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My falling-out with the rationalist community

lcamtuf.substack.com

131–140 of 175 posts

Re: My falling-out with the rationalist community

#131
post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> We probably understand this word very differently, because as far as I'm concerned, rationality (rational behavior) is essentially an exercise in behaving optimally, one that is thus strictly relative to some particular context. No, that's completely consistent with my understanding. Adopting identity labels doesn't follow from that, however.

The parent comment has been talking about exactly people who have been turning this into an identity: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rationalist_community If this doesn't apply to you, great, but then we're talking past each other.

And my point is that according to the works that supposedly motivate them, they are explicitly not supposed to do that; furthermore, I'm not actually convinced that they are doing it on anything like the scale that critics allege.

(And no, forming a "community" does not make for an identity. I don't think of myself as a "HN user" and I would certainly never introduce myself that way offline. Similarly for Stack Overflow back when it was relevant, or anything else.)

Re: My falling-out with the rationalist community

#132
post #114

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ok, less wrong every day; we have some rationalists here, whether you think yourself as rational or not let's get an idea of how rational you actually are: do you agree with the views of @tenobrus mentioned below ( https://xcancel.com/tenobrus/status/2023473440364392850 ), specifically that humanity should be placed under a dictatorship? I know he's EA, but let's not pretend that EA is so distinct from the rationalis…

I'm not a rationalist and I don't know who these people are. As far as I can tell they're a bunch of online weirdos who don't matter. But as for that statement, "humanity will be far far better off if they're subjected to the values of effective altruists," that depends on the values in question, which haven't been explained in this thread. But there is definitely a set of values that exists that humanity would be be…

There might (might, see later) be a set of values, but there definitely isn't anyone or anything that, given dictatorial powers, can be trusted in applying such values forever fairly without abusing or misusing their power.

I'm far from sure that even the rationalists' god-like AI could play that role, even in the extremely unlikely hypothesis that it will materialize at some point.

Not to mention that the best set of values could change with the circumstances, and most of all values are a vague concept, WAY too vague to make a dictator behave properly in all circumstances, even if he were somehow compelled to always follow them.

> humanity would be better off if the other political party was gone [and my political party had sole power]"

Even people wishing that don't necessarily long for a dictatorship, far from it; you could wish for the party you loathe to not exist, but still want everything else of your democratic system to stay unchanged (the possible parties are infinite, removing one doesn't necessarily turn your system into a single-party system).

Re: My falling-out with the rationalist community

#133
post #114

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ok, less wrong every day; we have some rationalists here, whether you think yourself as rational or not let's get an idea of how rational you actually are: do you agree with the views of @tenobrus mentioned below ( https://xcancel.com/tenobrus/status/2023473440364392850 ), specifically that humanity should be placed under a dictatorship? I know he's EA, but let's not pretend that EA is so distinct from the rationalis…

I'm not a rationalist and I don't know who these people are. As far as I can tell they're a bunch of online weirdos who don't matter. But as for that statement, "humanity will be far far better off if they're subjected to the values of effective altruists," that depends on the values in question, which haven't been explained in this thread. But there is definitely a set of values that exists that humanity would be be…

What you wrote means that you're potentially in favor of a dictatorship, by the way?

Can I ask you if it's an idea you developed yourself or you read about it somewhere?

Re: My falling-out with the rationalist community

#134
post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not just that they aren't free of bias. They appear to incubate truly wacky stuff - Leverage Research [1], the Zizians, all the AI/x-risk stuff. I am not the only person to have noticed this [2]. There's something about their approach that appears to actually make people more susceptible to nonsense, not less. [1] https://lydialaurenson.substack.com/p/the-inside-story-of-le... [2] https://asteriskmag.com/issues/…

>There's something about their approach that appears to actually make people more susceptible to nonsense, not less. It would be highly surprising if an open-access online community with the kind of slogans that might be particularly appealing to somewhat spectrumy individuals did not occasionally attract some eccentrics. The point I am trying to make here is that these are pretty fringe offshots and are far from the…

What would you say are the views of the community as a whole, those shared by most of its members?

Re: My falling-out with the rationalist community

#135
post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Regarding the Zizians, I recommend the Behind the Bastards series on them and the rationalist community. People involved with the rationalists will want to distance themselves from it of course, but the series makes a decent argument that the Zizians were simply the result of taking the ideology to its rational conclusion, that there is a definite throughline from one to the other in terms of philosophy and ideals. h…

The author here clearly is extremely superficially familiar with the writings of rationalist people and views them from a preconceived standpoint. Comparing beliefs of Yudkowsky to dianetics is nothing short of misguided, whether you like him or not. This is a textbook study of motivated reasoning.

Aren't rationalists supposed to be objective and motivate their claims, rather than belittling any critic with unsubstantiated statements?

> This is a textbook study of motivated reasoning

What would be his motive, why would he have preconceptions about you?

Could it be that it's your messages here that are motivated, and with scarce reasoning?

Re: My falling-out with the rationalist community

#136
post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It didn't take long before a strawman got pulled out of nowhere. It's not a strawman. It's a central example of what I had in mind when I used the word "axiom". > if one disagrees with the wild conjectures of the rationalists, which they call "axioms" They don't refer to wild conjectures as axioms. > they blame you for rejecting the Pythagorean Theorem or some such. There is no "blame" going on here. Someone said I…

Go back and reread yourself in this thread. 1. Someone says they don't like rationalism 2. You say there's no such thing 3. Someone else suggests your defense of rationalism is materially similar to how scientologists defend their cult 4. You say "nuh-uh because Bayes' theorem is true"??? That's such a weird non-sequitur. Nothing before had anything to do with Bayes. That is just a straw man you constructed to argue…

> Go back and reread yourself in this thread.

I know perfectly well what I said in this thread and don't need to re-read it. It wasn't long.

> You say "nuh-uh because Bayes' theorem is true"???

No, that isn't at all what I said.

First off, it makes no sense for the other party to characterize my "defense of rationalism" in any manner, because I was not offering such a thing. When I say that something doesn't exist, that isn't defending the thing. The thing cannot be "defended" if it doesn't exist in the first place!

Second, I very clearly did not deny any "material similarity". I said that any such material similarity does not matter.

Third, the truth of Bayes' theorem is not why I am correct, and that's also clearly not what I asserted. Rather, Bayes' theorem is an example of what I am correct about.

There is no non-sequitur there; you misrepresent the argument completely. I did not construct a strawman; I merely gave an example of what "rational beliefs" (which are, again, not articles of faith) entail. The point is that, by the same reasoning, you could equally well make out the hard sciences in general to be "cults". If you think you can look at a title for a work like "The Sequences" and instantly map that to "ooh, scary religious canon!", why does the same not apply to, say, Euclid's Elements?

The only strawmanning here is on your part.

I have no idea what strange or harmful articles of faith other people ITT seem to have in mind. Someone mentioned Roko's Basilisk, and as far as I can tell this is the closest the thread got; but that frankly doesn't qualify, either. It's just a proposed consequence of a particular decision theory, and most of the people who care about that decision theory seem to think it's fallacious. (Whether they can propose a fallacy within that theory, or think that this is a proof-by-contradiction refutation of the theory, I don't really know. Personally I think the latter is far more likely.) If it were actually an article of faith, you would see the equivalent of street preachers using it to solicit donations to MIRI. As far as I've been shown, that doesn't actually happen.

But since I haven't been given any better examples than that, I can't argue against them. No, "the Zizians exist(ed)" doesn't count here, first off because nobody's identified any articles of faith they held; second because nobody's drawn any connection between those and any actual principles of rationality.

Re: My falling-out with the rationalist community

#137
post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> You do realize you sound exactly like a cult member right? If you say so. That doesn't change the fact that P(A|B) = P(B|A)P(A)/P(B).

There is nothing I could possibly say to convince you otherwise, in the same EXACT way I couldn't convince a scientologist that their thetan levels are nonsense. It was never the argument that conditional probability or other mathematics is wrong, nobody is ever arguing that, but that is all you disciples ever argue against. You are all deeply uneducated and unserious people believing to "reason" yourselves to some h…

> There is nothing I could possibly say to convince you otherwise, in the same EXACT way I couldn't convince a scientologist that their thetan levels are nonsense.

What on Earth are you talking about?

What is the supposed nonsense that I am supposedly convinced about?

> but that is all you disciples ever argue against.

Who is a "disciple"? First off, it's perfectly possible to defend members of groups that one doesn't identify with. But also I don't think the group is a natural category to begin with. I think it is outsiders that are thinking of them as a group to critique them.

> You are all deeply uneducated and unserious people

What education do you suppose is lacking here, and what is your evidence for it being lacking? Who are you to draw conclusions about the degrees of random groups of people?

> believing to "reason" yourselves to some higher "truth"

Can you show an example of the fallacious reasoning you've observed, and explain how it connects to anything that people like Yudkowsky or Alexander ever said?

> using some WILDLY misappropriated and misunderstood mathematical principles.

Can you show an example of such misappropriation or misunderstanding?

Re: My falling-out with the rationalist community

#138

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Very much this. I've been to a couple rationalist events in the Bay during peak rationalism (originally with an open mind but eventually resorted to gawking after people couldn't handle "but why..." style questions and prodding which is the norm in my line of work and past academic experience) and it was truly weird seeing supposedly well educated people fall for such obvious cult-like traps. In hindsight, I guess th…

> couple rationalist events Was this run by match.com?

"couple of". The preposition is often omitted in casual speech.

Re: My falling-out with the rationalist community

#139
post #103
post #35

> For one, their analyses almost always amounted to post hoc justifications of the things they liked. "Almost always" is carrying a lot of weight here. Rationalists are ideologically diverse [1] when it comes to things like monogamy vs polyamory, left vs right, pro-AI vs anti-AI, nature vs nurture, racism vs anti-racism. The distribution is different from the general population, but many people have changed their min…

On those survey results several items show a 5 item bar chart with the bars labeled 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 showing the counts and percentages of respondents who chose 1, 2, 3, 4, or 5. For example, "Do you prefer modern or older architecture?" shows 20% chose 1, 34.6% chose 2, 25.6% chose 3, 15% chose 4, and 4.8% chose 5. WTF does this mean? I don'e see anything that says what those labels mean. I'd guess for questions asking…

> I'd guess for questions asking X or Y they mean X, lean X, no preference, lean Y, and Y

Yes; https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Likert_scale

> but in what order? ... One such chart is simply titled "Global Warming". What does it mean to answer "2" to that?

These things become clear by cross-referencing with the actual survey (https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLScZLCk8_L64hen93A2g...).

Re: My falling-out with the rationalist community

#140
post #4

> Timecube was an incoherent stream-of-consciousness website filled with bizarre cosmological claims. Was? Timecube.net will outlive any and all faddy Silicon Valley cults.

The original timecube.com died (domain registration expiration) in 2015 (shortly after its creator) and timecube.net is a reboot from 2023 (and I can find nothing tying it to the estate or anything like that).
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