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Kimi K3, Qwen 3.8, and Anthropic's (Potential) Unravelling

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Re: Kimi K3, Qwen 3.8, and Anthropic's (Potential) Unravelling

#311

Post by aaronharnly »

jackb4040 wrote: post #249
JacobAsmuth wrote: post #168

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Agreed 100%. This guy thinks there's a limit on the demand for intelligence. You think that Fable 7 which can run a billion dollar corporation on its own has no consumer demand just because we have fable 5 at 9k tok/s? Who do you think will be the biggest customer of such a model? Fable 7, obviously.

Sorry, which billion-dollar corporation is Fable running "on its own"?

They imagined a "Fable 7" model (i.e. two generations hence) which would be capable of such feats.

Re: Kimi K3, Qwen 3.8, and Anthropic's (Potential) Unravelling

#312

Post by potsandpans »

port3000 wrote: post #50

It's amazing how quickly Fable went from 'Game-changing model that needs to be banned' to 'Yeah it's alright, but OpenAI is also just as good and there are a couple of good open weight alternatives that are equivalent for almost everything' The hype cycles are shortening, perhaps we really are reaching some kind of plateau this time (famous last words)

Almost like the company has no credibility with respect to its safety claims.

Re: Kimi K3, Qwen 3.8, and Anthropic's (Potential) Unravelling

#313

Post by notnullorvoid »

torginus wrote: post #32

Upper bound of AI progress - recursive self improvement. In this case AI will be responsible for building better models, making people who own datacenters the winners. Anthropic/OAI is cooked. Lower bound of AI progress - plateau. Progess is slowing, focus is on serving a meaningful peak capability at the lowest possible price. There's been news today that Google is building a Gemini chip with weights baked into sili…

> So their survival rests on the presumption that AI progress will fall between these two extremes.

That feels like a very generous framing. There's very little opportunity between the extremes that would paint a convincing outlook of survival for either company.

Perhaps if they were able to scale down their spending drastically they could survive, but that requires acknowledging their current valuations are BS. Doing so is a major risk, that will piss off all share holders. There's also the employees they would need to fire or reduce salary. The shift of focus internally to sustainability would be a major challenge.

Re: Kimi K3, Qwen 3.8, and Anthropic's (Potential) Unravelling

#314

Post by adventured »

mullingitover wrote: post #192
LarsDu88 wrote: post #48

The open weight, open architecture releases of the past several days has me more convinced that ultimately, the winner will be whoever burns their models to ASICs fastest. The LLMs themselves are capable of doing some aspects of chip design as evinced by the K3 press release. Furthermore, the frontier models are "good enough" for a wide swathe of tasks and will soon hit that threshold for a good amount of software en…

> the winner will be whoever burns their models to ASICs fastest. It'll obviously be China, and they won't need the bleeding edge of lithography tech to make it happen. Every Chinese smartphone will have something like Sonnet 5, along your car (well, not those of us in the US, but we'll look longingly at pictures of them while we drive whatever the government decides we're allowed to drive in Fortress America). Give…

China won in desktop PCs? Nope.

China won in cloud services? Nope, not even close. They had to clone AWS just to try to keep up.

China won in mobile? Nope. Although they're very competitive there.

China won in search? Nope. Baidu who?

China won in ecommerce? Nope. Their dominance is overwhelmingly domestic.

China won in software? Nope. Windows is US. Android is US. iOS is US. MacOS is US. Linux is US/Europe/Global. Look at the top 50 largest software companies.

China won in silicon? Nope. Look at the top 50 companies.

China won in .... India and Latin America can manufacture iPhones now.

But sure, China's the obvious winner this time. Good luck.

Re: Kimi K3, Qwen 3.8, and Anthropic's (Potential) Unravelling

#315

Post by topspin »

throwawayffffas wrote: post #273
LarsDu88 wrote: post #48

The open weight, open architecture releases of the past several days has me more convinced that ultimately, the winner will be whoever burns their models to ASICs fastest. The LLMs themselves are capable of doing some aspects of chip design as evinced by the K3 press release. Furthermore, the frontier models are "good enough" for a wide swathe of tasks and will soon hit that threshold for a good amount of software en…

> whoever burns their models to ASICs fastest. There is already custom hardware see cerebras. GPUs have a lot of slack there is at least one lab that had a (small 8b) model generate almost 3000 tokens per second on a MI300X for a talk, instead of the typical software stack that did maybe 100ish tokens per second. High bandwidth flash storage is in the works, i.e hard drives with TBs of storage and over 1 TB per secon…

> Meaning that in a couple of years you may

There is no "may" here. You will see this.

It's always difficult to see it from the present, but we're not at some end stage in hardware development; we're still on the same curve our predecessors also couldn't see: they couldn't imagine that there would be high performance computers carried in our pockets, with staggering amounts of storage and compute, putting to shame the machines they filled rooms with.

Re: Kimi K3, Qwen 3.8, and Anthropic's (Potential) Unravelling

#316

Post by DesiLurker »

mattdeboard wrote: post #205
overgard wrote: post #14

I keep thinking about the Figma thing. If you're unaware, here's the google summary: ---- The Board Departure: Mike Krieger, Anthropic’s CPO and a co-founder of Instagram, sat on Figma’s board of directors. He resigned on April 14, just days before news of Claude Design broke. This sparked speculation over conflict of interest and the use of proprietary product strategy information. Betrayal of Partnership: The launc…

Your last two sentences remind me of the olden days of people building applications on top of FB and Twitter APIs (and later, Reddit), only to to have the rug pulled out from under them in one way or another

even before that, by some accounts I hear the reason VCs over invested in dot com was primarily because they saw something that could not easily usurped by Microsoft by releasing their own sh*tty copy. so they all piled in and then bubble dynamics took over.

story as old as internet itself!

Re: Kimi K3, Qwen 3.8, and Anthropic's (Potential) Unravelling

#317

Post by dymk »

oliyoung wrote: post #275
dymk wrote: post #271

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am really confused about the point you're trying to make. 150tok/s is slow, but so is 9000tok/s? Or they're both fast? Or 150tok/s should be enough?

The "640k should be enough for anyone" quote (even if Gates didn't exactly say it) is making the point is that _right now_ we have no idea about what our future needs and capabilities will be, we can't imagine what "should be enough" will be 640k was enough ... in 1981 ... almost fifty years later is 50,000 lower than a standard off the shelf PC now

If that’s the case I still don’t get it. 640k was enough in 1981, same as how 150 (or 9k) tok/sec would suffice for 2026

The comment seems like the nerd equivalent of 6 7

Re: Kimi K3, Qwen 3.8, and Anthropic's (Potential) Unravelling

#318

Post by noman-land »

xtracto wrote: post #218
torginus wrote: post #32

Upper bound of AI progress - recursive self improvement. In this case AI will be responsible for building better models, making people who own datacenters the winners. Anthropic/OAI is cooked. Lower bound of AI progress - plateau. Progess is slowing, focus is on serving a meaningful peak capability at the lowest possible price. There's been news today that Google is building a Gemini chip with weights baked into sili…

>. In this case AI will be responsible for building better models, making people who own datacenters the winners. We need SETI@home for Open Weight models yesterday...

FWIW, I agree.

Re: Kimi K3, Qwen 3.8, and Anthropic's (Potential) Unravelling

#319

Post by simianwords »

daadx wrote: post #291
simianwords wrote: post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sunk cost fallacy is not relevant to future investment.

what an absolute plonker do you know how ROIC is calculated? Good luck hiding your huge sunk cost of bilions and billions in there bro. I wish people who had zero understanding of actual finance would never comment about it. Moreover if they declare their existing assets are bunk, the valuation is marked down, especially after now pricing in failure risk - this is catastrophic for VC's. Again, bro, just be quiet.

sanest comment here

Re: Kimi K3, Qwen 3.8, and Anthropic's (Potential) Unravelling

#320

Post by hedora »

bko wrote: post #5

I think the risk is overstated. For one, on the margin people are willing to pay a lot for slightly better models. I know personally the value the LLM adds to my workflow is considerably more than the $200/m I pay the frontier labs. I have no interest in optimizing that to get it slightly lower. There are a very vocal minority that optimizes this or companies whose LLM expense is marginal, but I think that's the mino…

I’m on the $200 claude plan, and keep getting booted down to opus or even sonnet by the broken guardrails.

Why should I pay for a frontier model that I can’t use?

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