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The state of open source AI

stateofopensource.ai

171–180 of 379 posts

Re: The state of open source AI

#171
post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Open models are probably also comparatively astronomically expensive to train - just less so than the frontier models because they’re somewhat smaller, +/- the creators are more incentivised to focus on getting more from less compute because they’re have to, +/- they rely on distillation of the frontier models and this is more efficient. But efficiencies aside; creation of open models still requires a lot of money an…

I don't think it needs to be framed purely as generosity. You just need a sufficiently self-interested actor that sees open ecosystems as a necessary part of reducing their own risk profile, relative to the alternative of complete reliance of a third-party business that can take an exorbitant cut and/or Sherlock them at any time. Valve and SteamOS are a good example of what this idea looks like in practice. (Though t…

> You just need a sufficiently self-interested actor that sees open ecosystems as a necessary part of reducing their own risk profile, relative to the alternative of complete reliance of a third-party business that can take an exorbitant cut and/or Sherlock them at any time.

This would be an argument for an organisation developing its own model; but not per se for releasing the weights openly.

The possible explanations (I'm aware of, which overlap somewhat) for spending large amounts of money on models then releasing them for free (i.e. the current Chinese approach) are soft power, marketing for a future paid model business (i.e. competing with the US models for customers and mindshare during the time you can't compete directly at the bleeding edge), and/or a geopolitical move to diminish the value of the US's frontier model companies.

Re: The state of open source AI

#172

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Meta is selling their now excess compute, other compute has been on the market for a while. The current hardware cost bubble is temporary, especially once people are forced to pay the real inference price instead of majorly subsidized subscriptions.

yep, all those coders paying $200-$500 per day to use claude once subsidy ends will be seriously rethinking how much they really want to vibe-code "rewriting X in rust". Helping people write word docs, recipes, and emails isn't going to justify $15K per month subscriptions either.

> Helping people write word docs, recipes, and emails isn't going to justify $15K per month subscriptions either.

Those things can all be done today on a $250 used video card and pennies of electricity

Re: The state of open source AI

#173
post #159
post #37

It sure is nice to see that Mozilla is still doing all that they can to keep on top of current trends, except developing a decent privacy-focused web browser for developers and power users.

They get paid half a billion a year to do exactly what they have been doing and keeping FF at <5% of market share on desktop and 0% on mobile.

I’ve been using Firefox on mobile (and desktop) for years. I still don’t understand all the hate thrown at them. Whatever the downsides/ shortcomings people see, they are irrelevant to me, because I hate Google more & refuse to give them my data. They are good browsers & work just a well as Chrome 99.9% of the time for me

Re: The state of open source AI

#174

Exactly 4 months ago, the marketshare on openrouter was 60%-40% in favor of closed models. Now it's 63%-37% in favor of open models. On March 19th, the open models processed 888B tokens in aggregate, yesterday, they processed 4.19T tokens in aggregate. That's almost 5x in 4 months! I can't think of the right intensifier to describe this level of growth. If you are looking for more details (as inferred by openrouter d…

Correct me if I'm wrong, but OpenRouter doesn't tell the whole story.

If I'm using OpenAI, Anthropic, or Google models, I'm probably using their API directly, so OpenRouter won't have those stats to compare to.

All that said, it is very exciting to see open model usage grow via OpenRouter.

Re: The state of open source AI

#175

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The company was VC-funded as a search engine but by the time they made significant investments in AI (DeepMind etc) they'd been a publicly held company earning multiple billions a year from advertising for a decade.

Google is a VC. Their side projects are VC projects.

Google bought DeepMind and their other major AI acquisitions. Public companies make corporate venture investments for very different reasons than LP-backed VCs. They do early-stage investments to search for emerging players they can buy as soon as possible or to gain market intelligence on trends. They do later stage investments to help grow future vendors or customers and sometimes to foster ecosystems that form their competitive moat.

But if they think it's important to their core business, corporations don't want to invest, they want to buy. Source: I used to be involved in corporate venture investing at a top 10 valley tech leader.

Re: The state of open source AI

#176
post #105
post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Grok has the biggest advantage in current events knowledge because it's integrated with X, which enough people still use even though it isn't Twitter.

Hm, when compared to all the information people with android devices share with google, or those with gmail, ..

Google wouldn't give Gemini direct access to everyone's Gmail. It would carry far too much risk of being exposed. X can, because tweets are public.

Re: The state of open source AI

#177

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There will be plenty of model providers with prices that undercut Anthropic/OpenAI's prices.

Doubtful for the same reasons. The frontier providers are working at a hardware scale that will make it impractical to undercut them. I wouldn't rule out the possibility completely, but it won't be very common.

They also have to pay for staff / model training. Those are not cheap.

Re: The state of open source AI

#178

Speculation: open models is what will kill Anthropic and OpenAI. Hyperscalers can run the models without a licensing fee. Apple can make them smaller and put them on the device. The frontier models are an edge and a liability. They're astronomically expensive to train. Without them, their models will fade into obscurity. Their marketing depends on people believing the models are meaningfully different, as people have…

The outcome is plausible. Open weights models though look like a tactical more than a principled play by Chinese companies to overcome the disadvantage and difficulties to access western markets. Two issues: 1. If market conditions change they might decide to close down like Meta did. 2. If as you said models keep getting more expensive to train, is an open weights strategy financially sustainable? edit: typo

That's probably pretty likely, but if we're honest, are LLMs built and funded by a hostile Chinese authoritarian regime any more dangerous or harmful than LLMs built and funded by a hostile American authoritarian regime?

China absolutely does not have my best interests at heart, but America's technofascism is probably more immediately dangerous and harmful. Americans genuinely have more to fear from America than China at this point.

Re: The state of open source AI

#179
post #37

It sure is nice to see that Mozilla is still doing all that they can to keep on top of current trends, except developing a decent privacy-focused web browser for developers and power users.

This used to be my attitude, but I do feel like Firefox has made good ground in 2026.

I've also become sympathetic to their AI strategy. They don't seem delusional in their approach. They're not building models or selling slop, they're building OSS compatibility layers.

I don't want to see a world of vertically locked AI, so if Mozilla truly can dust off the old playbook for OSS AI, we'll all be better off for it.

Re: The state of open source AI

#180

Speculation: open models is what will kill Anthropic and OpenAI. Hyperscalers can run the models without a licensing fee. Apple can make them smaller and put them on the device. The frontier models are an edge and a liability. They're astronomically expensive to train. Without them, their models will fade into obscurity. Their marketing depends on people believing the models are meaningfully different, as people have…

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