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The US grocery slowdown is real

bain.com

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Re: The US grocery slowdown is real

#11

Post by kennethologist »

qdotme wrote: post #8

Or.. is it a GLP-1 byproduct? These are powerful appetite suppressants.. in fact I'm curious if the mechanism of action of these peptides affects other impulse behavior, including impulse purchasing? We know that people buy more when they are hungry. They also buy more when the smells of food are in the store (the other benefit of rotisserie chicken).

"Early studies suggest that GLP-1s may be effective in treating opioid, alcohol and nicotine addiction. Researchers are examining whether the drugs can also help people who are addicted to gambling, sex and shopping, among other things."

https://med.stanford.edu/news/insights/2025/04/ozempic-addic...

Re: The US grocery slowdown is real

#12

Post by paleotrope »

qdotme wrote: post #8

Or.. is it a GLP-1 byproduct? These are powerful appetite suppressants.. in fact I'm curious if the mechanism of action of these peptides affects other impulse behavior, including impulse purchasing? We know that people buy more when they are hungry. They also buy more when the smells of food are in the store (the other benefit of rotisserie chicken).

12% of the adult population. I think it's a good theory.

Re: The US grocery slowdown is real

#14

Post by gustavus »

> Our analysis of NielsenIQ grocery data shows a trend in negative unit growth starting in mid-2025, masked by steady price increases. But since February 2026, units have stepped down sharply enough to pull sales lower across the US. Prices are still climbing 2% to 3% year over year,

Seems pretty straightforward. They increased their price to try and make up for losses, which in turn mean less people purchasing, which they responded to by increasing prices. A lovely little circle.

Maybe some economists should investigate how prices effects demand, could be groundbreaking.

Re: The US grocery slowdown is real

#15

Post by qdotme »

kennethologist wrote: post #11
qdotme wrote: post #8

Or.. is it a GLP-1 byproduct? These are powerful appetite suppressants.. in fact I'm curious if the mechanism of action of these peptides affects other impulse behavior, including impulse purchasing? We know that people buy more when they are hungry. They also buy more when the smells of food are in the store (the other benefit of rotisserie chicken).

"Early studies suggest that GLP-1s may be effective in treating opioid, alcohol and nicotine addiction. Researchers are examining whether the drugs can also help people who are addicted to gambling, sex and shopping, among other things." https://med.stanford.edu/news/insights/2025/04/ozempic-addic...

Yeah - powerful confounder to all the analyses of customer behavior. Even the article itself calls it out - there probably is a good way to segment it, as GLP1 availability is not uniform, some states regulate it more tightly etc.

Re: The US grocery slowdown is real

#17

Post by fullshark »

qdotme wrote: post #8

Or.. is it a GLP-1 byproduct? These are powerful appetite suppressants.. in fact I'm curious if the mechanism of action of these peptides affects other impulse behavior, including impulse purchasing? We know that people buy more when they are hungry. They also buy more when the smells of food are in the store (the other benefit of rotisserie chicken).

The analysis mentions this, says it's a factor and links to:

https://www.bain.com/insights/weight-loss-drug-users-spend-l...

Re: The US grocery slowdown is real

#18

Post by anukin »

qdotme wrote: post #8

Or.. is it a GLP-1 byproduct? These are powerful appetite suppressants.. in fact I'm curious if the mechanism of action of these peptides affects other impulse behavior, including impulse purchasing? We know that people buy more when they are hungry. They also buy more when the smells of food are in the store (the other benefit of rotisserie chicken).

I am inclined towards thinking that it is probably this as there is also decline in fast food demand.

Re: The US grocery slowdown is real

#19

Post by nvme0n1p1 »

quantified wrote: post #7
Avicebron wrote: post #3

They should just lead with people don't have any money to buy things because wages aren't increasing to match living expenses. It cuts back some of the fig leaves

Probably cuts back on some of the epic waste on the consumer side. Hope that ripples to cutting down waste throughout the system. Paying for stuff that isn't consumed is by definition waste.

Consumers are the last group I would blame.

https://www.usda.gov/about-food/food-safety/food-loss-and-wa...

> food waste is estimated at ... 133 billion pounds ... in 2010.

USA population in 2010 was 311M. 133B / 311M = 427 pounds per person.

I sincerely doubt the average consumer throws away 427 pounds of fresh food in a year.

Re: The US grocery slowdown is real

#20

Post by qdotme »

fullshark wrote: post #17
qdotme wrote: post #8

Or.. is it a GLP-1 byproduct? These are powerful appetite suppressants.. in fact I'm curious if the mechanism of action of these peptides affects other impulse behavior, including impulse purchasing? We know that people buy more when they are hungry. They also buy more when the smells of food are in the store (the other benefit of rotisserie chicken).

The analysis mentions this, says it's a factor and links to: https://www.bain.com/insights/weight-loss-drug-users-spend-l...

It certainly does, I mentioned it in an comment below, good callout.

I am however also more interested in how this affects other types of consumer behavior - and whether that is a factor in pullback on the economy (on top of other factors - energy, job market, trade restrictions).

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