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Kimi K3, Qwen 3.8, and Anthropic's (Potential) Unravelling

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Re: Kimi K3, Qwen 3.8, and Anthropic's (Potential) Unravelling

#231

Post by tracker1 »

sdfefcxv wrote: post #224
tracker1 wrote: post #220

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are you being paid by China? First you accuse me of simply speaking as a financial benefactor, then you totally shift the conversation into something that doesn't refute what I said. If you let a model spin too much, you get worse results... that's a fact, even for the best models. Nothing you've stated since actually refutes that and acting like a paid bot doesn't mean anything. I mean, if you want to felate Xi Jinp…

[flagged]

Never said any such thing... China is willing to abuse anyone and everyone including its own people to get ahead in global markets and to leverage any position of dominance possible. They have an absolute history of competition as a fascist economy. I have never, not once, denied such a reality.

You're just an idiot who assumes everyone that doesn't agree with you is the same. I'm surprised you're able to reply with Xi's penis in your mouth... even if it is kind of spacious in there for his limited size. How is the poo bear these days? Does he like it when you gargle his testicles in your mouth?

Re: Kimi K3, Qwen 3.8, and Anthropic's (Potential) Unravelling

#232

Post by boplicity »

JohnBooty wrote: post #137
LarsDu88 wrote: post #108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Honestly, whether you think burning current SOTA to hardware is an overinvestment risk depends on what your definition of intelligence is. If you think intelligence is something that can grow like height such that 18 months from now we will basically be bowing down to machine god giants that are running on B200s, then investing in ASICs is the wrong move. However, if you you subscribe to the (very reasonable view) th…

At a 50-100x speedup even a GPT-4o class model could perhaps compete with much newer models simply by thinking deeper, doing harness-controlled Ralph loops, etc. Sure, then it might be "only" ~2-5x faster, but, you wouldn't need to throw all the ASICs into the trash bin. One could also imagine hybrid models, where part of the model is burned into ASICs and part of the model exists in VRAM/HBM2 so it can be updated. I…

For many, many tasks, you only need good enough results that accomplish a clearly-defined set of criteria. Smaller models that run 50x faster, in this case, could be far superior to a much slower model that meets the same criteria.

Sometimes you need speed; sometimes you need quality. There are very different use cases for each. For my own workflows, I sometimes want something very simple done ASAP; other workflows need "subjective" reasoning and careful crafting of responses.

Re: Kimi K3, Qwen 3.8, and Anthropic's (Potential) Unravelling

#233

Post by alex43578 »

vitally3643 wrote: post #180
alex43578 wrote: post #147

Earlier quoted context omitted.

With OpenAI having released 20 and 120B models a while back, I think they recognized that tiny models were never going to be a defensible income stream. Any value will come from the largest models, and those largest models are unlikely to ever run on consumer hardware within their window of relevancy.

You're missing the point. You very rarely need the biggest and "best" model. This is psychology and nothing more, people always want the "best" and don't often consider "good enough". Small models are good enough depending on your task. That's the point. A model you can run on your phone or laptop is an incredibly useful tool for a lot of problems even though it isn't the "best" theoretically possible model.

You're missing the point: those small "good enough" models aren't monetizable and haven't been for months already. All of the value in LLMs is going to come from frontier models at a high cost to businesses/governments. It'll be the difference between next day air-mail of a contract and sticking a stamp on your christmas card to Grandma - nobody's making a profit on the christmas card.

Re: Kimi K3, Qwen 3.8, and Anthropic's (Potential) Unravelling

#234

Post by yogthos »

boc wrote: post #213
yogthos wrote: post #184

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And given that Chinese models are closing the gap there are basically two thing that could be happening. One is that they are moving faster than US companies developing closed models, and two that we're starting to hit a plateau for model capabilities where all the easy gains have been plucked, and now it's not really possible to move forward at the same rate on the frontier. Of course, both things could be happening…

Or option three is they are drafting hard off the frontier US models via distillation.

The process takes time because even when you're distilling answers, you still need to actually do reinforcement training on the model. And given that Fable and GPT 5.6 just came out there simply hasn't been much time to do that. On top of that, Kimi also does better than Fable or GPT on a lot of tasks, distillation alone can't explain that, meaning there is a difference in architecture. You can watch a talk from Kimi founder to see how Kimi was actually trained and why it performs well. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5CkCW1P-g88

Not to mention that US companies models constantly distill each other as Musk was forced to admit under oath. This whole narrative has just been a massive cope.

Re: Kimi K3, Qwen 3.8, and Anthropic's (Potential) Unravelling

#235

Post by yogthos »

sdfefcxv wrote: post #211
yogthos wrote: post #184

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And given that Chinese models are closing the gap there are basically two thing that could be happening. One is that they are moving faster than US companies developing closed models, and two that we're starting to hit a plateau for model capabilities where all the easy gains have been plucked, and now it's not really possible to move forward at the same rate on the frontier. Of course, both things could be happening…

This happened ages ago. But OAI and Anthropic are trying to cash in ahead of their IPO window. I think that window is pretty much gone now.

My prediction is that they're going to angle to become a vendor of record for the government and get bailed out. That's the only path at this point because there won't be any competition from China in this niche.

Re: Kimi K3, Qwen 3.8, and Anthropic's (Potential) Unravelling

#236

Post by paxys »

LarsDu88 wrote: post #48

The open weight, open architecture releases of the past several days has me more convinced that ultimately, the winner will be whoever burns their models to ASICs fastest. The LLMs themselves are capable of doing some aspects of chip design as evinced by the K3 press release. Furthermore, the frontier models are "good enough" for a wide swathe of tasks and will soon hit that threshold for a good amount of software en…

The field is moving too fast for it to make sense. ASICs have a 12-24 month development cycle and you’d have to throw them in the trash 4 months later.

Re: Kimi K3, Qwen 3.8, and Anthropic's (Potential) Unravelling

#237

Post by hungryhobbit »

svachalek wrote: post #162
bko wrote: post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Claude and OAI are not valued at $1T because of their harnesses They're valued at that because they add a lot of value and people pay for the product. The product is more than the LLM. If you want argue the value of the harness vs LLM but flippant remark adds nothing. > Enterprise excel is like $50 a month, the closed source labs charge orders of magnitude more than that per user per month for enterprise, and want…

I'd imagine it has to be immense. Most of the engineers I know are spending $200/day, let's say 20 workdays per month, $4000/mo. Whatever % of revenue it is, it's got to be close to 100% of profit.

Who is paying $200/day? My company has me on a $30/month plan (I assume they pay annually?). I use Claude constantly and only hit usage limits when I try to do 4+ projects at once.

I can't imagine why anyone would need almost 7x that.

Re: Kimi K3, Qwen 3.8, and Anthropic's (Potential) Unravelling

#238

Post by jesse_dot_id »

port3000 wrote: post #50

It's amazing how quickly Fable went from 'Game-changing model that needs to be banned' to 'Yeah it's alright, but OpenAI is also just as good and there are a couple of good open weight alternatives that are equivalent for almost everything' The hype cycles are shortening, perhaps we really are reaching some kind of plateau this time (famous last words)

The plateau is inevitable because their rapacious training methodologies are only viable when there are no defense in place, but information continues to evolve, which means the models will have to be continuously updated, but will be doing so with less and less freely available data.

Re: Kimi K3, Qwen 3.8, and Anthropic's (Potential) Unravelling

#239

Post by Paradigma11 »

vitally3643 wrote: post #180
alex43578 wrote: post #147

Earlier quoted context omitted.

With OpenAI having released 20 and 120B models a while back, I think they recognized that tiny models were never going to be a defensible income stream. Any value will come from the largest models, and those largest models are unlikely to ever run on consumer hardware within their window of relevancy.

You're missing the point. You very rarely need the biggest and "best" model. This is psychology and nothing more, people always want the "best" and don't often consider "good enough". Small models are good enough depending on your task. That's the point. A model you can run on your phone or laptop is an incredibly useful tool for a lot of problems even though it isn't the "best" theoretically possible model.

How often do you need the task to turn out harder than you anticipate and the small model unexpectedly failing to change the calculation?

Re: Kimi K3, Qwen 3.8, and Anthropic's (Potential) Unravelling

#240

Post by tracker1 »

sdfefcxv wrote: post #210
anthonypasq wrote: post #189

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Kimi K3 is still worse than Fable and Fable was trained >4 months ago.

To say X is perfectly bad vs Y is false. People use these models for diff things. Its quite possible for the things they are used for, people do not see much of a difference. Do you hold stock in Anthropic?

Are you a Chinese national, or otherwise paid by China?
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