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The state of open source AI

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101–110 of 379 posts

Re: The state of open source AI

#101

Post by braiamp »

babblingfish wrote: post #6

Speculation: open models is what will kill Anthropic and OpenAI. Hyperscalers can run the models without a licensing fee. Apple can make them smaller and put them on the device. The frontier models are an edge and a liability. They're astronomically expensive to train. Without them, their models will fade into obscurity. Their marketing depends on people believing the models are meaningfully different, as people have…

The real moat aren't the models, but the tooling around the models that allow them to perform specific tasks/goals. That's what really sets apart frontier vs open. Open only has the model itself, closed have the tooling to enhance the model.

Re: The state of open source AI

#102

Post by connicpu »

demosthanos wrote: post #48
mft_ wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Open models are probably also comparatively astronomically expensive to train - just less so than the frontier models because they’re somewhat smaller, +/- the creators are more incentivised to focus on getting more from less compute because they’re have to, +/- they rely on distillation of the frontier models and this is more efficient. But efficiencies aside; creation of open models still requires a lot of money an…

Yes, the problem with comparing open models to open source is that open source requires humans to volunteer their time. Open models requires humans to volunteer their money. These two types of contributions have very different behavioral profiles, and it doesn't obviously follow that the historical success of getting people to collaborate socially on building software for fun and for the benefit of the community will…

Technically open source requires some amount of monetary volunteering, it's just that the electricity to run a code editor and compile (most) open source code bases is within hobby budget for most people.

Re: The state of open source AI

#103

Post by ComputerGuru »

babblingfish wrote: post #6

Speculation: open models is what will kill Anthropic and OpenAI. Hyperscalers can run the models without a licensing fee. Apple can make them smaller and put them on the device. The frontier models are an edge and a liability. They're astronomically expensive to train. Without them, their models will fade into obscurity. Their marketing depends on people believing the models are meaningfully different, as people have…

> Apple can make them smaller and put them on the device

Someone can, but Apple has essentially admitted defeat and handed the reigns over to Google.

Re: The state of open source AI

#104

Post by mrcwinn »

Seems quite odd to use OpenRouter as “proof” that open weights models won. If you’re using OpenRouter, you’re already looking to bypass frontier models. To suggest there’s no longer a tradeoff simply isn’t true. But this isn’t the first time I thought Mozilla was a less than trustworthy source of information.

Re: The state of open source AI

#105

Post by lukan »

inigyou wrote: post #84
sublinear wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I still strongly believe Google Gemini has the best position for one simple reason: model maintenance. Accurate information is a moving target. Open models are indeed very capable, but they will eventually become more specialized to the application to keep an edge. It makes perfect sense that the future shape of AI conforms to the landscape it was born out of.

Grok has the biggest advantage in current events knowledge because it's integrated with X, which enough people still use even though it isn't Twitter.

Hm, when compared to all the information people with android devices share with google, or those with gmail, ..

Re: The state of open source AI

#106

Post by wilkystyle »

ComputerGuru wrote: post #103
babblingfish wrote: post #6

Speculation: open models is what will kill Anthropic and OpenAI. Hyperscalers can run the models without a licensing fee. Apple can make them smaller and put them on the device. The frontier models are an edge and a liability. They're astronomically expensive to train. Without them, their models will fade into obscurity. Their marketing depends on people believing the models are meaningfully different, as people have…

> Apple can make them smaller and put them on the device Someone can, but Apple has essentially admitted defeat and handed the reigns over to Google.

Have they?

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2026/07/14/apple-prismml-ai-compres...

Re: The state of open source AI

#107

Post by ButlerianJihad »

ComputerGuru wrote: post #103
babblingfish wrote: post #6

Speculation: open models is what will kill Anthropic and OpenAI. Hyperscalers can run the models without a licensing fee. Apple can make them smaller and put them on the device. The frontier models are an edge and a liability. They're astronomically expensive to train. Without them, their models will fade into obscurity. Their marketing depends on people believing the models are meaningfully different, as people have…

> Apple can make them smaller and put them on the device Someone can, but Apple has essentially admitted defeat and handed the reigns over to Google.

> handed the reigns over

Oh man, they gave them free reign?

How will anyone reign them in now?

For all intensive porpoises, this is like Babe Ruth, chomping at the bat!

Re: The state of open source AI

#108

Post by nacs »

elorant wrote: post #75
babblingfish wrote: post #6

Speculation: open models is what will kill Anthropic and OpenAI. Hyperscalers can run the models without a licensing fee. Apple can make them smaller and put them on the device. The frontier models are an edge and a liability. They're astronomically expensive to train. Without them, their models will fade into obscurity. Their marketing depends on people believing the models are meaningfully different, as people have…

Eventually they will kill the hyperscalers too because of privacy issues. It's better for a company to pay an uprfont cost and then run everything on premise that uploading their entire codebase to a third party service.

The vast majority of companies are still putting most things in the cloud and will continue to do so and this far outnumbers the must-be-on-premise companies.

Sure there will be self-hosters but hosting AI models will always be more of a challenge than running scalable database on your own hardware and specialized hyperscalers will be here.

Re: The state of open source AI

#109

Post by gallerdude »

afavour wrote: post #82
gallerdude wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Android has market share, but Apple makes all of the money! I find it really funny when people attribute Apple’s success to “oh, the only reason they succeed is design and marketing.” Yeah, I mean factually speaking design and marketing actually do matter a lot! Us developer types like to pretend like specs are the only thing that matters? If you could have a 10x more powerful model you could only access running loca…

> Android has market share, but Apple makes all of the money! So? The benefit of open source is that you don’t have to worry about making a ton of money. You just need to be viable. Apple: premium product a minority is willing to pay for Android: standard product the majority use I’m sure there will continue to be iPhone equivalents in the AI world, premium bespoke models. But the vast majority of people will be happ…

The original comment was “open models are what kill OpenAI and Anthropic”, which to me is as silly as saying “Android is what killed Apple”

Re: The state of open source AI

#110

Post by slopinthebag »

GodelNumbering wrote: post #45

Exactly 4 months ago, the marketshare on openrouter was 60%-40% in favor of closed models. Now it's 63%-37% in favor of open models. On March 19th, the open models processed 888B tokens in aggregate, yesterday, they processed 4.19T tokens in aggregate. That's almost 5x in 4 months! I can't think of the right intensifier to describe this level of growth. If you are looking for more details (as inferred by openrouter d…

If we use the same logic as the AI boosters and just assume we're in exponential growth, that means in a year open models will be handling 523T tokens.
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