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Earlier quoted context omitted.
https://epoch.ai/data-insights/ai-chip-production from the beginning of 2026 claimed global AI compute capacity was doubling every 7 months.
> from the beginning of 2026 claimed global AI compute capacity was doubling every 7 months. That's definitely one way to say "it doubled this year"
Earlier quoted context omitted.
https://epoch.ai/data-insights/ai-chip-production from the beginning of 2026 claimed global AI compute capacity was doubling every 7 months.
Graphs like this are all I can think of when I see unsustainable euphoria like above. https://www.bigtrends.com/education/lessons-from-the-past-10...
I think it more resembles the "content" of our era.
https://refactoringenglish.com/blog/why-i-stopped-creating-c...
Yes but how much of that compute shortage is from demand that is subsidized? We’ve seen companies like Uber drastically cut how much they are willing to spend on AI because they are paying actual usage costs, while at the same time OpenAI and Anthropic increase the limits on their fixed cost plans for individuals meaning people not paying usage costs are using it more and more… doesn’t this show that the compute shor…
Yes but how much of that compute shortage is from demand that is subsidized? We’ve seen companies like Uber drastically cut how much they are willing to spend on AI because they are paying actual usage costs, while at the same time OpenAI and Anthropic increase the limits on their fixed cost plans for individuals meaning people not paying usage costs are using it more and more… doesn’t this show that the compute shor…
GPUs aren’t scarce. There is just a lot of demand, so prices have gone up. Anyone can get GPUs right now and build out what they need; it’s just a matter of paying more for them than the next company. I’ve been looking at building a multi-TB HBM system lately and they’re readily available - they just cost $400k.
What does "scarce" mean to you?
I'd wager that to most reasonable people it means "available in a supply that, measured against demand, is low". Market forces typically react to such a state by pushing prices up. Saying "they're not scarce, they're just expensive" is just silly.
The exception to this would be during e.g. supply chain hiccups (lots of compute sitting there, unable to get to its operational destination) or when other forces artificially push up prices. But that's not what we're seeing here. Compute is much scarcer than it's been for years.
If instead of us training the models to be human utility maximizers, the models had figured out how to train us to maximize their own utility, could we tell the difference?
Yes but how much of that compute shortage is from demand that is subsidized? We’ve seen companies like Uber drastically cut how much they are willing to spend on AI because they are paying actual usage costs, while at the same time OpenAI and Anthropic increase the limits on their fixed cost plans for individuals meaning people not paying usage costs are using it more and more… doesn’t this show that the compute shor…
GPUs aren’t scarce. There is just a lot of demand, so prices have gone up. Anyone can get GPUs right now and build out what they need; it’s just a matter of paying more for them than the next company. I’ve been looking at building a multi-TB HBM system lately and they’re readily available - they just cost $400k.