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Short sellers notch $8.7B profit as SpaceX shares dip to IPO price

reuters.com

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Re: Short sellers notch $8.7B profit as SpaceX shares dip to IPO price

#81

Post by onion2k »

jacobgold wrote: post #50

I completely understood the idea of Starlink and expected that it would be successful and useful, which it is. I've worked in data centers for decades now, and I am incredibly skeptical of the "data centers in space" sales pitch. It seems like an actual scam. Data centers submerged in the ocean or placed in the desert seem much more promising. But I have only an enthusiast's understanding of rockets and physics, so I…

Richard Campbell did a great talk at NDC a month about about this - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eo7MEPgWGic

Re: Short sellers notch $8.7B profit as SpaceX shares dip to IPO price

#82

Post by jackmott42 »

zugi wrote: post #76

SpaceX has accomplished spectacular things in reusable launch vehicles and space-based networking. It will soon restore the heavy launch capability that the US lost when it retired the Saturn V in the 1970s, but in an affordable and sustainable manner. SpaceX is almost single-handedly keeping the US ahead in space. I'm bullish on SpaceX as a company in terms of technical accomplishment. Buying SPCX would make sense a…

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Re: Short sellers notch $8.7B profit as SpaceX shares dip to IPO price

#83

Post by vlovich123 »

chris_money202 wrote: post #57
jacobgold wrote: post #50

I completely understood the idea of Starlink and expected that it would be successful and useful, which it is. I've worked in data centers for decades now, and I am incredibly skeptical of the "data centers in space" sales pitch. It seems like an actual scam. Data centers submerged in the ocean or placed in the desert seem much more promising. But I have only an enthusiast's understanding of rockets and physics, so I…

Repairability and depreciation are the main problems. A earth data center can be repaired, depreciated, and recycled at EoL recovering some of the costs. SpaceX datacenters are a total write off from the moment they are launched.

The Microsoft design of filling an airtight submersible structure with argon and dropping it to the bottom of the ocean floor is the alternative design - you’re not looking to do repairs but amortize the low cost of failures across the value you extract.

The biggest issue with space is not repairability but heat - when you’re in a vacuum the only way to disperse heat is through black body radiation and that’s horribly slow compared with normal mechanisms. It means you need giant physical structures whose sole job is to accept heat from the processing core and radiate it away and have so much more material that you can radiate it at the speed you generate. It’s a huge unsolved physics problem which is why everyone is skeptical.

Re: Short sellers notch $8.7B profit as SpaceX shares dip to IPO price

#84

Post by pphysch »

leptons wrote: post #80
jacobgold wrote: post #50

I completely understood the idea of Starlink and expected that it would be successful and useful, which it is. I've worked in data centers for decades now, and I am incredibly skeptical of the "data centers in space" sales pitch. It seems like an actual scam. Data centers submerged in the ocean or placed in the desert seem much more promising. But I have only an enthusiast's understanding of rockets and physics, so I…

The only way it makes sense is if you think the massive job losses due to AI will lead to people burning down datacenters on earth. An older spec'd and unmaintainable datacenter is worth way more than one in ashes.

Datacenters in Antarctica or deep ocean also fulfill that.

Re: Short sellers notch $8.7B profit as SpaceX shares dip to IPO price

#85

Post by dyauspitr »

vl wrote: post #30
dyauspitr wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can always hedge your shorts and limit your downside. It’s not a huge issue unless you have absolutely no idea what you are doing.

Does market closing and not trading continuously affects this? If market opens at significantly different price, you may be forced to liquidate and loose more than expected.

Hopefully you have a limit order in place. You can also do more complicated hedges with options which might cost a little bit more depending on the spread but you can guarantee your hedges.

Re: Short sellers notch $8.7B profit as SpaceX shares dip to IPO price

#86

Post by binyu »

compiler-guy wrote: post #78
binyu wrote: post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Someone who inherits a fortune and trades it on the stock market is an extremely unlikely circumstance.

But we aren’t talking probability. Your claim was that deeper pockets means you are more sophisticated. That simply isn’t true. The inheritance argument is just one example to show why it isn’t. People make large amounts of money all the time in one field or another, but that doesn’t make them sophisticated investors.

> Your claim was that deeper pockets means you are more sophisticated.

Completely wrong, my claim is that people who have deeper pockets they do so for a reason.

Re: Short sellers notch $8.7B profit as SpaceX shares dip to IPO price

#87

Post by olyjohn »

markasoftware wrote: post #72
onli wrote: post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No. It really is a scam. Everyone with understanding of the physics involved wrote so. Heat dissipation + radiation + launch cost make it a no-go.

Heat dissipation isn't as big a concern as it seems: the weight of the solar panels is significantly larger than that of the heatsinks you'd need per typical modern gpu

The cooling is not an issue for their current designs. Look at their AI1 Satellite specs. They clearly have the cooling figured out. The thing is that it's not a datacenter, it's a single rack. A single rack that weighs multiple tons.

You can figure out the weight of the thing based on the total power output, and "power to weight ratio" from SpaceX's own diagrams. Then look up how much it costs to launch per ton, and even look up what they are projecting it will cost with Starship. Even if they get costs down, it's still astronomical. I just can't figure out who would pay that much money to put a rack into space. There's no way the power savings are worth it. Unless you have some niche where you need your workload in space, I can't see the value at all.

Re: Short sellers notch $8.7B profit as SpaceX shares dip to IPO price

#88

Post by tqi »

chris_money202 wrote: post #57
jacobgold wrote: post #50

I completely understood the idea of Starlink and expected that it would be successful and useful, which it is. I've worked in data centers for decades now, and I am incredibly skeptical of the "data centers in space" sales pitch. It seems like an actual scam. Data centers submerged in the ocean or placed in the desert seem much more promising. But I have only an enthusiast's understanding of rockets and physics, so I…

Repairability and depreciation are the main problems. A earth data center can be repaired, depreciated, and recycled at EoL recovering some of the costs. SpaceX datacenters are a total write off from the moment they are launched.

Isn't the problem also that because of radiation, processors in space either need to have larger feature sizes OR additional shielding / redundancy? Seems like a pretty high price to pay for slightly cheaper energy...

Re: Short sellers notch $8.7B profit as SpaceX shares dip to IPO price

#89

Post by htlemur_bobby »

jacobgold wrote: post #50

I completely understood the idea of Starlink and expected that it would be successful and useful, which it is. I've worked in data centers for decades now, and I am incredibly skeptical of the "data centers in space" sales pitch. It seems like an actual scam. Data centers submerged in the ocean or placed in the desert seem much more promising. But I have only an enthusiast's understanding of rockets and physics, so I…

[dead]

Re: Short sellers notch $8.7B profit as SpaceX shares dip to IPO price

#90

Post by amanaplanacanal »

zugi wrote: post #76

SpaceX has accomplished spectacular things in reusable launch vehicles and space-based networking. It will soon restore the heavy launch capability that the US lost when it retired the Saturn V in the 1970s, but in an affordable and sustainable manner. SpaceX is almost single-handedly keeping the US ahead in space. I'm bullish on SpaceX as a company in terms of technical accomplishment. Buying SPCX would make sense a…

Yes but... All the "value" in SpaceX is in AI. Actual space launches are a tiny part of the portfolio. Talking about launch capability is almost off topic when taking about SpaceX valuation.
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