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The Kimi K3 Moment

stephen.bochinski.dev

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Re: The Kimi K3 Moment

#571

Post by s1artibartfast »

inigyou wrote: post #560
rayiner wrote: post #342

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How is the efficient market hypothesis applicable here?

The efficient market hypothesis, read loosely, says that capitalism is the best system. Yet here it is being thoroughly pwned by a series of 5-year plans.

exactly zero serious people draw that connection, and it suggests that you either dont know what the term means or are constructing a strawman. Most of the economic literature for the last 150 has explored the constraints on markets and their function.

The efficient market hypothesis TM is a very narrow theory about price information, it says nothing about Economic Development or Direction. It is a theoretical extreme that can be used to compare real world Systems.

Further, China's success relies heavily on market processes

Re: The Kimi K3 Moment

#572

Post by reticulates »

RazorBucksICO wrote: post #568
anon373839 wrote: post #223

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I strongly agree with the premise that distillation is not an “attack”. But that said: K3 is not a distilled version of Fable or Sol. Fable has been barely available and Sol was just released! Moreover, K3 is superior to both models in some domains, according to user scoring on the Arena. API distillation can’t give you these results anyway. All it is useful for is bootstrapping RL in new domains to get past the “col…

So if you were to imagine the second largest economy in the world, governed by a monolithic politburo, with a long history of barely concealed programs of corporate and academic espionage, what do you think their approach would be to American technology worth trillions? Now take it a step further, this hypothetical government sees itself as the civilization representation of an ethnic group, and regularly attempts to…

The ego of America to think it is the only place where innovation can happen is pretty funny. Maybe America’s hubris and hostility towards talented foreigners is driving talent towards other countries? China doesn’t need to embed bad actors and spies in Anthropic and OpenAI, the U.S. is sabotaging itself just fine.

America was at the forefront of technology because it attracted the best talent from all over the world. The talent is now staying at home, and America is discovering that America is nothing without immigration. OpenAI and Anthropic are filled with Chinese employees because some of the most talented engineers are Chinese, not because they are spies. Unfortunately, that’s the last generation of Chinese talent that America will get, the latest generation are staying in China.

Americans should be ashamed of what they have fumbled, not conspiratorial about what China is doing.

Re: The Kimi K3 Moment

#573

Post by CharlesW »

fibonacci112358 wrote: post #308
ffsm8 wrote: post #160

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Earlier today I made Claude code implement a feature with fable. It worked roughly 60 minutes and used around 30% of my 100€ subs 5h sessions. Then I typed /code-review in a second terminal/clean session after the analysis was done (no code changes) the usage was 99%. I then asked it to write that into a review.md so I could restart from that the next day. Sadly the last % wasn't enough for that. Ymmv, these models b…

/code-review in Claude Code spawns a lot of sub-agents (counted like 8 once), each looking at the code from some certain aspect (like correctness, maintainability, duplication, testing, etc). It eats tokens like crazy doing that, but also covers quite a lot. The default code review in Codex does far less (feels like it's only correctness) and doesn't uses subagents. Actually I made a skill for Codex that does a revie…

You can do `/code-review low` to more closely match Codex's default behavior.

Re: The Kimi K3 Moment

#574

Post by RazorBucksICO »

disentanglement wrote: post #383
tristanj wrote: post #373

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The main story is what isn't being talked about. Chinese labs exfiltrated trillions of tokens of high-quality output from Anthropic and OpenAI, through proxies and heavily discounted token resellers, which they distilled and used for training data for their own models. Instead of spending 12-18 months building their own robust harnesses and painstakingly creating quality training data (which is what Anthropic and Ope…

I could perhaps get myself to care just the tiniest bit if the information that was supposedly stolen wasn't generated by "stealing" from everybody else. Either it is fair use to train AI models on whatever information you can get your hands on for everyone or for no one.

Training data that’s still sitting in the pages of a book is not really all that useful.

Re: The Kimi K3 Moment

#576

Post by bel8 »

Sammi wrote: post #554
bel8 wrote: post #538

Earlier quoted context omitted.

https://openrouter.ai/rankings#top-models Chinese models dwarf USA models usage. And now there's a Fable/5.6 alternative. The gap widens. Now go and ask for your GP poster for their data as well. Unless you're only interested in data that supports your bias ofc.

I've seen that, but that's clearly a skewed dataset, right? People using openrouter will be those seeking other models. They are not the same kind of people who mostly just use gpt or claude.

I would agree if openrouter was the only provider of those.

But those LLMs are also offered outside openrouter.

Re: The Kimi K3 Moment

#577

Post by wg0 »

> tied to the corrupt Trump administration that are neither the highest quality nor the cheapest

Someone is calling corrupt as corrupt. Surprising.

Re: The Kimi K3 Moment

#578

Post by t0mpr1c3 »

dgellow wrote: post #485
t0mpr1c3 wrote: post #168

Earlier quoted context omitted.

EU countries are homeshoring their digital stacks as fast as they possibly can, and the reason is precisely because of the pressure that the US government is exerting via its (temporary) dominance in technology.

That’s really something that has to be seen, we (European countries) talk a lot about sovereign software but have very little to show for it. Things are moving but it’s still mostly a political posturing more than anything else. Might be different in a few years

Presumably the first step is changing the perception that US service providers are the only options.

I dislike the term "sovereign software" because it collapses every aspect of the discussion. It is intentionally dumb, a slogan.

But now that politicians have waved their slogan around, perhaps some actions can be taken.

Re: The Kimi K3 Moment

#579

Post by sensanaty »

gpm wrote: post #466
socialcommenter wrote: post #408

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In a just world, the punishment can be more than just the sum of the direct damages, otherwise there's no incentive to stop reoffending. Anthropic (and friends) proved they're willing to do obviously illegal things, and it didn't end them. Why do we think they stopped after doing it once?

In this world too, the punishment was, ballpark, 100x direct damages.

> In this world too, the punishment was, ballpark, 100x direct damages.

Which ballpark are you playing in to come to a number like that? I have friends whom are authors, and they've certainly not seen a penny from Anthropic. I somehow doubt they're the only ones out there that haven't been compensated for having their work blatantly stolen. In a just world we'd be ensuring Anthropic was destroyed as a result of their actions, since their entire existence hinged on en-masse piracy.

Re: The Kimi K3 Moment

#580

Post by petesergeant »

qalmakka wrote: post #163
petesergeant wrote: post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The valuation is based on one lab getting a decisive first advantage, and turning that into a durable self-improving advantage that can never be caught up to. If any can pull it off (a gigantic if), they will effectively own most AI value, and the people who own their shares will live happily ever after. Divide your investment between the labs that could plausibly do this, and your EV may not be dreadful.

This is clearly not how it's going though. Any advancement from any lab has been quickly (< 6 months) matched up by basically everybody else. Even Grok nowadays is decent, and that's something. When something like you've described actually happened historically you generally had quite fast a clear frontrunner and a bunch of copycats that failed miserably; in 2026 we are very far from that. we are heading face-first i…

This is not how it’s going right now, and FWIW I also don’t think it’s going to go that way, but it’s certainly a plausible investment thesis.
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