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China’s open-weights AI strategy is winning

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Re: China’s open-weights AI strategy is winning

#751

Post by kcexn »

geophile wrote: post #352

The lesson of the last 50 years of the computer and software marketplace is that free and low-end eventually wins. - PCs destroyed minicomputers. Mainframes survive, but serving a much tinier portion of the market than they used to. - PC office productivity software destroyed expensive professional products. - Windows (low end) and Linux (free) completely destroyed the UNIX marketplace, and again, have taken huge mar…

How will open-source and open-weight models continue to thrive after financial incentives die off? Surely open models will suffer from outdated knowledge cutoffs if noone will pay for model training?

Re: China’s open-weights AI strategy is winning

#752

Post by DrewADesign »

engineer_22 wrote: post #744
DrewADesign wrote: post #718

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Personally, I don’t think the general-purpose LLM as a standalone tool is long for this world, at least not in consumer-facing applications. I think when the economics make more sense, product designers will make things that people actually want to use that will pretty transparently handle whatever model interactions are necessary, when it makes sense. As a consumer, the last things I want in an interface are to a) b…

> I don’t think the general-purpose LLM as a standalone tool is long for this world, at least not in consumer-facing applications. I use AI chat every day, I find it endlessly useful. It’s replaced google search.

I’m sure a lot of people here do. I wouldn’t exactly call this a representative sample.

Re: China’s open-weights AI strategy is winning

#755

Post by wtfHN26 »

ItsBob wrote: post #253
kirtivr wrote: post #214

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Deepseek has always been better than people gave it credit for. You have to be careful with the inference provider though, Chinese providers are subject to laws that mandate data sharing with their government.

Honestly, at this point I don't care about that. I don't use it for medical stuff or anything like that. However, my real worry is that governments will make these models illegal in the west. They'll cite national security or some other bullshit. I genuinely believe that will happen and soon! People talk about a lack of moat with AI companies... that's their moat: Government intervention!

> People talk about a lack of moat with AI companies... that's their moat: Government intervention!

This puts American Businesses and American Developers at a massive disadvantage.

The rest of the world can choose the best model by value for the task on hand.

Americans would be stuck using only 2-3 big frontier labs and paying a huge premium for using American models.

I don't see why hundreds of thousands of American Businesses will agree to that only for the benefit of a few tech companies.

Re: China’s open-weights AI strategy is winning

#756

Post by sumedh »

overgard wrote: post #445
bluegatty wrote: post #338

Earlier quoted context omitted.

'Libre Office' did not 'win'. People are happy to pay $50/year per seat to have the extra features and to not have to deal with stuff. There's an issue at the margins here: $1000/employee is a massive cost - it has to be deeply justified. $50/employee is like ... $2 out of your pocket. It's an incremental cost. The CFO is happy to pay it if there is a lot of value. A lot of software is in that later category. Imagine…

> 'Libre Office' did not 'win'. I think France and other parts of the EU are switching over to it. Although that's probably more due to Microsoft's aggressive behavior recently. Agree on the cost thing generally, but I can't help but think that when the hype to "do AI" blows over, people are going to be casting a jaundiced eye towards data security, which probably means self-hosting and sandboxing

> Although that's probably more due to Microsoft's aggressive behavior recently.

The current US govt might have played a role as well.

Re: China’s open-weights AI strategy is winning

#757

Post by The_Blade »

jaggederest wrote: post #628
mananaysiempre wrote: post #553

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I once tried to ask it for an example of a particular twisty situation in Latin grammar, and try what I might it kept hallucinating false citations while ignoring my instructions for longer quotes that would likely have prevented the problem. But I guess avoiding lawsuits from the estates of Cicero and Livy is more important.

Really puts Disney in perspective. Imagine if there were a holding company running around suing people for referencing Catullus.

ChatGPT refuses to acknowledge the existence of Shakespeare because Boccaccio's relatives complained, but all Boccaccio did was read Dante in whorehouses in Naples

Re: China’s open-weights AI strategy is winning

#758

Post by andix »

rootusrootus wrote: post #746
andix wrote: post #708

As an European I would laugh so hard, if China out-competes US based AI companies before the European car manufacturers. (it would be a very cynical laugh, no happiness, don't worry)

It would be grand if both the EU and the US could pop their heads out of their ass on this issue. Maybe we can get some people in charge that won't make us all embarrassed to be friends and we can focus on getting our house in order.

That would be the reasonable thing to do.

Re: China’s open-weights AI strategy is winning

#759

Post by msdz »

dmoy wrote: post #709
Grombobulous wrote: post #692

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Moore's law is over in the literal sense but silicon continues to advance relatively quickly. This claim isn't really outlandish in any way. It's not hard to imagine: - Future models being able to handle current frontier models' workflows with much higher efficiency. - Future consumer devices like phones having 2-4x the RAM onboard along with GPU/NPU performance greatly increased in 10-15 years.

Moore's law for 10-15 years was more like 20-100x ram sizes, not 2-4x. Performance, storage, etc is definitely getting better, but it's a different scale of improvement

10 to 15 years from now the scale of LLM efficiency improvements is, quite literally, unpredictable.

It could be that the company valuations crash tomorrow, and (almost) only performance gains achievable on hobbyist-level hardware come to fruition from there on out.

Or it could be that in the future, we have a custom "model FPGA" à la Taalas [0] in every home, and that it turns out we can still massively boost inference efficiency due to novel discoveries like TurboQuant [1] or a somehow-improved quantization method [2] again and again ten times over.

Point is, Moore's law in this context shouldn't be applied to just hardware spec sheets alone, but more the total number of "parameters potentially improving", IMO.

[0] https://chatjimmy.ai

[1] https://research.google/blog/turboquant-redefining-ai-effici...

[2] https://prismml.com/news/bonsai-27b

Re: China’s open-weights AI strategy is winning

#760

Post by The_Blade »

rvba wrote: post #716
zer00eyz wrote: post #557

Earlier quoted context omitted.

https://tornyol.com - A ycombinator company just killed its first bug: https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/drones/autonomous... Ukraine admits to making autonomous kills on people 2 years ago: https://www.newscientist.com/article/2529849-fully-autonomou... Slaughterbots Sci Fi short was 6 years ago: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O-2tpwW0kmU Today this is buildable, many models will happily help you glue ever…

If you talk about movies that tell about dangers of AI, you can start with Terminator 1 - from 1984. And you probably could find some earlier sci-fi too.

how about a nice game of chess?
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