Traders are increasingly betting against SpaceX just weeks after IPO

Post by rogerrogerr » Sat, Jul 18, 2026, 10:21 PM UTC

brazukadev wrote: post #21

rogerrogerr wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Musk's shares are locked up for a year.

and? Are you implying that Elon doesn't own the 80B spacex got from the IPO?

Post by kubb » Sat, Jul 18, 2026, 10:30 PM UTC

John23832 wrote: post #23

lokar wrote: post #3

Seems odd that they don't discuss a common reason to short a stock: you expect it to go down, without any real opinion on the business. In this case there is going to be a ton of new float fairly soon. It's a pretty safe bet that this will depress the price. So the natural trade is to sell now (short), and buy later (cover the short). That effectively moves the future price drop to "now", which is likely what we see.…

> Seems odd that they don't discuss a common reason to short a stock: you expect it to go down, without any real opinion on the business. The reverse is true for meme stocks as well. You can buy a stock because you expect it to go up without any real opinion on the business. Though we all know the opinion on the business. Great science project, bad business.

Post by shawn_w » Sat, Jul 18, 2026, 11:00 PM UTC

da-x wrote: post #7

kingstnap wrote: post #5

"Just weeks" Weeks is an enormous amount of time now actually. The majority of plays in what people do with stocks is actually very short term. People aren't the kind of Berkshire buy and hold-ers anymore. If you look it up 60% of options volumes on the S&P 500 is 0 days to expiry. Literally gambling if it goes up and down this day. Btw its not just the US that's like this. South Koreas 2x single stock ETF debacle an…

And on the other hand, there's a whole movement (in niche terms, though) of people going "just add to an S&P 500 ETF for 50 years and forget about everything else".

Post by brazukadev » Sun, Jul 19, 2026, 8:45 AM UTC

rogerrogerr wrote: post #22

brazukadev wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

and? Are you implying that Elon doesn't own the 80B spacex got from the IPO?

I am implying that because it is true. SpaceX owns the $80B. Elon owns stock in SpaceX. The IPO was a primary offering in which SpaceX issued new shares and received the proceeds. If Elon had personally sold shares, the prospectus would have identified him (or other selling shareholders) in a secondary offering. It doesn’t.

Post by rlt » Mon, Jul 20, 2026, 4:01 AM UTC

bostik wrote: post #29

lokar wrote: post #3

Seems odd that they don't discuss a common reason to short a stock: you expect it to go down, without any real opinion on the business. In this case there is going to be a ton of new float fairly soon. It's a pretty safe bet that this will depress the price. So the natural trade is to sell now (short), and buy later (cover the short). That effectively moves the future price drop to "now", which is likely what we see.…

Matt Levine pointed out to a likely culprit, and it indeed has nothing to do with the business outlooks.[0] SpaceX sold only 5% of their stock in the IPO. Earliest lockups will start to [partially] expire in mid-August, bringing in further 7% of SpaceX stock to market. If you expect the market to be flooded with >2x volume of supply, you can either sell right now before the price drops even further or hold and wait f…