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Kimi K3, Qwen 3.8, and Anthropic's (Potential) Unravelling

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Re: Kimi K3, Qwen 3.8, and Anthropic's (Potential) Unravelling

#211

Post by sdfefcxv »

yogthos wrote: post #184
rockinghigh wrote: post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Open-weight models were lagging 4 months behind OpenAI/Anthropic at the beginning of the year. They are now just 4-6 weeks behind.

And given that Chinese models are closing the gap there are basically two thing that could be happening. One is that they are moving faster than US companies developing closed models, and two that we're starting to hit a plateau for model capabilities where all the easy gains have been plucked, and now it's not really possible to move forward at the same rate on the frontier. Of course, both things could be happening…

This happened ages ago.

But OAI and Anthropic are trying to cash in ahead of their IPO window. I think that window is pretty much gone now.

Re: Kimi K3, Qwen 3.8, and Anthropic's (Potential) Unravelling

#212

Post by sdfefcxv »

drob518 wrote: post #167
treis wrote: post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

ChatGPT is synonymous with non technical/work related LLMs. They're amassing a ton of user history. That history improves the product for the user because it has more context into the person. They can feed it back into model improvements and for advertising. You can see a future where a user types in "plan a vacation for me" and ChatGPT coordinates everything from there. Those sorts of users aren't going to switch be…

I see a future where lots of models can plan a vacation for me, not just ChatGPT. Saying that there is brand equity in the ChatGPT brand feels a lot like saying there’s a brand equity in the MySpace and AOL 25 years ago. Google in particular, via Android and its relationship with Apple to power Siri, has a much better shot at grabbing the “plan a vacation for me” consumer market, IMO. I could easily see OpenAI become…

[flagged]

Re: Kimi K3, Qwen 3.8, and Anthropic's (Potential) Unravelling

#213

Post by boc »

yogthos wrote: post #184
rockinghigh wrote: post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Open-weight models were lagging 4 months behind OpenAI/Anthropic at the beginning of the year. They are now just 4-6 weeks behind.

And given that Chinese models are closing the gap there are basically two thing that could be happening. One is that they are moving faster than US companies developing closed models, and two that we're starting to hit a plateau for model capabilities where all the easy gains have been plucked, and now it's not really possible to move forward at the same rate on the frontier. Of course, both things could be happening…

Or option three is they are drafting hard off the frontier US models via distillation.

Re: Kimi K3, Qwen 3.8, and Anthropic's (Potential) Unravelling

#215

Post by himata4113 »

torginus wrote: post #42
in_a_society wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Baking weights in makes a lot of sense for inference speed and power efficiency and has the added benefit of putting many end-users on the hardware refresh treadmill.

Yes, but how much would be a static Sonnet 3.5 be worth today? Its just about 2 years old. I'm not even going to ask about 3yo models like GPT4.

Okay, but the models today will be useful for a lot longer than sonnet 3.5. They're already more than capable to do nearly anything you throw at them given enough time and human assistance. The next step up is faster, cheaper and better user experience. I have only had two instances where I needed to reach for 5.6 sol and that only totalled around $2.7 in api costs.

I would imagine it would look something like this:

Ground breaking/novel research -> SWE -> day to day assistant conversations -> chat support bot...

Re: Kimi K3, Qwen 3.8, and Anthropic's (Potential) Unravelling

#216

Post by sdfefcxv »

vitally3643 wrote: post #180
alex43578 wrote: post #147

Earlier quoted context omitted.

With OpenAI having released 20 and 120B models a while back, I think they recognized that tiny models were never going to be a defensible income stream. Any value will come from the largest models, and those largest models are unlikely to ever run on consumer hardware within their window of relevancy.

You're missing the point. You very rarely need the biggest and "best" model. This is psychology and nothing more, people always want the "best" and don't often consider "good enough". Small models are good enough depending on your task. That's the point. A model you can run on your phone or laptop is an incredibly useful tool for a lot of problems even though it isn't the "best" theoretically possible model.

Yep.

And firms will be kept in check with financials.

If your competitor starts using chinese models and delivers better earnings whilst you are spending more on american ones... hahaaha. Wait and see what happens.

You will be FIRED!

Re: Kimi K3, Qwen 3.8, and Anthropic's (Potential) Unravelling

#217

Post by xtracto »

doctoboggan wrote: post #91
LarsDu88 wrote: post #48

The open weight, open architecture releases of the past several days has me more convinced that ultimately, the winner will be whoever burns their models to ASICs fastest. The LLMs themselves are capable of doing some aspects of chip design as evinced by the K3 press release. Furthermore, the frontier models are "good enough" for a wide swathe of tasks and will soon hit that threshold for a good amount of software en…

I think the SotA is moving too fast for the production timelines of an ASIC, wouldn't you think? People are just now coming out with LLAMA ASICS but who would want to use LLAMA? Or I guess you are arguing that the models _now_ will be durably useful enough to commit the time to creating the ASIC?

I dream of some kind of "adjustable" ASIC layers, that have the most "computation demanding" layers as ASICs plus a bunch of configurable R+W circuits (FPGAs?) that can be written to upgrade the models to some extent.

What's fascinating is that we are pushing the state of the art of hardware at this point.

Re: Kimi K3, Qwen 3.8, and Anthropic's (Potential) Unravelling

#218

Post by xtracto »

torginus wrote: post #32

Upper bound of AI progress - recursive self improvement. In this case AI will be responsible for building better models, making people who own datacenters the winners. Anthropic/OAI is cooked. Lower bound of AI progress - plateau. Progess is slowing, focus is on serving a meaningful peak capability at the lowest possible price. There's been news today that Google is building a Gemini chip with weights baked into sili…

>. In this case AI will be responsible for building better models, making people who own datacenters the winners.

We need SETI@home for Open Weight models yesterday...

Re: Kimi K3, Qwen 3.8, and Anthropic's (Potential) Unravelling

#219

Post by sdfefcxv »

JacobAsmuth wrote: post #168
hughw wrote: post #134

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A Fable 5 model running at 9,000 tokens/s on an ASIC rather than 150 tokens/s on electricity chugging Nvidia GPUs, or even giant SRAM Cerebras or Groq chips could be good enough to meet the majority of demand. 640K ought to be enough for anybody.

Agreed 100%. This guy thinks there's a limit on the demand for intelligence. You think that Fable 7 which can run a billion dollar corporation on its own has no consumer demand just because we have fable 5 at 9k tok/s? Who do you think will be the biggest customer of such a model? Fable 7, obviously.

theoretically theres a no limit on the demand of anything if the price is right

pretty stupid statement lmao

Re: Kimi K3, Qwen 3.8, and Anthropic's (Potential) Unravelling

#220

Post by tracker1 »

sdfefcxv wrote: post #214
tracker1 wrote: post #206

Earlier quoted context omitted.

LOL.. neither... but good luck on your standup career with jokes by literal monkeys.

[flagged]

Are you being paid by China? First you accuse me of simply speaking as a financial benefactor, then you totally shift the conversation into something that doesn't refute what I said.

If you let a model spin too much, you get worse results... that's a fact, even for the best models. Nothing you've stated since actually refutes that and acting like a paid bot doesn't mean anything.

I mean, if you want to felate Xi Jinping, have at it... that's all on you bro. I don't have a horse in this race.

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