Britain: A Cautionary Tale for America
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Britain: A Cautionary Tale for America
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Re: Britain: A Cautionary Tale for America
#2> Whether or not the Brits need our advice, we need to have our own internal discussion about what’s going on over in the UK and how we can use it to inform our own choices. And although there are still a few things to admire across the pond, the UK mostly now functions as a cautionary tale for the U.S. — yes, despite Trump, and guns, and high health care costs.
> Whether you think the UK has been falling behind America economically for a decade or for two decades depends on which set of prices you use to measure living standards. If you use the two countries’ national price indices, the UK has been growing slower than the U.S. since the financial crisis of 2008; if you use PPP prices, as Paul Krugman prefers, the UK’s relative stagnation has come only since Brexit in 2016:
Re: Britain: A Cautionary Tale for America
#3>and with natural gas now extremely expensive due to the Ukraine war, the UK has been forced to rely on hideously expensive offshore wind power
But the wind is cheaper than gas. Yes you could argue that if we had stuck with coal that would have been cheaper than gas or wind, but the long term threat and the long term most expensive option is clear. Wind and solar gives energy independence, so we aren't reliant on a market that could be turned upside down by one country invading another.
Re: Britain: A Cautionary Tale for America
#4>and with natural gas now extremely expensive due to the Ukraine war, the UK has been forced to rely on hideously expensive offshore wind power But the wind is cheaper than gas. Yes you could argue that if we had stuck with coal that would have been cheaper than gas or wind, but the long term threat and the long term most expensive option is clear. Wind and solar gives energy independence, so we aren't reliant on a m…
Even the popular claim that "natural has is extremely expensive due to the Ukraine war" is misleading. In the UK and Europe high prices are by and large the result of policy and in fact high prices is exactly the aim.
Re: Britain: A Cautionary Tale for America
#5Britain and the US are nothing alike in the sense that in Britain, if you are valuable high earning worker you get actively punished for it with heavy and arguable unjust additional taxes. There are real incentives to working less and retiring early in Britain, so that's what most do.
Re: Britain: A Cautionary Tale for America
#6> Whether or not the Brits need our advice, we need to have our own internal discussion about what’s going on over in the UK and how we can use it to inform our own choices. And although there are still a few things to admire across the pond, the UK mostly now functions as a cautionary tale for the U.S. — yes, despite Trump, and guns, and high health care costs. > Whether you think the UK has been falling behind Amer…
>if you use PPP prices ...
it was still on the uptrend until 2020 when switching off the economy squashed all growth and not just in Britain but other major continental economies too, Germany has actually been in and out of recession multiple times since.
2016 added some turbulence to domestic politics and econ but until then our recovery from the GFC had been fast, occasionally faster than the rest of the G7.
Re: Britain: A Cautionary Tale for America
#7>and with natural gas now extremely expensive due to the Ukraine war, the UK has been forced to rely on hideously expensive offshore wind power But the wind is cheaper than gas. Yes you could argue that if we had stuck with coal that would have been cheaper than gas or wind, but the long term threat and the long term most expensive option is clear. Wind and solar gives energy independence, so we aren't reliant on a m…
Even the popular claim that "natural has is extremely expensive due to the Ukraine war" is misleading. In the UK and Europe high prices are by and large the result of policy and in fact high prices is exactly the aim.
In Germany: 0.06 € / kWh was policy, 0.14 € / kWh was mainly Ukraine war. It's currently at about 0.10 € (policy + Ukraine war + Iran war). Taxes are fairly low: 0.0055 € / kWh and the usual 19% VAT.
Re: Britain: A Cautionary Tale for America
#8> Whether or not the Brits need our advice, we need to have our own internal discussion about what’s going on over in the UK and how we can use it to inform our own choices. And although there are still a few things to admire across the pond, the UK mostly now functions as a cautionary tale for the U.S. — yes, despite Trump, and guns, and high health care costs. > Whether you think the UK has been falling behind Amer…
As someone who moved from the UK, to the US and back to the UK, my money goes a lot further in the UK.
I can afford to not work at all here. With health insurance, property taxes, and general outgoings per month being so much higher in the US (California, at least), there was no way I could retire early over there.
And whereas it's easy to hand-wave away "Trump, the healthcare, guns, ... " in a dismissive sentence, those things have real impact on a society and on the individuals living in that society. There's a reason [1] I moved away from the US, and will never return. Money-über-alles has its downside.
It's also worth noting (since the author brings it up) that the Mississippi comparison is pretty bogus. According to data from the Office for National Statistics and the US Census Bureau, median household wealth in Great Britain is substantially higher (around £300,000, or $403,000)[2] compared to the US ($175,000) [3] and Mississippi ($59,000). GDP and personal wealth are not the same thing.
1: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44217106
2: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/personal...
3: https://www2.census.gov/library/publications/2024/demo/p70br...
Re: Britain: A Cautionary Tale for America
#9> Whether or not the Brits need our advice, we need to have our own internal discussion about what’s going on over in the UK and how we can use it to inform our own choices. And although there are still a few things to admire across the pond, the UK mostly now functions as a cautionary tale for the U.S. — yes, despite Trump, and guns, and high health care costs. > Whether you think the UK has been falling behind Amer…
>if you use PPP prices ... it was still on the uptrend until 2020 when switching off the economy squashed all growth and not just in Britain but other major continental economies too, Germany has actually been in and out of recession multiple times since. 2016 added some turbulence to domestic politics and econ but until then our recovery from the GFC had been fast, occasionally faster than the rest of the G7.
Germany isn't doing great, but these current recessions are low grade. Nothing like mid 90s and mid 2000s, unemployment data: https://www.wsi.de/de/erwerbsarbeit-14617-arbeitslosenquoten...
Re: Britain: A Cautionary Tale for America
#10Earlier quoted context omitted.
Even the popular claim that "natural has is extremely expensive due to the Ukraine war" is misleading. In the UK and Europe high prices are by and large the result of policy and in fact high prices is exactly the aim.
In Germany: 0.06 € / kWh was policy, 0.14 € / kWh was mainly Ukraine war. It's currently at about 0.10 € (policy + Ukraine war + Iran war). Taxes are fairly low: 0.0055 € / kWh and the usual 19% VAT.
It is policy to ban shale gas and more North Sea gas. In Germany it is also policy to exit nuclear, like it was policy to depend on Russia. VAT is policy. The Ukraine War is a convenient way to deflect from all the policy choices made over the last 20+ years, while still achieving the aim of high prices.