ICE to Pay Thomson Reuters $125M to Find Voter Fraud • Hacker News Board

Re: ICE to Pay Thomson Reuters $125M to Find Voter Fraud

#141

Post by blooalien » Tue, Jul 21, 2026, 10:34 PM UTC

HEmanZ wrote: post #134

luxuryballs wrote: post #111

Earlier quoted context omitted.

for the sake of the smart ones can we at least check? or how much intelligence does one need in order to qualify as a citizen worthy of trustable elections?

Did you not read the point? We. Have. Checked. Over. And . Over. We have multiple layers of checks. We have cross checks. We already invest a ton into this. You are proving my example by presupposing there are no checks and that investigations never happen. You are the person saying “please think of the children and install smoke detectors” when they are already installed.

> for the sake of the smart ones can we at least check?

>> You are proving my example by presupposing there are no checks and that investigations never happen. You are the person saying “please think of the children and install smoke detectors” when they are already installed.

I think they're saying "Can we at least check the batteries in the smoke detectors to be sure everything's cool there?" without taking into account that in addition to there already being smoke detectors with batteries, there's also already multiple layers of maintenance schedule and checks in place to ensure that they always have a fresh battery and regular testing to ensure they function as expected.

Re: ICE to Pay Thomson Reuters $125M to Find Voter Fraud

#142

Post by Henchman21 » Tue, Jul 21, 2026, 10:58 PM UTC

Varelion wrote: post #98

imglorp wrote: post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They are trying to confuse voter fraud with election fraud so they can justify ICE election interference in November. There are only a small handful of voter fraud cases per year: someone tried to vote for a dead relative or whatever. Never enough to change an outcome. https://factually.co/fact-checks/politics/how-many-cases-of-... On the other hand, potentially far more impactful is election fraud and election inter…

I can't believe this is how the guise of democracy in this country dies.

I hate to break it to you, but it was never real. It’s always been a sham, a charade, a farce. We’re not even remotely honest with ourselves about much of anything in public… So IMO we get what we deserve.

Re: ICE to Pay Thomson Reuters $125M to Find Voter Fraud

#143

Post by epistasis » Tue, Jul 21, 2026, 11:46 PM UTC

FireBeyond wrote: post #131

luxuryballs wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem is that if you look with an inquisitive eye without having a preference on the outcome there's no way to tell because of the margins in just a few districts, all that is sure is that the Constitution was followed and the valid electors chose the President (which is a major reason why it is designed that way).

The very right wing Heritage Foundation spent millions looking for voter fraud, and found that, at -most-, 1 in 700,000 votes was fraudulent, in Wisconsin (69 out of 45 million votes cast over 20 years). Generally the number is higher than 1 in a million, up to 1 in 3 million. You'd think, if anything, a right wing organization would be trying to prop up Trump's claims... but yet...

Exactly, it is in fact very informative to look through their examples, because it shows a very robust system that's catching very very rare cases, and if there were more widespread fraud it would be very evident through the same mechanisms used to catch these very very rare cases:

https://electionfraud.heritage.org/

Every case I checked was something like this, here are two that I randomly clicked on from my state right now:

> Alex Campbell, Republican city councilman and mayor pro tem of Crescent City, California, falsely claimed his residence was within city limits when submitting his candidacy for councilman. Campbell was charged with two felony counts of perjury and one count of false declaration of his candidacy and pleaded guilty to one count of making a false declaration of candidacy. He faces up to two years of probation and $20,000 in fines for his charge. https://electionfraud.heritage.org/case/200148

> Nickey Huntley was involved in a scheme that offered cigarettes and money to homeless people on Skid Row in exchange for fake signatures on ballot initiatives and voter registration forms. This resulted in hundreds of fraudulent signatures. He pleaded no contest to one felony count of circulating an initiative or petition containing false, forged or fictitious names. Huntley was sentenced to 3 years’ probation. https://electionfraud.heritage.org/case/201251

Re: ICE to Pay Thomson Reuters $125M to Find Voter Fraud

#144

Post by saghm » Wed, Jul 22, 2026, 12:09 AM UTC

ktm5j wrote: post #127

saghm wrote: post #107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The type of people who have been worked up about supposed voter fraud have rejected all existing evidence, so I don't know why you'd expect this go do any differently. Let's not forget that ICE has already admitted to lying directly to courts about the justification for their actions[1]; there's absolutely no reason to enable them in digging for more info. At absolute best, they're in a wild goose chase based on our…

Well presumably they might take this evidence seriously, since this time they're the ones who hired someone to do the research. Which is why I feel (maybe overly) optimistic that this might finally settle the issue.

Recent history would indicate that this will not work out the way you're describing: https://www.propublica.org/article/maricopa-county-arizona-e...

Re: ICE to Pay Thomson Reuters $125M to Find Voter Fraud

#145

Post by gcanyon » Wed, Jul 22, 2026, 12:30 AM UTC

gbear605 wrote: post #92

gcanyon wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wow, 97% that there will be elections. That's high, but if you handed me a gun with a 3% chance of being loaded and offered me a billion dollars to point it at my head and pull the trigger, I would not. My foot on the other hand...

It's worth noting that Polymarket (and all other prediction markets using money) has some fundamental problems that cause inaccuracy. Most notably here, the elections are still several months out, so you're asking people to put up 97 cents to get a dollar back in three months. But for that time frame I could also put 97 cents in treasuries and get 98 cents back, so the market won't be accurate within 1% of reality, a…

Good thoughts, thanks

Re: ICE to Pay Thomson Reuters $125M to Find Voter Fraud

#146

Post by HEmanZ » Wed, Jul 22, 2026, 1:48 AM UTC

blooalien wrote: post #141

HEmanZ wrote: post #134

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Did you not read the point? We. Have. Checked. Over. And . Over. We have multiple layers of checks. We have cross checks. We already invest a ton into this. You are proving my example by presupposing there are no checks and that investigations never happen. You are the person saying “please think of the children and install smoke detectors” when they are already installed.

> for the sake of the smart ones can we at least check? >> You are proving my example by presupposing there are no checks and that investigations never happen. You are the person saying “please think of the children and install smoke detectors” when they are already installed. I think they're saying "Can we at least check the batteries in the smoke detectors to be sure everything's cool there?" without taking into ac…

Motte and Bailey.

That again presupposes no one is or has done that.

It’s like “I declare we need to check the batteries and maintenance!” because the previous maintenance reports didn’t show as many busted alarms as you want, because your ego is tied to the idea that the smoke alarms don’t work.

Re: ICE to Pay Thomson Reuters $125M to Find Voter Fraud

#147

Post by xboxnolifes » Wed, Jul 22, 2026, 6:41 AM UTC

gbear605 wrote: post #92

gcanyon wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wow, 97% that there will be elections. That's high, but if you handed me a gun with a 3% chance of being loaded and offered me a billion dollars to point it at my head and pull the trigger, I would not. My foot on the other hand...

It's worth noting that Polymarket (and all other prediction markets using money) has some fundamental problems that cause inaccuracy. Most notably here, the elections are still several months out, so you're asking people to put up 97 cents to get a dollar back in three months. But for that time frame I could also put 97 cents in treasuries and get 98 cents back, so the market won't be accurate within 1% of reality, a…

Plus the percent chance that Polymarket doesn't accurately resolve the market. It'll never hit 100% odds because there's value in buying the the 1,000,000 to 1 odds and maybe turning $1 into $1,000,000 from an administrative issue on the market.

Re: ICE to Pay Thomson Reuters $125M to Find Voter Fraud

#148

Post by iso1631 » Wed, Jul 22, 2026, 7:06 AM UTC

epistasis wrote: post #89

iso1631 wrote: post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> This is shocking Is it really? Have you been asleep for the last decade?

Having ICE buy data from a data broker to fabricate evidence for a well disproven conspiracy theory? This is still shocking, absolutely shocking! I will retain my right to be shocked and angry about government overreach, thanks.

Shocking suggests something unexpected

Re: ICE to Pay Thomson Reuters $125M to Find Voter Fraud

#149

Post by baranul » Wed, Jul 22, 2026, 10:49 AM UTC

Varelion wrote: post #98

imglorp wrote: post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They are trying to confuse voter fraud with election fraud so they can justify ICE election interference in November. There are only a small handful of voter fraud cases per year: someone tried to vote for a dead relative or whatever. Never enough to change an outcome. https://factually.co/fact-checks/politics/how-many-cases-of-... On the other hand, potentially far more impactful is election fraud and election inter…

I can't believe this is how the guise of democracy in this country dies.

> guise of democracy

That's a very appropriate term. There has always been various forces who either believe the majority of citizens don't deserve democracy or that they are above it.

Re: ICE to Pay Thomson Reuters $125M to Find Voter Fraud

#150

Post by addandsubtract » Wed, Jul 22, 2026, 11:41 AM UTC

gbear605 wrote: post #92

gcanyon wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wow, 97% that there will be elections. That's high, but if you handed me a gun with a 3% chance of being loaded and offered me a billion dollars to point it at my head and pull the trigger, I would not. My foot on the other hand...

It's worth noting that Polymarket (and all other prediction markets using money) has some fundamental problems that cause inaccuracy. Most notably here, the elections are still several months out, so you're asking people to put up 97 cents to get a dollar back in three months. But for that time frame I could also put 97 cents in treasuries and get 98 cents back, so the market won't be accurate within 1% of reality, a…

You can sell your bet at any time, though. So if you put $100 on NO while it's at 3¢ and then sell them next week at 4¢, you're getting $133 back. You're not necessarily betting on the outcome, but on the sentiment over time.