeable customer base: The reverse auction. Start with price too high lower it over time until it sells.

Re: Nobody knows what a used GPU cluster is worth

#83
post #2

I half expect Nvidia to have buyback contacts like Ferrari with the larger customers to prevent a price crash when they all upgrade and to keep them scarce. I hope not though, perhaps I can pick up a H100 in a few years if they get sold on the open market.

The only reason a datacenter would ditch their H100 is if it becomes uneconomical to run them, with newer silicon providing much more power efficiency. When that happens they'll look like a used V100 looks today: horribly inefficient, lacking modern data types and engines, requiring screaming server fans with weird adapters to not melt, way beyond end of life in terms of cuda support. Almost completely damn useless unless you really have no other alternative.

Re: Nobody knows what a used GPU cluster is worth

#84
post #75

"Secondary market data shows moderately-used 2 to 3 year old GPUs trading at 50% to 70% of new pricing under normal conditions." That's for good NVidia H100 units.[1] There's a shortage of those. That seems to be the price after removal, cleaning, testing and refurbishing. Raw units removed from a shutdown will not be as valuable. H100 units are available on eBay, but multiple sellers are using the same picture of a…

Who is buying these at 70% of new pricing given the sky high likelihood of them being shot? Maybe it's safe to buy from small labs that went under quickly, but I can't imagine a cluster that has been operating near its thermal limits for a couple years fetching that kind of resale.

Re: Nobody knows what a used GPU cluster is worth

#85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's going to be a golden age of GPGPU compute in the next few years once A100/H100 are fully obsolete for running frontier models efficiently and the price plummets It will be perfect for stuff like GPU-accelerated query engines, "classical ML" and every other CPU-based workload that could conceivably be offloaded to GPU

GPGPU? General Purpose GPU? If embarrassingly parallel CPU algorithms weren't offloaded to the GPU previously, why would the A100/H100 price drop make a difference? We had cheap GPU in the past and we still left plenty of performance on the table with CPU programs because they were easier to build. Is the idea that previously maintaining GPU programs was expensive whereas now AI makes it cheap? If so, I could buy tha…

GPGPU programming has become significantly easier now and the payoff is bigger (better hardware), due to the immense investment in this due to ML/AI.

Re: Nobody knows what a used GPU cluster is worth

#86
post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That still doesn't tell you what GPUs will be worth in 5 years, because it depends upon what inference demand is like and what the alternatives are. What will an hour of NVL72 be worth in 2029? (And other things, that we know partially but not fully-- like what failure rate for current generation parts will be under this loading). So we have big uncertainties about the revenue, moderate uncertainty about the proporti…

Nobody knows what anything is going to be worth in 5 years.

Strictly true, but finance being able to predict this pretty closely is how the entire modern economy works.

Re: Nobody knows what a used GPU cluster is worth

#87
post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Trade-ins are voluntary.

so are buybacks. you choose to sign the contract. there's no way they didn't have an escape clause, although likely it meant not using the cloud provider anymore

> so are buybacks. you choose to sign the contract

Right, so they're not voluntary.

Re: Nobody knows what a used GPU cluster is worth

#88
post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wouldn't that be crazy - a hobbyist market for H100s? Maybe someone could start a business buying up and rehousing these.

The GPU alone has a TDP of 700W, together with everything else (CPU, RAM, storage, fans) you're looking at 1500W+. Depending on the country, that may be enough to saturate your home's electricity uplink...

Never heard electrical uplink before but to those wondering Italy, India, and Japan all have requirements around 3kw. I was slightly surprised by this, but in the end if your running this in a tiny space with that low of power your already probably not buying used H100s.

Re: Nobody knows what a used GPU cluster is worth

#89

> The job of an operations team is to keep all of this in steady state. They know which racks run hot in summer, which cooling loops have been flaky since the last firmware update, which jobs to re-route when a node degrades but has not failed yet. None of that knowledge is written down. It lives in the team. Hmmn. All of this information should live in the monitoring system, in which case any frontier model will be…

It's generated prose; the author's understanding doesn't factor in, because they didn't actually write it.
Post reply on HN