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Britain: A Cautionary Tale for America

noahpinion.blog

21–30 of 42 posts

Re: Britain: A Cautionary Tale for America

#21
post #11

Note on the economics here; why don't we look at the whole picture rather than one or two countries? Clearly America should be top of this list, right? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_%28no... .. no, that's Monaco. OK, so clearly we should exclude "microstates which are tax havens for billionaires" from the list. Does raise question about whether "excessive financialization of the economy" is a…

> Israel (!)

What did you mean by that (!)?

Re: Britain: A Cautionary Tale for America

#22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Even the popular claim that "natural has is extremely expensive due to the Ukraine war" is misleading. In the UK and Europe high prices are by and large the result of policy and in fact high prices is exactly the aim.

I'm not sure that is true. The reason prices are high in the UK is that the government guarantees specific strike prices to investors to bring investment into new renewable infrastructure. So if someone builds a new offshore windfarm, they are guaranteed a certain return. The underlying strike price is calculated from the cost of natural gas, and therefore the price is being effected by various things, such as the US…

Companies do bid against that strike price and if it is too low then they don't bid.

Re: Britain: A Cautionary Tale for America

#23
post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> 2020 when switching off the economy squashed all growth The exception here is the US, again. And what did they do differently? Massive QE and "helicopter money". Anti-austerity worked extremely well for growth, even if the debt went up.

Counter-cyclic fiscal policy and QE does work, absolutely, but it's likely dependent on size of economy because in most cases austerity works better...but in most cases the economies are much smaller than America's; Ireland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Italy, Greece (since austerity was forced upon it), HK, Britain could likely've been more austere during the GFC and seen more growth. Then again although not comparab…

I thought austerity failed every time it was tried. When didn't it fail?

Re: Britain: A Cautionary Tale for America

#24
> Another lesson that Americans have already learned is the peril of excessive financialization of the economy

Don't mean to be blunt, but when did that happen? How has a country where you can finance your burrito [1] "learned the perils of excessive financialization"?

Also, a lot of this (especially the slower recovery after 2008) reads more as the perils of being the periphery of an empire vs being the core.

[1] https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/uber-techn...

Re: Britain: A Cautionary Tale for America

#25
post #21
post #11

Note on the economics here; why don't we look at the whole picture rather than one or two countries? Clearly America should be top of this list, right? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_%28no... .. no, that's Monaco. OK, so clearly we should exclude "microstates which are tax havens for billionaires" from the list. Does raise question about whether "excessive financialization of the economy" is a…

> Israel (!) What did you mean by that (!)?

Very different economy from the rest of that list. Economically it's like an Ireland (high tech and services) that spends 8% of its economy on war. And receives significant foreign aid.

Re: Britain: A Cautionary Tale for America

#26
post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> there was no way I could retire early over there. It seems that the UK is becoming the new Portugal (warm retiree destination with stagnant non-retiree economy)

That seems quite a claim from one datapoint...

Ah, more of a joke on your datapoint. And the traditional British practice of retiring to more southern locations in Europe.

Re: Britain: A Cautionary Tale for America

#27

I generally agree with the article but there are a couple of issues. >France has roughly the same population as the U.K., but almost 50 percent more homes. France also has four times the land area compared to the UK. >The Economist ties Britain’s energy scarcity to its overly rapid and haphazard push for decarbonization; having banned coal, and with natural gas now extremely expensive due to the Ukraine war, the UK h…

> The NHS is struggling because we have an unhealthy population

I think we should stop pretending the NHS doesn't have quality and availability issues, which are validly pointed out in the OP article. I was shocked to discover that the NHS is paying out £60bn in compensation: https://www.bmj.com/content/391/bmj.r2211

Some of that seems to be claims inflation, but it also has to indicate a very real problem. The NHS runs an extremely "lean" system where people are triaged and it errs on the side of under-treatment. That saves money on treatment, but has other costs that don't immediately appear.

There are whole areas which are systematically under-funded to the point of nonexistance. If you're going to try for an adult ADHD or autism assessment, you're going to wait a very long time.

I don't have any answers myself, but I do wonder if going for the sacred cow of "free at the point of use" might work. But NHS dentistry isn't free and still experiences massive funding problems.

Re: Britain: A Cautionary Tale for America

#28
post #27

I generally agree with the article but there are a couple of issues. >France has roughly the same population as the U.K., but almost 50 percent more homes. France also has four times the land area compared to the UK. >The Economist ties Britain’s energy scarcity to its overly rapid and haphazard push for decarbonization; having banned coal, and with natural gas now extremely expensive due to the Ukraine war, the UK h…

> The NHS is struggling because we have an unhealthy population I think we should stop pretending the NHS doesn't have quality and availability issues, which are validly pointed out in the OP article. I was shocked to discover that the NHS is paying out £60bn in compensation: https://www.bmj.com/content/391/bmj.r2211 Some of that seems to be claims inflation, but it also has to indicate a very real problem. The NHS r…

The problem with changing the 'free at the point of use' principle is that under any likely replacement it would continue to be free for expectant mothers, children, the disabled, and the elderly - precisely the people who consume the largest proportion of healthcare resources.

And that means that introducing per-appointment charges would likely have only a very minor effect on reducing waste & improving availability. Healthy people of working age would see it as imposing extra charges for no tangible improvement.

Either that, or you'd need to be looking at introducing a two-tier NHS, which I don't think many people would be happy with - "it might work in Europe, but what if it ends up being more like America?" would be the worry.

I think your point about the importance of triage to being able to running "lean" is a better place to look for improvements. The Single Patient Record ought to make automated triage a lot more reliable, for instance. And taking a broader view of ongoing health & economic impacts would help with your ADHD/autism assessment use case, as well as similar issues affecting people of working age (maternity care, being another obvious example).

Re: Britain: A Cautionary Tale for America

#29
post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The NHS is struggling because we have an unhealthy population I think we should stop pretending the NHS doesn't have quality and availability issues, which are validly pointed out in the OP article. I was shocked to discover that the NHS is paying out £60bn in compensation: https://www.bmj.com/content/391/bmj.r2211 Some of that seems to be claims inflation, but it also has to indicate a very real problem. The NHS r…

The problem with changing the 'free at the point of use' principle is that under any likely replacement it would continue to be free for expectant mothers, children, the disabled, and the elderly - precisely the people who consume the largest proportion of healthcare resources. And that means that introducing per-appointment charges would likely have only a very minor effect on reducing waste & improving availability…

i think instead of asking the best way of dividing the costs, we should ask why does it cost so much. we've managed to bring down immensely the cost of technology over the past decades everywhere else.

Re: Britain: A Cautionary Tale for America

#30
post #25
post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Israel (!) What did you mean by that (!)?

Very different economy from the rest of that list. Economically it's like an Ireland (high tech and services) that spends 8% of its economy on war. And receives significant foreign aid.

US foreign aid received per capita is about $300 - against a GDP per capita of about $70,000.

(On the US side the aid sent is $10 per capita per year).

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