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Show HN: Read the Tape – Wordle for daytrading, five blind S&P 500 charts a day

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Re: Show HN: Read the Tape – Wordle for daytrading, five blind S&P 500 charts a day

#41

Post by nightski »

spizder wrote: post #38
impendia wrote: post #9

This is fascinating. That said, if it's possible to do better than random guessing, then does this reflect the fact that the five charts are presumably hand-selected to be "interesting"? My naive guess, and I'd be very curious to learn if this were wrong, is that something very close to the efficient market hypothesis is true; that, if it were possible to beat the monkeys on randomly chosen stocks on random dates, th…

> That said, if it's possible to do better than random guessing Yes - by always picking Up. Random stock on a random day has 53-55% chance of closing higher. Over 5 days, you will be right ~60% 1996–2016: 53.3% of days were positive. 2016–2021: 54.9% of days saw gains.

The baseline is the market average, not 0.

Re: Show HN: Read the Tape – Wordle for daytrading, five blind S&P 500 charts a day

#44

Post by fomoz »

Thanks for posting. It's an interesting concept, but needs some work in my opinion.

First, that chart is super zoomed in. You can't zoom out or switch timeframes. You're not told how many bars you need to predict. You're not told the dates or what the stock is.

Not much you can see there other than a handful of candles, that's doesn't really tell you much.

If the stock and dates are a secret so people don't cheat, I don't see why. People can cheat on Wordle or Worldle, and they're still fun to play. But here you're basically just guessing, you have so little information it's basically a coin flip.

Re: Show HN: Read the Tape – Wordle for daytrading, five blind S&P 500 charts a day

#46

Post by sefcon »

gizajob wrote: post #17
will_asouka wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If I was going to add 3 more indicators, what should they be? And/or more history?

Well the map is not the territory. Just because there’s been a big gap down on a chart that wasn’t the chart doing that, the chart displays that as some kind of causal event like an earnings release or something the company has done to make the market react. So I don’t know what kind of Quant can look at that sparse TA data knowing nothing else about the company and make those calls accurately or know how to size the…

Exactly — chart-only TA is tough without fundamentals context. For Korean markets this is even more pronounced since retail flow dominates. I've been working on fundamental data for KOSPI/KOSDAQ if you ever want to add an Asian market mode.

Re: Show HN: Read the Tape – Wordle for daytrading, five blind S&P 500 charts a day

#48

Post by gizajob »

sefcon wrote: post #46
gizajob wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well the map is not the territory. Just because there’s been a big gap down on a chart that wasn’t the chart doing that, the chart displays that as some kind of causal event like an earnings release or something the company has done to make the market react. So I don’t know what kind of Quant can look at that sparse TA data knowing nothing else about the company and make those calls accurately or know how to size the…

Exactly — chart-only TA is tough without fundamentals context. For Korean markets this is even more pronounced since retail flow dominates. I've been working on fundamental data for KOSPI/KOSDAQ if you ever want to add an Asian market mode.

Do you have any links to find out more about this? Because the Korean market reads like some kind of addict-driven basket case and I’m getting bored of waking up in the morning and finding they’ve burned valuations to the ground again. What’s your take about the retail flows and the fundamental data on the KOSPI?

Re: Show HN: Read the Tape – Wordle for daytrading, five blind S&P 500 charts a day

#49

Post by valkmit »

stouset wrote: post #32
valkmit wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are plenty of known effects that are relatively simple to automate Holding overnight risk yields superior risk-adjusted returns. Buying end of month and dumping few days into new month. There are dozens of such effects These have mechanical reasons for their outperformance - overnight risk has to do with how borrow interest rates for equity markets are calculated and firms unwilling to hold unhedged exposure ov…

You cannot in the same breath argue that there are simple market strategies that offer superior risk-adjusted returns, and then claim that big money won’t go after it because they can’t get out. There are more actors in the market than just Citadel. For starters there are day traders at virtually every wealth level and with every level of risk tolerance. Someone —or more accurately, many someones—with more money, bet…

I work for a quant firm. I am not speculating, but speaking authoritatively - the effects I've stated exist, the specific examples I've given can be captured by retail, and they can deliver outsized returns.

It seems mind boggling that there can be simple effects like this to capture to someone who hasn't worked in the industry, but everything I've said remains true regardless of what you may mistakenly believe

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