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The Kimi K3 Moment

stephen.bochinski.dev

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Re: The Kimi K3 Moment

#61

Post by dehrmann »

SwellJoe wrote: post #8

I tried Kimi K3 on a task I've done with every other model I use regularly ( https://swelljoe.com/post/i-let-every-agent-implement-its-ow... ) and found it chewed a lot longer on the problem and ate up almost the entirety of a 5 hour usage limit on their $19 plan. I only have the $20 plan from OpenAI and the same task, with a lot of the same implementation details as Kimi Code, only took a few minutes and consumed al…

> Subscription usage limits are hard to measure as none of the providers tell you directly what it means in terms of tokens or anything else you can easily compare

AI subscription pricing is so goofy. You get some amount of usage that varies by models, is measured by opaque token usage, driven by how many tokens the (usually) vendor-provided interface (or model itself) wants to use. Then your usage is limited by time opaque time windows.

Re: The Kimi K3 Moment

#62

Post by 650 »

ctoth wrote: post #26

> The prices are nowhere near each other. K3’s API runs $3 per million input tokens and $15 per million output. Claude’s top model costs $10 and $50 for the same units. And this is the point where your internal compiler should have started shouting 'Type Error' Notice the trick here? > Then there’s the fine print. Claude couldn’t sustain Fable access on the twenty dollar plan, so they turned it off, and the plan quie…

> Where is the Fable-class Kimi model at all?

6 months away

Re: The Kimi K3 Moment

#63

Post by arjie »

cuuupid wrote: post #29
petilon wrote: post #24

The current administration's immigration policy isn't helping. This wouldn't have happened 10 years ago because the US was this city on the hill that everyone wanted to immigrate to. Talented Asian researchers would have immigrated to the US and China would be deprived of talent.

The visa that would correlate to this is the O-1 visa 20k O-1 visas were issued last FY which was mostly under the Trump admin, up from 19.5k the previous FY under the Biden admin

This is why VC is actually hard. Everyone’s instinct is always “Man, once the company has demonstrated it’s awesome I would love to have been in the seed round”. The tendency to want “proven performers” is the default belief.

When people demonstrate their capability thoroughly, the Chinese government takes away their passports. You’re not exactly going to get them here with an O-1.

Re: The Kimi K3 Moment

#64

Post by boondongle »

nickysielicki wrote: post #33

Regardless of whether they achieved parity via distillation, or whether they got here via independently constructing a model from scratch, it was always going to end this way for the frontier American labs. Distillation “attacks” are not attacks. The frontier labs “distilled” all existing human written knowledge into their models, there was always going to be a second class lab that would distill that model into a ch…

Almost all markets depend on some form of regulation whether its as simple as "leave everyone alone but no stealing" or "every participant has to source every object through mountains of red tape."

Thus far the US has not really chosen to go the Chinese rare-earth method yet. The problem with distillation attacks is the end result is everyone who is not doing them is going to deal with some kind of regulation whether it's complete loss of access, or the amount of control you'll have to give up to access them will be ridiculous.

Sort of like the "stealing music is fine" but "lets freak out now that it's producing visual art", in the end the entire thing is a social construct. Whether this is treated as theft or "business as usual" is entirely societal.

Eventually the gap will close, unless there's a major breakthrough that hasn't been made yet.

Re: The Kimi K3 Moment

#66

Post by traverseda »

milkshakes wrote: post #59
nickysielicki wrote: post #33

Regardless of whether they achieved parity via distillation, or whether they got here via independently constructing a model from scratch, it was always going to end this way for the frontier American labs. Distillation “attacks” are not attacks. The frontier labs “distilled” all existing human written knowledge into their models, there was always going to be a second class lab that would distill that model into a ch…

assume you are a "second class lab" and you are in fact making progress by distilling the results of the frontier labs' efforts. what is the end game for this strategy? if the frontier labs shut down, or stop releasing to the public, and there's noting left to distill, how will you progress?

In public with budgets that don't risk destroying the American economy presumably. Yes it may be slower.

Re: The Kimi K3 Moment

#67

Post by [deleted] »

qalmakka wrote: post #54

I never truly understood what the intended business model around LLMs was. Get them widespread through cheap pricing and then jacking it up? Being the only ones that had a viable product so to get the ability to extract as much value as you want from AI? I don't understand how a product that: - is interfaced with and is deeply linked to natural language, so everything you produce (sessions, history, etc) is in Markdo…

[deleted]

Re: The Kimi K3 Moment

#68

Post by milkshakes »

traverseda wrote: post #66
milkshakes wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

assume you are a "second class lab" and you are in fact making progress by distilling the results of the frontier labs' efforts. what is the end game for this strategy? if the frontier labs shut down, or stop releasing to the public, and there's noting left to distill, how will you progress?

In public with budgets that don't risk destroying the American economy presumably. Yes it may be slower.

> with budgets

and what will fund these budgets exactly? inference is cheap, distillation is cheap, training is what's expensive.

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