Tesla is another crazily overpriced stock but first my pointless take on spaceX.
(1) SpaceX has a huge number of restricted shares coming onto the market soon as this thread has discussed.
(2) SpaceX has incredible tech (reuse, internet, engines, scale, reliability), yet in the past week Japan demonstrated a rocket hovering and landing, and China launched a rocket to space and caught it/landed it. So SPCX tech is incredible, but China has basically done everything SpaceX has done except relaunch and launch reliably at scale.
Those aren't trivial things but I see within a couple of years there will be competitors doing what SpaceX has been doing. Matching the reliable launch will likely take longer. No one has anything like Starship and their fantastic engines, but that's not done yet. Let's not forget about upcoming space internet competitors. I put all this together and see they are crazily overvalued and still has potential to be do well too. I kept wanting to short it and short Tesla too, but Tesla has been stubbornly resisting me.
Tesla's PE is down to 357 at the moment. It has hovered around 400. Incredibly profitable and trustworthy (for non EVs) Toyota has a PE of 9.x. Nine! GM is 28, and Chinese companies are making the best EVs but more importantly have better battery and drivetrain tech in the field and faster charging. They are blocked from the US but apparently Canada will now allow them. Tesla doesn't have anything over them, including price. Tesla makes great cars, Musk is awful. I have an over 10 year old tesla and it is still a great car.
Tesla's future worth is because of meme stockness, optimus robots (which they still have been demoing with human remote control misleadingly), battery storage, xAI (eventually they'll do something worthwhile, right, more than illegal removing the clothes off people videos? at least they are making something off selling their extra inference capacity), and robotaxis.
robotaxi tech would cool if it worked, every few months Musk embarasses himself by announcing it's going nationwide by the end of the year or something similar that never happens. But is this going to make billions? Doubtful, and Waymo will be there to drive it down to not be that profitable. And waymo actually does 500k rides per week in 10 cities. Does tesla do 500 a week yet?
So Tesla is overvalued, and also, a miracle could occur and they could come up with software to make the robot do something useful - they are still overvalued even with that. They just don't have that great robot brain. Maybe LLMs will solve that eventually.
But tesla is at 350 PE, they need a reduction of about 15 times in stock price to get to a reasonable PE of 23. Their sales went up last quarter but they were behind their all time high sales and Musk destroyed their reputation. Let's say tesla is only 10x overpriced based on PE. So they should lose 90% of their stock price!? It's a meme stock but it should go down.