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Kimi K3, Qwen 3.8, and Anthropic's (Potential) Unravelling

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Re: Kimi K3, Qwen 3.8, and Anthropic's (Potential) Unravelling

#201

Post by tracker1 »

margalabargala wrote: post #140
stillpointlab wrote: post #126

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I mean, if I imagine Anthropic giving away unlimited Sonnet 4.5 away at $20, I would still be paying the $200 for fable. It is a bit like saying "why would you hire someone with a doctorate when you could get unlimited high school grads". How appealing that sounds depends on your needs.

Right, and while there are needs that require a doctorate, having unlimited high school grads would be immensely useful for many many tasks. The ability levels of the cheap models are encroaching on the abilities of the frontier models faster than frontier models are expanding their abilities. If we haven't already, we will very soon reach a "good enough" state where having the "best" model matters less and less and…

How much compute does the cheap model require to operate? Power + hardware amortized over a couple years.

Re: Kimi K3, Qwen 3.8, and Anthropic's (Potential) Unravelling

#202

Post by sdfefcxv »

tracker1 wrote: post #199
JohnBooty wrote: post #137

Earlier quoted context omitted.

At a 50-100x speedup even a GPT-4o class model could perhaps compete with much newer models simply by thinking deeper, doing harness-controlled Ralph loops, etc. Sure, then it might be "only" ~2-5x faster, but, you wouldn't need to throw all the ASICs into the trash bin. One could also imagine hybrid models, where part of the model is burned into ASICs and part of the model exists in VRAM/HBM2 so it can be updated. I…

Giving a literal monkey the ability to press more keys faster doesn't get a good joke from it. A model will often come up with worse results given more cycles of compute, only because it will tailspin from second guesses, rethinking and literal flip-flopping on concepts. --- edit: to those following the thread below... if you look at the comments from the account replying, it's pretty obviously a pro-China account an…

Said the OAI/Anthropic stockholder

Re: Kimi K3, Qwen 3.8, and Anthropic's (Potential) Unravelling

#203

Post by [deleted] »

LarsDu88 wrote: post #48

The open weight, open architecture releases of the past several days has me more convinced that ultimately, the winner will be whoever burns their models to ASICs fastest. The LLMs themselves are capable of doing some aspects of chip design as evinced by the K3 press release. Furthermore, the frontier models are "good enough" for a wide swathe of tasks and will soon hit that threshold for a good amount of software en…

[deleted]

Re: Kimi K3, Qwen 3.8, and Anthropic's (Potential) Unravelling

#204

Post by sdfefcxv »

florakel wrote: post #75
overgard wrote: post #14

I keep thinking about the Figma thing. If you're unaware, here's the google summary: ---- The Board Departure: Mike Krieger, Anthropic’s CPO and a co-founder of Instagram, sat on Figma’s board of directors. He resigned on April 14, just days before news of Claude Design broke. This sparked speculation over conflict of interest and the use of proprietary product strategy information. Betrayal of Partnership: The launc…

I believe the coding tool revenue is an important factor right now but not the endgame. The AI companies have to become consumer products to justify their gigantic valuations. We always talked about the “super apps” - one app that fulfills most consumer needs, like WeChat in China. OpenAI is the company most visibly making a huge bet on becoming a “consumer super device”, even designing their own hardware to stop bei…

Delusion

Re: Kimi K3, Qwen 3.8, and Anthropic's (Potential) Unravelling

#205

Post by mattdeboard »

overgard wrote: post #14

I keep thinking about the Figma thing. If you're unaware, here's the google summary: ---- The Board Departure: Mike Krieger, Anthropic’s CPO and a co-founder of Instagram, sat on Figma’s board of directors. He resigned on April 14, just days before news of Claude Design broke. This sparked speculation over conflict of interest and the use of proprietary product strategy information. Betrayal of Partnership: The launc…

Your last two sentences remind me of the olden days of people building applications on top of FB and Twitter APIs (and later, Reddit), only to to have the rug pulled out from under them in one way or another

Re: Kimi K3, Qwen 3.8, and Anthropic's (Potential) Unravelling

#206

Post by tracker1 »

sdfefcxv wrote: post #202
tracker1 wrote: post #199

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Giving a literal monkey the ability to press more keys faster doesn't get a good joke from it. A model will often come up with worse results given more cycles of compute, only because it will tailspin from second guesses, rethinking and literal flip-flopping on concepts. --- edit: to those following the thread below... if you look at the comments from the account replying, it's pretty obviously a pro-China account an…

Said the OAI/Anthropic stockholder

LOL.. neither... but good luck on your standup career with jokes by literal monkeys.

Re: Kimi K3, Qwen 3.8, and Anthropic's (Potential) Unravelling

#207

Post by seydor »

LarsDu88 wrote: post #48

The open weight, open architecture releases of the past several days has me more convinced that ultimately, the winner will be whoever burns their models to ASICs fastest. The LLMs themselves are capable of doing some aspects of chip design as evinced by the K3 press release. Furthermore, the frontier models are "good enough" for a wide swathe of tasks and will soon hit that threshold for a good amount of software en…

They require a lot of computation regardless of whether this will take place on ASICs. China can do it, even if the chips are not the most power-efficient. They have built lots of electricity capacity.

Ultimately however, that just means that models will become dirt-cheap. The money will be made with applications built on top of the models.

Re: Kimi K3, Qwen 3.8, and Anthropic's (Potential) Unravelling

#208

Post by spamizbad »

overgard wrote: post #14

I keep thinking about the Figma thing. If you're unaware, here's the google summary: ---- The Board Departure: Mike Krieger, Anthropic’s CPO and a co-founder of Instagram, sat on Figma’s board of directors. He resigned on April 14, just days before news of Claude Design broke. This sparked speculation over conflict of interest and the use of proprietary product strategy information. Betrayal of Partnership: The launc…

Disagree: The era of " will eat your startup by throwing capital/devs at it" are over. Anthropic, OpenAI et al are under too much competitive pressure to chase every quixotic product idea.

Re: Kimi K3, Qwen 3.8, and Anthropic's (Potential) Unravelling

#209

Post by chermi »

LarsDu88 wrote: post #48

The open weight, open architecture releases of the past several days has me more convinced that ultimately, the winner will be whoever burns their models to ASICs fastest. The LLMs themselves are capable of doing some aspects of chip design as evinced by the K3 press release. Furthermore, the frontier models are "good enough" for a wide swathe of tasks and will soon hit that threshold for a good amount of software en…

My gut is that, at least for now, there's a timescale mis-match problem. Hardware still takes too long, then you have to deploy it. I don't know much about "burning asics", but if the whole process of spinning up programmable GPU data centers is months, I imagine the whole ASIC cycle has some catching up to do. To be clear, by timescale mismatch I mean model quality improvement timescale vs. deployment timescale. But maybe we're finally getting to the point where behind-the-frontier-but-cheaper are in sufficient demand and ASICs make it cheap enough to close that gap.

Re: Kimi K3, Qwen 3.8, and Anthropic's (Potential) Unravelling

#210

Post by sdfefcxv »

anthonypasq wrote: post #189
rockinghigh wrote: post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Open-weight models were lagging 4 months behind OpenAI/Anthropic at the beginning of the year. They are now just 4-6 weeks behind.

Kimi K3 is still worse than Fable and Fable was trained >4 months ago.

To say X is perfectly bad vs Y is false.

People use these models for diff things.

Its quite possible for the things they are used for, people do not see much of a difference.

Do you hold stock in Anthropic?

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