321–330 of 379 posts
Exactly 4 months ago, the marketshare on openrouter was 60%-40% in favor of closed models. Now it's 63%-37% in favor of open models. On March 19th, the open models processed 888B tokens in aggregate, yesterday, they processed 4.19T tokens in aggregate. That's almost 5x in 4 months! I can't think of the right intensifier to describe this level of growth. If you are looking for more details (as inferred by openrouter d…
Speculation: open models is what will kill Anthropic and OpenAI. Hyperscalers can run the models without a licensing fee. Apple can make them smaller and put them on the device. The frontier models are an edge and a liability. They're astronomically expensive to train. Without them, their models will fade into obscurity. Their marketing depends on people believing the models are meaningfully different, as people have…
The outcome is plausible. Open weights models though look like a tactical more than a principled play by Chinese companies to overcome the disadvantage and difficulties to access western markets. Two issues: 1. If market conditions change they might decide to close down like Meta did. 2. If as you said models keep getting more expensive to train, is an open weights strategy financially sustainable? edit: typo
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And who might that be, I wonder? The company that seems more worried about executive bonuses than to adhere to its mission, for at least a decade now? Perhaps a certain one whose name starts with M and ends with ozilla? Purely random thought, of course.
I don’t know. thinking machines perhaps? A lot of things have to come together: talent, capital that is not looking to maximize returns, ambition to compete in the marketplace. At peak Mozilla it was clear to everyone that we needed an undeniably successful product to be able to influence the market. Advocacy alone is not very effective.
They killed extensions. They introduced signed extensions - and then forgot to renew the certificate. Mozilla employees build what they want, not ehat users want etc.
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The outcome is plausible. Open weights models though look like a tactical more than a principled play by Chinese companies to overcome the disadvantage and difficulties to access western markets. Two issues: 1. If market conditions change they might decide to close down like Meta did. 2. If as you said models keep getting more expensive to train, is an open weights strategy financially sustainable? edit: typo
It is a principled play by the Chinese. You would not have Xi showing up at AI conferences and speaking quite clearly had this not been the case.
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Buddy, you should take a real hard look at US policy this past decade or so. We've got secret police kidnapping citizens in broad daylight and shipping them off to other countries. We tarriffed the entire world, threatened to take over Greenland and Canada and waged an unprovoked war in Iran (and lost, badly). And let's not forget the mass surveillance of citizens, suppression of constitutional rights to speech and a…
It appears you are unable or unwilling to answer my question: which country, US or China, is closer to Mussolini's model?
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Buddy, you should take a real hard look at US policy this past decade or so. We've got secret police kidnapping citizens in broad daylight and shipping them off to other countries. We tarriffed the entire world, threatened to take over Greenland and Canada and waged an unprovoked war in Iran (and lost, badly). And let's not forget the mass surveillance of citizens, suppression of constitutional rights to speech and a…
It appears you are unable or unwilling to answer my question: which country, US or China, is closer to Mussolini's model?
Wikipedia has a whole page on the definition of Fascism [1]. Also worth reading is Umberto Eco's article on this subject, which also has its own wikipedia page [2].
Spoiler alert: it's not as simple as you imagine.
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Definitions_of_fascism [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ur-Fascism
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Buddy, you should take a real hard look at US policy this past decade or so. We've got secret police kidnapping citizens in broad daylight and shipping them off to other countries. We tarriffed the entire world, threatened to take over Greenland and Canada and waged an unprovoked war in Iran (and lost, badly). And let's not forget the mass surveillance of citizens, suppression of constitutional rights to speech and a…
It appears you are unable or unwilling to answer my question: which country, US or China, is closer to Mussolini's model?
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The outcome is plausible. Open weights models though look like a tactical more than a principled play by Chinese companies to overcome the disadvantage and difficulties to access western markets. Two issues: 1. If market conditions change they might decide to close down like Meta did. 2. If as you said models keep getting more expensive to train, is an open weights strategy financially sustainable? edit: typo
It is a principled play by the Chinese. You would not have Xi showing up at AI conferences and speaking quite clearly had this not been the case.
How is that an indicator of a principled play? Wouldn't he do the same if it was tactical?
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That's probably pretty likely, but if we're honest, are LLMs built and funded by a hostile Chinese authoritarian regime any more dangerous or harmful than LLMs built and funded by a hostile American authoritarian regime? China absolutely does not have my best interests at heart, but America's technofascism is probably more immediately dangerous and harmful. Americans genuinely have more to fear from America than Chin…
Define technofascism lol. Fascism was laid out by Mussolini in the 1920s - it amounts to the idolatry of the state. "All within the state, nothing outside the state, nothing against the state." B Mussolini Also defined as Corporatism: the union of state and corporate power. Which country do you think is closer to Mussolini's model ?
I recommend Umberto Ecco's essay "Ur-Fascism" [1] if you want to get a more accurate picture of what fascism is. It might make you reconsider which of these two countries fits the pattern better, at least at the moment.
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Correct me if I'm wrong, but OpenRouter doesn't tell the whole story. If I'm using OpenAI, Anthropic, or Google models, I'm probably using their API directly, so OpenRouter won't have those stats to compare to. All that said, it is very exciting to see open model usage grow via OpenRouter.
It doesn’t show the whole market of course, but the trend lines are interesting
For example, they changed their fee structure in June. It is possible that users of closed models moved from OpenRouter to directly using OpenAI/Anthropic/Google (or maybe Amazon Bedrock), while users of open models are happy with OpenRouter as direct providers can sometimes be unstable.