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Newly retired couples may lose $16,900/year in Social Security in 2033

usatoday.com

51–60 of 76 posts

Re: Newly retired couples may lose $16,900/year in Social Security in 2033

#51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People are living longer sure, but are they fit for work longer? Or just living longer with dementia and stuff?

Ya, there are wide different outcomes to consider with respect to health. Also people should really be retiring earlier, not later, as automation picks up. The way things are progressing right now are just whack.

Personally I watched my Grandpa wither away from Parkinsons and eventually Alzheimer's for over a decade, starting only a couple of years after he retired. He spent most of his retired life in hospice care not recognizing his children or grandchildren.

Knowing that is likely my eventual fate too, I really don't want to wait to the last possible minute to retire.

It's a huge shame we can't accurately predict future illnesses and such, we could plan so much more effectively. As it stands we have to do our best and live good lives before we aren't capable of that anymore. Many people won't have a nice retirement. Many won't even live that long in the first place. Society can probably do better for everyone than we currently do

Re: Newly retired couples may lose $16,900/year in Social Security in 2033

#52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Famously, America has shown to be exceptionally skilled at getting the rich to help pay for society they sit on top of.

It's hard to tell whether this is sarcastic, because like the safety of nuclear energy, it's literally true but few people believe it.

No it isn’t. Not since the 80s at least.

Re: Newly retired couples may lose $16,900/year in Social Security in 2033

#53
post #34
post #18

Can someone explain the legal structures in place in the US that make Social Security "run out"? Because it just sounds like deliberate indirection put in place by the government to cut funding for pensions? In Australia, we have a universal, means-tested pension funded through consolidated revenue (i.e taxes). The pension can't "run out", because it is just a law that says that the government will pay you $X after y…

Social Security will not run out. It simply won't be taxing current workers enough to pay current retirees. This demographic problem was easily foreseen which is why there is a trust fund to "run out" to begin with. For quite some time social security operated in a surplus since there were many workers per retiree collecting benefits. Now we are around 3:1 workers:retirees and expected to drop to something like 2.2:1…

This is the confusing thing, the way it is described is like a hybrid of government welfare and a defined-benefit pension.

How can you simultaneously be "paying into" social security but also have describe it as current workers paying for current retirees?

The only way you really find out which one it is is what happens when it runs out of money - if the government backs it up to give you the full "entitlement" you paid into it, then you were in-fact "paying into it". But if they don't, or change the rules then it sounds like you were just being taxed.

Re: Newly retired couples may lose $16,900/year in Social Security in 2033

#54
post #37
post #18

Can someone explain the legal structures in place in the US that make Social Security "run out"? Because it just sounds like deliberate indirection put in place by the government to cut funding for pensions? In Australia, we have a universal, means-tested pension funded through consolidated revenue (i.e taxes). The pension can't "run out", because it is just a law that says that the government will pay you $X after y…

Social security can 'run out', because it's setup with separate accounting. It's sort of designed that current year social security taxes pay for current year benefits ... in the 70s and 80s increases in taxes and decreases in benefits lead to a surplus of taxes collected which was held under the social security account. Since about 2009, income and costs have been pretty close and since about 2017, costs have consis…

> Closing social security off to new workers doesn't help, because current workers pay the bulk of current benefits

You don't have to reduce the taxes. Just phase out the concept that you are paying into a retirement account and call a tax a tax. That means you don't calculate how much an individual receives based on the amount they input.

In Australia, we started a sovereign wealth fund[1] to cover the future liabilities from existing workers eligible for government defined-benefits pensions and closed them to new members. I guess that wouldn't make a lot of sense in the US though given the amount of government debt the US has.

Nowdays in Australia people just have accumulation accounts (super) and the backstop of the universal aged pension.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Future_Fund

Re: Newly retired couples may lose $16,900/year in Social Security in 2033

#55
post #40
post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The narrative and word choices are deliberate. Republicans want to get rid of Social Security. So the narrative is Social Security is fundamentally broken, and it can be silently ended through passive negligence without having to take responsibility for ending a popular entitlement. No matter that it was created with the expectation that Congress would periodically adjust the retirement age to keep it solvent, and th…

I don't quite understand what you mean the narrative here -- cash flow going negative is a fact. Attempts to discuss the COLA issues in 1970s-1980s [1] have failed. Attempts in the early aughts to divert funds by Bush Jr. [2] (long before I could even vote) were rejected in part because of skepticism stock returns would not perform well. And even today where we have additional tax breaks for seniors under the OBBA. T…

In the 1984 Social Security was in the same situation it was today. To balance things Congress (among other lesser measures) set a new schedule for bumping the retirement age, the last step of which only took effect recently. It's not a coincidence. It's been over 40 years since then; it had been 49 years between then and the creation of Social Security.

The narrative is that Social Security is broken because previous generations were idiots who didn't understand or care that lifespans would increase, yet chose to create a fundamentally unsustainable entitlement program anyhow. But lifespans are right on track today as expected in 1984, just like lifespans in 1984 were exactly where actuarial tables predicted them to be in 1935. And Congress in 1984 expected their successors to do today what the 1935 Congress expected of them. A program isn't fundamentally broken just because periodic maintenance is required. OTOH, in theory the 1935 Congress could have attempted to implement a perpetually self-healing, self-executing algorithm, as could have the 1984 Congress. They didn't because politics doesn't work that way; kicking the can down the road to a future Congress is typical, though kicking it 40-50 years down the road is pretty laudable, all things considered.

Obamacare did try to create a self-executing process to reevaluate costs, and it failed miserably, because it required perennially revisiting contentious points of policy, and to do so outside Congress. The president had the responsibility, but no accountability, because failure would be blamed on Congress, and the Democrats especially. In that light, the approach taken wrt Social Security seems prudent.

Re: Newly retired couples may lose $16,900/year in Social Security in 2033

#56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ya, there are wide different outcomes to consider with respect to health. Also people should really be retiring earlier, not later, as automation picks up. The way things are progressing right now are just whack.

Personally I watched my Grandpa wither away from Parkinsons and eventually Alzheimer's for over a decade, starting only a couple of years after he retired. He spent most of his retired life in hospice care not recognizing his children or grandchildren. Knowing that is likely my eventual fate too, I really don't want to wait to the last possible minute to retire. It's a huge shame we can't accurately predict future il…

The sad thing is that those people who need social security the most usually have it for the least amount of time. Obviously are priorities suck.

Re: Newly retired couples may lose $16,900/year in Social Security in 2033

#57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If nothing is done it’s a mathematical fact. The problem is that there are no plans to do anything yet, each administration and congress seeing it as too politically volatile to deal with, which means we will have a last minute suboptimal solution. Obviously there are solutions. Maybe if America survives that long we might see one implemented.

The hole can be filled overnight by just raising the retirement age. And if you normalize for longer lifespans, it's perfectly reasonable.

Great, so everyone in their 60s works for a decade more, as their health declines, and everyone under 60 has to deal with the increased unemployment that would cause.

It would be better to just get rid of the loophole for the rentier class (The FICA cap at $186,000), and this actually would be solved.

Re: Newly retired couples may lose $16,900/year in Social Security in 2033

#58
post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s far-fetched for a number of reasons: 1. It upsets the most influential voting demographics. I struggle to find any national policy implemented in the last few decades that has truly disrupted the kind of upper middle class voter that has a lot of money in a 401k. 2. If you tax 401ks higher than long term capital gains tax then higher earners just won’t use 401ks/IRAs. 3. 401ks and IRAs are completely detached fr…

> I struggle to find any national policy implemented in the last few decades that has truly disrupted the kind of upper middle class voter that has a lot of money in a 401k. Capping SALT deductions was a big one. For upper middle class folks in HCOL cities this is tens of thousands of dollars of additional taxes being paid. > If you tax 401ks higher than long term capital gains tax then higher earners just won’t use…

Yeah, the SALT cap is probably the most prominent example. Perhaps even the only example.

Maybe this idea is too much of a stretch, but something to point out with the SALT cap change is that it’s arguably a partisan tax shift for middle class people who live in blue states with higher property values. The tax cut and jobs act was partisan legislation passed by one party with no support across the aisle.

Upper middle class people in red states with less valuable property still experienced an overall tax cut with the same law. I think this legislation was written with the intention of shifting the tax burden from the right to the left, and to make blue states look less attractive.

I’ve conversely seen tax advantaged accounts become more tax advantaged over time. For example, 529 accounts have gained more spend flexibility and the ability to transfer funds to beneficiary Roth IRAs. Dependent care FSA recently had a very significant contribution cap increase.

Still, I don’t disagree with the idea that we should expect our tax-advantaged accounts to eventually be less tax-advantaged, although I think it would be less abrasive for that to be accomplished by slowing down contribution limit increases compared to inflation, or by modifying the underlying tax brackets themselves.

Re: Newly retired couples may lose $16,900/year in Social Security in 2033

#59
Imagine my surprise when I realized just a few months ago that I was now old enough to apply for social security.

Younger, blue-collar-raised me thought I should hold out on applying for social security until I was 70 so as to get the largest monthly payout.

Older, hopefully-wiser me (who has since learned about investing) applied for social security immediately and will stash the disbursements into an index fund until I actually need them.

(I'm oversimplifying because there are other factors to consider, but generally, historic returns on the stock market suggest you'll have more by age 70 by investing he disbursements when you're 62 than social security would have paid out if you had waited until 70.)

(Wild to imagine a system that was put in place that requires the recipient to guess how long they think they're going to live and choose when to start payments. Some kind of personal prediction market of one…)

The wife was on board my starting at age 62 simply because of talk of social security solvency issues like the headline.

Re: Newly retired couples may lose $16,900/year in Social Security in 2033

#60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This isn’t what my financial advisor told me and I doubt many others would, either. Social Security is almost certainly going to exist in some form. The question is how much retirees will get from it and how that compares to the cost of living. Excessive cynicism is often dangerous because it converts the mundanely pleasant reality into an enthralling doom and gloom scenario. Of course, I’m not really saying that eve…

> the mundanely pleasant reality There are a shocking number of people who do not experience anything resembling a mundanely pleasant reality Those of us who do are extremely fortunate

I completely recognize that. However, a lot of the voices of discontent and cynicism are living very comfortable lives in America relative to others.

Even having access to a flushing toilet and consistent electrical service are luxuries.

The US social safety net is only embarrassing by the standards of 30 or so of the most wealthy nations. Medicaid, Medicare, and social security, even in a diminished state, are programs that a lot of people lack.

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