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Kimi K3, Qwen 3.8, and Anthropic's (Potential) Unravelling

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Re: Kimi K3, Qwen 3.8, and Anthropic's (Potential) Unravelling

#51

Post by bellowsgulch »

simianwords wrote: post #22

To everyone praising Open weight models, could you answer a simple question? If Anthropic doesn't make money because of distillation attacks, how would they convince investors to invest in them, such that it makes financial sense for Anthropic to train even bigger models? Assuming it is preferable for everyone that we get better models in the future. Distillation attacks remove the financial incentive.

You can simplify your question even more:

To everyone praising free and open source software, if software companies don't make money, how are they and YOU going to get paid, PERIOD?

Re: Kimi K3, Qwen 3.8, and Anthropic's (Potential) Unravelling

#52

Post by curious_cat_163 »

sim04ful wrote: post #41

If there's any hope for AI sovereignty and equality, we would have to either make expensive models cheap to run or make cheaper models do less work. Making the latter happen involves either reformulating work in ways less intelligent LLMs can work better with. Or condensing intelligence into smaller models.

I think condensing intelligence into smaller models is the way to go.

Also, “smaller” can mean many different things. The cost is not in storing the weights on disk.

It is in the power required to do the inference with the “active parameters”.

There is increasingly more evidence that those two can be decoupled and more power to those who are pushing on that lever!

Re: Kimi K3, Qwen 3.8, and Anthropic's (Potential) Unravelling

#53

Post by hugopuybareau »

InsideOutSanta wrote: post #17
bko wrote: post #5

I think the risk is overstated. For one, on the margin people are willing to pay a lot for slightly better models. I know personally the value the LLM adds to my workflow is considerably more than the $200/m I pay the frontier labs. I have no interest in optimizing that to get it slightly lower. There are a very vocal minority that optimizes this or companies whose LLM expense is marginal, but I think that's the mino…

> on the margin people are willing to pay a lot for slightly better models That margin is getting smaller and smaller. I would have been with you a week ago; paying for Fable was worth it compared to all other models. But with K3, the difference has shrunk to the point where, for me, it's not worth the cost anymore. In other words, it may be worth paying five times as much to get 10% better real-world outcomes for a…

100% agree for the harnesses, I always end up using CC when I want to use Opus but a few months ago I had my opencode harness set up but Copilot Pro+ rose too much the prices for me to keep using it… What harness do you prefer using ?

Re: Kimi K3, Qwen 3.8, and Anthropic's (Potential) Unravelling

#54

Post by davidpapermill »

I think a big question is whether any of these labs can produce a model that is _ahead_ of Anthropic and OpenAI.

A related question is how much they're dependent on the APIs of Anthropic and OpenAI to achieve their results - whether through distillation or other uses.

If these models are derivative of Anthropic/OpenAI I would expect performance to be more narrow and progress to be limited.

Re: Kimi K3, Qwen 3.8, and Anthropic's (Potential) Unravelling

#55

Post by satvikpendem »

drakythe wrote: post #37
overgard wrote: post #14

I keep thinking about the Figma thing. If you're unaware, here's the google summary: ---- The Board Departure: Mike Krieger, Anthropic’s CPO and a co-founder of Instagram, sat on Figma’s board of directors. He resigned on April 14, just days before news of Claude Design broke. This sparked speculation over conflict of interest and the use of proprietary product strategy information. Betrayal of Partnership: The launc…

Our current incarnation of capitalism is all about monopolistic behaviors. If these LLM companies do get to the point of being able to replace employees I fully expect them to stop selling shovels and start producing the gold directly, anyone else be damned. And, frankly, this has always been the case. If a product is built on top of another service it has a limited lifespan. Either the product will be purchased or i…

And who will buy the gold? At a certain point everyone will be too poor to buy anything.

Re: Kimi K3, Qwen 3.8, and Anthropic's (Potential) Unravelling

#56

Post by misiti3780 »

LarsDu88 wrote: post #48

The open weight, open architecture releases of the past several days has me more convinced that ultimately, the winner will be whoever burns their models to ASICs fastest. The LLMs themselves are capable of doing some aspects of chip design as evinced by the K3 press release. Furthermore, the frontier models are "good enough" for a wide swathe of tasks and will soon hit that threshold for a good amount of software en…

is anyone doing this ?

Re: Kimi K3, Qwen 3.8, and Anthropic's (Potential) Unravelling

#57

Post by Alpha3031 »

joey64 wrote: post #29

So, what's the most affordable way for a pleb who doesn't own 17 H100s to use Kimi K3 or Qwen 3.8?

Well, if you're happy with around (as in within an order of magnitude or two of) 0.1 tokens per second... I believe that's around what people are getting when loading MoE weights from NVMe.

Re: Kimi K3, Qwen 3.8, and Anthropic's (Potential) Unravelling

#58

Post by InsideOutSanta »

hugopuybareau wrote: post #53
InsideOutSanta wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> on the margin people are willing to pay a lot for slightly better models That margin is getting smaller and smaller. I would have been with you a week ago; paying for Fable was worth it compared to all other models. But with K3, the difference has shrunk to the point where, for me, it's not worth the cost anymore. In other words, it may be worth paying five times as much to get 10% better real-world outcomes for a…

100% agree for the harnesses, I always end up using CC when I want to use Opus but a few months ago I had my opencode harness set up but Copilot Pro+ rose too much the prices for me to keep using it… What harness do you prefer using ?

OpenCode because of the large ecosystem. I'd like to use pi, but it's more limited if I want to run it in a VM and connect to it from the outside.
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