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Show HN: Read the Tape – Wordle for daytrading, five blind S&P 500 charts a day

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Re: Show HN: Read the Tape – Wordle for daytrading, five blind S&P 500 charts a day

#11

Post by will_asouka »

impendia wrote: post #9

This is fascinating. That said, if it's possible to do better than random guessing, then does this reflect the fact that the five charts are presumably hand-selected to be "interesting"? My naive guess, and I'd be very curious to learn if this were wrong, is that something very close to the efficient market hypothesis is true; that, if it were possible to beat the monkeys on randomly chosen stocks on random dates, th…

They're from a seeded random draw. Random S&P 500 stock, random 60-day window that's at least 12 months old, every player gets identical charts. Gemini writes the narrative vignette.

Your instinct is pretty spot on. 6,000+ calls in: players state ~74% average confidence but hit ~54%, and accuracy is basically flat across confidence brackets. Up only strategy quietly beats the coin flipping monkeys but players call down 43% of the time.

Re: Show HN: Read the Tape – Wordle for daytrading, five blind S&P 500 charts a day

#14

Post by gizajob »

It’s a fun game and it throws funny shade for getting the answers wrong, but who would have guessed and sized these answers right based on this sparse data without any additional context? There’s barely enough data in the charts to do TA properly.

Re: Show HN: Read the Tape – Wordle for daytrading, five blind S&P 500 charts a day

#15

Post by will_asouka »

gizajob wrote: post #14

It’s a fun game and it throws funny shade for getting the answers wrong, but who would have guessed and sized these answers right based on this sparse data without any additional context? There’s barely enough data in the charts to do TA properly.

If I was going to add 3 more indicators, what should they be? And/or more history?

Re: Show HN: Read the Tape – Wordle for daytrading, five blind S&P 500 charts a day

#16

Post by mdemare »

impendia wrote: post #9

This is fascinating. That said, if it's possible to do better than random guessing, then does this reflect the fact that the five charts are presumably hand-selected to be "interesting"? My naive guess, and I'd be very curious to learn if this were wrong, is that something very close to the efficient market hypothesis is true; that, if it were possible to beat the monkeys on randomly chosen stocks on random dates, th…

The interesting answer by the author, will_asouka, has been marked 'dead' for some inscrutable reason.

Re: Show HN: Read the Tape – Wordle for daytrading, five blind S&P 500 charts a day

#17

Post by gizajob »

will_asouka wrote: post #15
gizajob wrote: post #14

It’s a fun game and it throws funny shade for getting the answers wrong, but who would have guessed and sized these answers right based on this sparse data without any additional context? There’s barely enough data in the charts to do TA properly.

If I was going to add 3 more indicators, what should they be? And/or more history?

Well the map is not the territory. Just because there’s been a big gap down on a chart that wasn’t the chart doing that, the chart displays that as some kind of causal event like an earnings release or something the company has done to make the market react. So I don’t know what kind of Quant can look at that sparse TA data knowing nothing else about the company and make those calls accurately or know how to size the positions. One random money in a crowd will randomly do better than trying to sensibly do TA with this data.

Maybe Volume would be useful though.

Re: Show HN: Read the Tape – Wordle for daytrading, five blind S&P 500 charts a day

#20

Post by will_asouka »

gizajob wrote: post #17
will_asouka wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If I was going to add 3 more indicators, what should they be? And/or more history?

Well the map is not the territory. Just because there’s been a big gap down on a chart that wasn’t the chart doing that, the chart displays that as some kind of causal event like an earnings release or something the company has done to make the market react. So I don’t know what kind of Quant can look at that sparse TA data knowing nothing else about the company and make those calls accurately or know how to size the…

Volume is on there but not shown until toggled on. Yeah making it blind on company and broader macro/market movements is what produces some of the the jeopardy, and outperforming the random monkeys turns out to be a bit tougher than some players might be expecting.
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