SpaceX stock drops to a new low and loses $1T in value in a month • Hacker News Board

Re: SpaceX stock drops to a new low and loses $1T in value in a month

#71

Post by stasomatic » Sat, Jul 18, 2026, 2:16 PM UTC

Freedom2 wrote: post #64

notahacker wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This has been done on HN a few times. The heat dissipation argument is a solved problem with known physics, it's just that pointing out the inefficiency of radiative cooling is the correct response to the daft claim that "space is cold" (the solution is "launch lots of additional mass into space every 5 years" which isn't exactly cheap). Though that claim is still better than Elon trying to tell idiots that SpaceX's…

Elon has mentioned before that he intends to place AI-powered factories in space that will manufacture and install new chips, while recycling the older ones. He says it's going to be fully self-sufficient.

Good one. Are they going to synthesize silica in orbit as well, from dark matter?

Re: SpaceX stock drops to a new low and loses $1T in value in a month

#72

Post by FloorEgg » Sat, Jul 18, 2026, 4:35 PM UTC

lukeschlather wrote: post #66

FloorEgg wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Comparing revenue, without at least also comparing revenue growth rates and leverage ratios is really nonsense financial analysis. It was the same thing with Tesla. Everyone screaming when Tesla had. $20bn market cap how they were extremely over valued because their car sales revenue paled in comparison to the other car manufacturers and yet their market cap was in the same ballpark. It was such a joke and so obvious…

I think Lockheed Martin is less leveraged than either SpaceX or Tesla. Also SpaceX just folded in several of Musk's companies that seemed questionably solvent. I really have zero clue how to value the resulting mess of liabilities and highly questionable revenue streams mixed with very solid ones, but $200B doesn't sound unreasonable. $1.6T sounds very high. My intention behind comparing to Lockheed Martin was to pre…

I haven't done a financial deep dive into SpaceX since all the consolidation, been focused on other things, so I really don't know how to price it either. It feels overpriced to me too.

That said, I would expect SpaceX to grow at a compound rate much faster and for longer than any legacy competitor such as Lockheed.

Re: SpaceX stock drops to a new low and loses $1T in value in a month

#73

Post by xorcist » Sat, Jul 18, 2026, 5:42 PM UTC

throwaway13337 wrote: post #37

Are there any reasonable analyses of the practicality of data centers in space? I know Dwarkesh Patel was interviewing Elon and brought up the fact that power cost for data centers is only 20%. The number I could find is 7-18%? GPUs are the majority of the cost. I don't think Elon responded directly to that. There's the argument that licensing to build these things is cheaper in space. But earth has a lot of space in…

> Are there any reasonable analyses of the practicality of data centers in space?

The purpose of "datacenters -- in space!" isn't to actually lift server racks into orbit, one piece at a time.

It serves the same purpose as every Tesla serving extra as autonomous taxis, as people travelling by hyperloop instead of a functional train service, and as humanoid robots doing your dishes instead of the normal robots called dish washing machines.

None of these things are meant to be taken literally. Yet they all seems to have worked out just fine.

For these arguments to carry pathos they all need have a grain of truth to them. There will be local AI in satellites, for "special" applications. Think image processing for birds that have a very nice high resolution view of your back yard, and whose decisions must be low latency or when bandwith is an issue. The trick to the argument to to blur the issue by conflating it with the datacenter AI that anyone can use.