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The OpenAI Bubble

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Re: The OpenAI Bubble

#11

Post by watwut »

newaccountman2 wrote: post #5
Marciplan wrote: post #2

I've got a yearly subscription to Ed and from time to time I still like to read it; but this constant ALL IS BAD! SCAM! SCAM! I AM VERY SMART! OHHHH I TOLD YOU SOOO!!!!! is so annoying to read, and he's mostly verbatim re-hashing his previous posts in every next article. I completely believe him on it being a bubble, that this is not-a-Uber-situation, and that it's worse than whatever-you-might-call-it — but get a gr…

yeah if you look at past bubbles, such as railroads, they were all genuinely useful developments. They were simply overvalued, largely because the timeline is longer than people are betting on or suggesting. This Zitron guy keeps saying AI isn't actually useful, doesn't he? That's patently false.

That is not what history of those was. They were waste, fallout was painful for a lot of innocents and recovery long. And they were not just an issue of not guessing the timeline.

Re: The OpenAI Bubble

#12

Post by watwut »

acuteaura wrote: post #6
newaccountman2 wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

yeah if you look at past bubbles, such as railroads, they were all genuinely useful developments. They were simply overvalued, largely because the timeline is longer than people are betting on or suggesting. This Zitron guy keeps saying AI isn't actually useful, doesn't he? That's patently false.

AI has a corrosive effect on everything it touches. I go to work and notice that everyone else is on a path to mentally checking out. Nobody values anyone's time anymore, nobody seems to weigh the cost of maintenance or conceptual work given creation is seemingly free. People get used to taking shortcuts, both for their work and also in their thinking. I feel like the only sane person left in my team, like everyone e…

Management wont change anything until THEY have issue at hands. Fighting and explaining does nothing.

The less your colleagues care, the faster the company gets there. Unfortunately.

Re: The OpenAI Bubble

#13

Post by SaucyWrong »

newaccountman2 wrote: post #5
Marciplan wrote: post #2

I've got a yearly subscription to Ed and from time to time I still like to read it; but this constant ALL IS BAD! SCAM! SCAM! I AM VERY SMART! OHHHH I TOLD YOU SOOO!!!!! is so annoying to read, and he's mostly verbatim re-hashing his previous posts in every next article. I completely believe him on it being a bubble, that this is not-a-Uber-situation, and that it's worse than whatever-you-might-call-it — but get a gr…

yeah if you look at past bubbles, such as railroads, they were all genuinely useful developments. They were simply overvalued, largely because the timeline is longer than people are betting on or suggesting. This Zitron guy keeps saying AI isn't actually useful, doesn't he? That's patently false.

I read him regularly. My appraisal is that he never goes so far as to say, “LLMs are not useful.”

He constantly says LLMs do not and will not measure up to the hyperbolic capabilities the CEOs of their companies, their boosters, and a compliant tech media say they will do.

Re: The OpenAI Bubble

#14

Post by diogenescynic »

Marciplan wrote: post #2

I've got a yearly subscription to Ed and from time to time I still like to read it; but this constant ALL IS BAD! SCAM! SCAM! I AM VERY SMART! OHHHH I TOLD YOU SOOO!!!!! is so annoying to read, and he's mostly verbatim re-hashing his previous posts in every next article. I completely believe him on it being a bubble, that this is not-a-Uber-situation, and that it's worse than whatever-you-might-call-it — but get a gr…

It reminds me of the people who have been saying real estate was going to crash since like 2018. And I like Ed Zitron a lot and think he's right about a lot, but ultimate markets can be irrational for so long that that what he's saying may not actually play out to the extent he says so.

Re: The OpenAI Bubble

#15

Post by acuteaura »

telxosis wrote: post #10
acuteaura wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

AI has a corrosive effect on everything it touches. I go to work and notice that everyone else is on a path to mentally checking out. Nobody values anyone's time anymore, nobody seems to weigh the cost of maintenance or conceptual work given creation is seemingly free. People get used to taking shortcuts, both for their work and also in their thinking. I feel like the only sane person left in my team, like everyone e…

It is just such an absurd statement to believe Claude is "frying my brain". It is hard to describe how utterly stupid that comment is from my perspective. I was just walking earlier today listening to an AI converted audio book of Knowledge and the Flow of Information by Fred Dretske. It is exactly the kind of thing that I would have never found just a few years ago. Or it must be you just such a genius that already…

access to knowledge isn't the problem. if you use models to learn, good for you.

people around me use models to replace their critical thinking though, and i consider this a structural issue - with how incentives are laid out at my workplace but also as a cognitive trap where you think you get more done, but you're actually unlearning fundamental skills instead of supplementing your existing ones.

this is a good summary: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00146-025-02686-z

Re: The OpenAI Bubble

#16

Post by acuteaura »

periodjet wrote: post #8
acuteaura wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

AI has a corrosive effect on everything it touches. I go to work and notice that everyone else is on a path to mentally checking out. Nobody values anyone's time anymore, nobody seems to weigh the cost of maintenance or conceptual work given creation is seemingly free. People get used to taking shortcuts, both for their work and also in their thinking. I feel like the only sane person left in my team, like everyone e…

That’s not a problem with the tool, it’s a problem with the team / the people.

i consider it intrinsic to the technology. i don't think most people can resist the temptation of feeling a lot more productive than they reasonably can be at the cost of understanding what they're doing (and the fundamental skill of caring about their own work; turbo alienation).

and those that don't fall into this trap will be dragged in sooner or later by peer pressure and bullshit KPIs.

Re: The OpenAI Bubble

#17

Post by acuteaura »

watwut wrote: post #12
acuteaura wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

AI has a corrosive effect on everything it touches. I go to work and notice that everyone else is on a path to mentally checking out. Nobody values anyone's time anymore, nobody seems to weigh the cost of maintenance or conceptual work given creation is seemingly free. People get used to taking shortcuts, both for their work and also in their thinking. I feel like the only sane person left in my team, like everyone e…

Management wont change anything until THEY have issue at hands. Fighting and explaining does nothing. The less your colleagues care, the faster the company gets there. Unfortunately.

I'm not convinced the result will not be "good enough". It looks like one might get away with shipping half-baked shit, just like before, but the speed difference incentivizes it a lot more now. Output quality is not really the issue I'm looking at. More what this has done to my own an my coworkers capability to care and mental health.

Re: The OpenAI Bubble

#18

Post by newaccountman2 »

acuteaura wrote: post #6
newaccountman2 wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

yeah if you look at past bubbles, such as railroads, they were all genuinely useful developments. They were simply overvalued, largely because the timeline is longer than people are betting on or suggesting. This Zitron guy keeps saying AI isn't actually useful, doesn't he? That's patently false.

AI has a corrosive effect on everything it touches. I go to work and notice that everyone else is on a path to mentally checking out. Nobody values anyone's time anymore, nobody seems to weigh the cost of maintenance or conceptual work given creation is seemingly free. People get used to taking shortcuts, both for their work and also in their thinking. I feel like the only sane person left in my team, like everyone e…

> I go to work and notice that everyone else is on a path to mentally checking out.

This is a problem with your company and the people with whom you work, not with AI.

Re: The OpenAI Bubble

#19

Post by newaccountman2 »

telxosis wrote: post #10
acuteaura wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

AI has a corrosive effect on everything it touches. I go to work and notice that everyone else is on a path to mentally checking out. Nobody values anyone's time anymore, nobody seems to weigh the cost of maintenance or conceptual work given creation is seemingly free. People get used to taking shortcuts, both for their work and also in their thinking. I feel like the only sane person left in my team, like everyone e…

It is just such an absurd statement to believe Claude is "frying my brain". It is hard to describe how utterly stupid that comment is from my perspective. I was just walking earlier today listening to an AI converted audio book of Knowledge and the Flow of Information by Fred Dretske. It is exactly the kind of thing that I would have never found just a few years ago. Or it must be you just such a genius that already…

Agreed.

For example, I am learning about finance and Rust right now with LLM help. I'm not about to ace Wharton undergrad exams or deploy Rust to prod without LLM assistance, but LLMs have been such a solid enabler in getting going with these things that I have been trying to learn more about for some time.

I think the person to whom you are replying could also benefit from them if he stopped blaming the problems he is seeing on AI itself and correctly recognizes that the people he works with are the problem.

Re: The OpenAI Bubble

#20

Post by acuteaura »

newaccountman2 wrote: post #19
telxosis wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is just such an absurd statement to believe Claude is "frying my brain". It is hard to describe how utterly stupid that comment is from my perspective. I was just walking earlier today listening to an AI converted audio book of Knowledge and the Flow of Information by Fred Dretske. It is exactly the kind of thing that I would have never found just a few years ago. Or it must be you just such a genius that already…

Agreed. For example, I am learning about finance and Rust right now with LLM help. I'm not about to ace Wharton undergrad exams or deploy Rust to prod without LLM assistance, but LLMs have been such a solid enabler in getting going with these things that I have been trying to learn more about for some time. I think the person to whom you are replying could also benefit from them if he stopped blaming the problems he…

This is like blaming nicotine addiction on the user and not the nicotine for the purpose of defending nicotine use.

How people use AI is a structural problem. Just because you have an easy time using it to learn (good for you, genuinely) doesn't mean that such a product existing in a free market capitalist society isn't going to end in disaster where people will at best fall victim to the dunning-kruger effect constantly and stop valuing their peers' time and at worst roast their brains by unlearning how to acquire actual skills.

And it's not like the AI labs don't know this is happening. Their research arms regularly publish papers confirming dependence and deskilling are not uncommon in very carefully worded language. And still Anthropic is happily extending your Fable trial!

Yes sure, my coworkers are the tip of the iceberg here, but that doesn't mean AI is value-neutral. And we're not even discussing the ethics axis (because honestly, tiring; capitalism doesn't value ecology or any ethics when inconvenient and AI isn't special there)

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