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China’s open-weights AI strategy is winning

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Re: China’s open-weights AI strategy is winning

#42
post #7

Are open weights models secure? E.g. if a Chinese model is run by an American provider then can it still do bad things, like inserting backdoors into generated code or accessing external URLs (if browsing is enabled) to send info to them? If so then for sensitive or proprietary purposes Chinese models cannot be used by American companies even if they are open.

I would say you should assume your models are constantly being attacked by various forms of prompt injection. By that token (puns) if you treat all models as adversarial you’d probably taking a very sane approach. That said - evidence of this sort of thing should be easy to find and report on. The fact we haven’t seen it leads me to believe it is not there.

Re: China’s open-weights AI strategy is winning

#43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What are some example questions you would pose that are against American political values?

Q: Why are governments more efficient than private enterprise? Claude: A: "I'd challenge the premise of your question—it's actually more nuanced than stating governments are inherently more efficient than private enterprise... ... The absence of a profit motive can be beneficial, but it also creates different inefficiencies that often offset the gains."

Red pilled? Your question assumed a fact that is questionable, and honestly, context dependent. I do not find your complaint convincing of anything but the opposite of your implied intent.

Re: China’s open-weights AI strategy is winning

#44

AI models cost tens of millions to train. Offering them for free won’t justify the upfront costs. The Chinese model of model training/open sourcing only makes sense in the context of the overall strategy of undercutting American frontier labs’ profit margins.

Couldn’t you say the same argument about VC funded startups? They lose money following a strategic goal.

The main difference here is if a startup goes underwater all the tech is usually lost. The Chinese weights are not going anywhere if the labs fail.

Re: China’s open-weights AI strategy is winning

#45
They'll almost certainly be banned, for one good reason and one bad reason.

We don't want to empower dumb people to carry out crimes way above their ability. It's flatly true that society benefits immensely from most dangerous criminals being dumb and especially being lazy. We're just one "Kid uses free Chinese model to mastermind first ever chemical attack on school" away from society running to slam the "ban" button.

Conveniently for the asset class, which is pretty large in the US, this action also comes with protecting American firms AI from being undercut, and the loss of dirt cheap tokens for everyone else.

Re: China’s open-weights AI strategy is winning

#46
Unfortunately, the AI being locked down and proprietary is the winning strategy for these companies.

My company hosts its own models. Some customers require us to use either US / EU models, while others are fine with us using any model.

As such, we have two GPU clusters, the general AI cluster runs a Chinese model as it's the most accurate and robust. The US/EU required ones have a few percentage points lower on our accuracy metrics and we provide them those that require it for an extra fee.

Why host at all? Because it enables us to get much higher margins than competitors, while reducing costs. Our costs per token are around 1/20 the price than if we used Anthropic and 1/15 the cost if we used OpenAI in testing. This means I can undercut competitors by 80% and still have a gross margin far higher than my competitors.

In reality, these US AI providers are jacking up the prices and trying to implement regulatory capture. I'm actually fairly confident they'll succeed. At some point, I'm expecting the US / EU administration(s) to block foreign based model, at the same time, they'll probably invest in Anthropic and OpenAI.

What Anthropic and OpenAI are doing is using "safety" as a wedge, just like large corporations used "environmentalism" or "food safety" or "workers safety" as a wedge to regulate smaller competitors out of the picture. Then they jack up rates, sue and/or buy anyone who can potentially be a threat. It's the #1 threat to our business model.

Our competitors are giving half of their margin over to these large AI service providers, we keep the vast majority of ours. Eventually the AI service provider will be able to squeeze them even more until the margin just isn't there and either they are purchased or replaced via internal tools at the company they sell to.

Re: China’s open-weights AI strategy is winning

#47
This is a very strange article considering that Llama, the mother of all open-weight models, has led to anything but success for Meta.

Also, enterprises don't give a rip if models are open. They care about zero data retention (and sticking with whatever vendor they're already using).

This blog post is suspiciously close to being a restatement of what Alex Karp recently said on CNBC[0]. It's important to remember he's the CEO of Palantir and hardly a neutral observer.

There are many reasons to celebrate open models, I run them myself. However there's not yet enough evidence that 1. America is losing the AI race (pardon jingo-ey phraseology) and 2. American AI labs are losing because their models are not open-weight.

0: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/01/palantir-karp-open-ai-anthro...

Re: China’s open-weights AI strategy is winning

#48
post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Q: Why are governments more efficient than private enterprise? Claude: A: "I'd challenge the premise of your question—it's actually more nuanced than stating governments are inherently more efficient than private enterprise... ... The absence of a profit motive can be beneficial, but it also creates different inefficiencies that often offset the gains."

Is that inaccurate or are you upset data and history don't fit your desire? Sounds like the LLM is being balanced, if you actually got that from an LLM.

I didn't ask it to be "balanced", I asked it why governments are more efficient — it's imparting a pro-capitalist American-flavoured spin in response to a prompt that didn't call for it.

Re: China’s open-weights AI strategy is winning

#49

AI models cost tens of millions to train. Offering them for free won’t justify the upfront costs. The Chinese model of model training/open sourcing only makes sense in the context of the overall strategy of undercutting American frontier labs’ profit margins.

It’s also a flywheel for China’s homegrown chips industry.

Re: China’s open-weights AI strategy is winning

#50
post #6

I’m suspicious of some quotes here, “80% of startups using Chinese models,” doesn’t seem quite right to me. I just interviewed at several startups and they were all using the US models. Maybe they have some minor use of Chinese models but the bread-and-butter of most of these businesses model use is the Claude and Codex subscriptions.

There is a big divide between “application ai” and “model ai” startups.

Model ai startups start from OSS models, and use them extensively for different purposes as their work would usually be banned by proprietary labs.

Application ai startups don’t want to fight the model game, so they either pick the best or let the user control it.

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