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Kimi K3, Qwen 3.8, and Anthropic's (Potential) Unravelling

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Re: Kimi K3, Qwen 3.8, and Anthropic's (Potential) Unravelling

#181

Post by treis »

drob518 wrote: post #167
treis wrote: post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

ChatGPT is synonymous with non technical/work related LLMs. They're amassing a ton of user history. That history improves the product for the user because it has more context into the person. They can feed it back into model improvements and for advertising. You can see a future where a user types in "plan a vacation for me" and ChatGPT coordinates everything from there. Those sorts of users aren't going to switch be…

I see a future where lots of models can plan a vacation for me, not just ChatGPT. Saying that there is brand equity in the ChatGPT brand feels a lot like saying there’s a brand equity in the MySpace and AOL 25 years ago. Google in particular, via Android and its relationship with Apple to power Siri, has a much better shot at grabbing the “plan a vacation for me” consumer market, IMO. I could easily see OpenAI become…

They won't have the years of chat history to customize the vacation.

Re: Kimi K3, Qwen 3.8, and Anthropic's (Potential) Unravelling

#182

Post by dgellow »

yalogin wrote: post #132

The bigger question for me is , at what point does investing in higher capability general models will stop showing the ROI? For example - What percentage of workflows require this new highly capable model? How much of it can be replaced with the software tooling around it? What I mean is if the software tooling can optimize the query over a few iterations does it get the same output as from a single shot high capabil…

What ROI? Nobody is currently making money outside of the hardware manufacturers and hyperscalers

Re: Kimi K3, Qwen 3.8, and Anthropic's (Potential) Unravelling

#183

Post by vel0city »

stillpointlab wrote: post #126
alex43578 wrote: post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the gamble comes down to how many tokens need to be served on your best model, versus how many can be served in the cheapest/fastest way. Imagine if Anthropic could give effectively unlimited access to Sonnet, for $20. Wouldn’t that be an appealing option for many users? I know I’d make a lot of use of it for agentic tasks, office work, summarization, etc; when right now I’d save quota for more important task…

I mean, if I imagine Anthropic giving away unlimited Sonnet 4.5 away at $20, I would still be paying the $200 for fable. It is a bit like saying "why would you hire someone with a doctorate when you could get unlimited high school grads". How appealing that sounds depends on your needs.

What percentage of white collar work these days requires doctorate level thinking all the time?

Re: Kimi K3, Qwen 3.8, and Anthropic's (Potential) Unravelling

#184

Post by yogthos »

rockinghigh wrote: post #88
port3000 wrote: post #50

It's amazing how quickly Fable went from 'Game-changing model that needs to be banned' to 'Yeah it's alright, but OpenAI is also just as good and there are a couple of good open weight alternatives that are equivalent for almost everything' The hype cycles are shortening, perhaps we really are reaching some kind of plateau this time (famous last words)

Open-weight models were lagging 4 months behind OpenAI/Anthropic at the beginning of the year. They are now just 4-6 weeks behind.

And given that Chinese models are closing the gap there are basically two thing that could be happening. One is that they are moving faster than US companies developing closed models, and two that we're starting to hit a plateau for model capabilities where all the easy gains have been plucked, and now it's not really possible to move forward at the same rate on the frontier. Of course, both things could be happening at the same time.

Re: Kimi K3, Qwen 3.8, and Anthropic's (Potential) Unravelling

#185

Post by drob518 »

overgard wrote: post #121
sowbug wrote: post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is a popular misreading of the state of the law. Someone tried, as a bit of a stunt, to register a work for copyright with generative AI as the sole creator/author. That registration was rejected. This is quite different from a person using generative AI as a tool to create a work. People have copyright in photos and videos they create, even if they used a camera. Same with images and code, even if they used an…

This isn't quite true: https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/LSB10922 The clearest part from the page: > Before the proliferation of generative AI, U.S. courts did not extend copyright protection to various nonhuman authors, holding that a monkey who took photos of himself lacked standing to sue under the Copyright Act; that human authorship was required to copyright a book purportedly inspired by celestial beings; an…

Right, but the AI isn’t the one who would actually claim copyright here. It would be the human using AI to accelerate the coding. And the human does have standing.

Re: Kimi K3, Qwen 3.8, and Anthropic's (Potential) Unravelling

#186

Post by drob518 »

onlyrealcuzzo wrote: post #179
overgard wrote: post #121

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This isn't quite true: https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/LSB10922 The clearest part from the page: > Before the proliferation of generative AI, U.S. courts did not extend copyright protection to various nonhuman authors, holding that a monkey who took photos of himself lacked standing to sue under the Copyright Act; that human authorship was required to copyright a book purportedly inspired by celestial beings; an…

So if I write one line of code in a 1M line LLM codebase, is it mine?

It’s owned by whoever directed the AI to write it.

Re: Kimi K3, Qwen 3.8, and Anthropic's (Potential) Unravelling

#187

Post by drob518 »

treis wrote: post #181
drob518 wrote: post #167

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I see a future where lots of models can plan a vacation for me, not just ChatGPT. Saying that there is brand equity in the ChatGPT brand feels a lot like saying there’s a brand equity in the MySpace and AOL 25 years ago. Google in particular, via Android and its relationship with Apple to power Siri, has a much better shot at grabbing the “plan a vacation for me” consumer market, IMO. I could easily see OpenAI become…

They won't have the years of chat history to customize the vacation.

[flagged]

Re: Kimi K3, Qwen 3.8, and Anthropic's (Potential) Unravelling

#188

Post by margalabargala »

stillpointlab wrote: post #178
margalabargala wrote: post #175

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The reason you are getting "but there is a market for cheap models" as a response, is people saying in a roundabout way "but soon models may not need to be updated". Models like Kimi 3, GLM 5.2, or even Fable 5 for that matter are reasonable to burn to.ASIC because they are over the threshold of "good enough to be generally useful", something that will continue to be true in the future. Most people do not need the la…

> but soon models may not need to be updated Which is why my original post mentioned the volatility in models. We aren't just doing research on frontier, there is a huge amount of research on quantization, distillation, etc. that is changing the landscape at the low-end almost as much as it is changing on the frontier. And it is also why I mention revealed preference. What feels sufficient / "good enough" today is a…

That moving target is different for everyone and their use case, and for me, it's already passed. I remember using Opus 4.5 and thinking "this is good enough to do everything I want it to do properly" and I stand by that. Paying $10k for unlimited Opus 4.5 running at 9k tok/s would IMO allow me to do more, faster, than putting the same money into $200/mo anthropic subscriptions for the latest and greatest.

This is me personally. The calculus is different for other people. But I suspect Kimi 3 is pretty darn close to that tipping point for an awful lot of people.

Re: Kimi K3, Qwen 3.8, and Anthropic's (Potential) Unravelling

#189

Post by anthonypasq »

rockinghigh wrote: post #88
port3000 wrote: post #50

It's amazing how quickly Fable went from 'Game-changing model that needs to be banned' to 'Yeah it's alright, but OpenAI is also just as good and there are a couple of good open weight alternatives that are equivalent for almost everything' The hype cycles are shortening, perhaps we really are reaching some kind of plateau this time (famous last words)

Open-weight models were lagging 4 months behind OpenAI/Anthropic at the beginning of the year. They are now just 4-6 weeks behind.

Kimi K3 is still worse than Fable and Fable was trained >4 months ago.

Re: Kimi K3, Qwen 3.8, and Anthropic's (Potential) Unravelling

#190

Post by svachalek »

Alpha3031 wrote: post #57
joey64 wrote: post #29

So, what's the most affordable way for a pleb who doesn't own 17 H100s to use Kimi K3 or Qwen 3.8?

Well, if you're happy with around (as in within an order of magnitude or two of) 0.1 tokens per second... I believe that's around what people are getting when loading MoE weights from NVMe.

You've got to consider how much power that uses though. Depending where you live, some of these providers can serve it for less than you pay for power.
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