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SPCX is now Wall Street's most shorted new stock

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Re: SPCX is now Wall Street's most shorted new stock

#71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Typically this would be prohibited (at least as an employee)

Sorta, there are no SEC requirements for lockup. It is all depends on the agreement between the IPO company and the IPO underwriters syndicate. Spotify and Slack notably skipped lockup entirely. Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, BoA, ect are the ones who set the IPO lockup terms based on their risk and exposure post IPO. Indexes, exchanges, underwriters, ect are all private institutions who mostly can and do set their o…

The terms are public so you can read them

Something like 20% can be sold after the q2 results are released

Re: SPCX is now Wall Street's most shorted new stock

#73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But the act of selling (and shorting) puts downward pressure on the stock. Those buyers are buyers at a lower price, not a higher one (like you would find in a stock with lots of buyers). That's why saying "most shorted stock" is saying something and "every seller has a buyer" is not.

Yes, stocks go up and down; hardly revelatory. The point, regardless of the imprecise wording of my alternate title, remains. There are people who think they are getting a valuable investment, at the price short-sellers are willing to sell at. There's just as much optimism as pessimism about the stock, at that price. And that's my complaint about the title, it wants to only highlight one side of the trade -- for narr…

>There's just as much optimism as pessimism about the stock, at that price.

No, there isn't, because the price breaks in the direction that there is more optimism or pessimism. When the pessimists run out of optimists at $135/share, they start digging for them at $134/share. The price ran out of optimists and had to move down to find more. Otherwise the price would lock at a single point.

And abundance of pessimists indicates that a lot of "downward digging" is taking place, it's very relevant.

You're hyper focusing on the tree here and missing the forest.

Re: SPCX is now Wall Street's most shorted new stock

#75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, stocks go up and down; hardly revelatory. The point, regardless of the imprecise wording of my alternate title, remains. There are people who think they are getting a valuable investment, at the price short-sellers are willing to sell at. There's just as much optimism as pessimism about the stock, at that price. And that's my complaint about the title, it wants to only highlight one side of the trade -- for narr…

>There's just as much optimism as pessimism about the stock, at that price. No, there isn't, because the price breaks in the direction that there is more optimism or pessimism. When the pessimists run out of optimists at $135/share, they start digging for them at $134/share. The price ran out of optimists and had to move down to find more. Otherwise the price would lock at a single point. And abundance of pessimists…

People respond to market forces. When they see that there are other people making irrational valuations, they may wait to buy even lower. It's not a judgment about the intrinsic value of the stock at the current price, but of opportunities in the market.

It's still a hard fact that for every single trade, there is someone as fully optimistic, to perfectly match the pessimistic side. And people have to be pretty committed to a narrative to deny that fact.

Re: SPCX is now Wall Street's most shorted new stock

#76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It was a Nazi salute.

[flagged]

It was a Nazi salute. You can't spin this, so stop trying.

https://i.imgur.com/MF2aEM3.gif[/

https://preview.redd.it/1jwoo9q7goee1.gif?width=410&format=m...

Re: SPCX is now Wall Street's most shorted new stock

#77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

Under this analysis, what was the short term motive? How does that pay off?

Ingratiating himself with Trump, I imagine. It certainly paid off in the short term, since he was given a golden ticket to sack the government.

A lot of tech execs successfully brown-nosed Trump, which (unfortunately) is understandable to some extent given what was at stake with his tariffs and other assorted threats. But Musk is the only one who evidently enjoyed it.

Re: SPCX is now Wall Street's most shorted new stock

#78
post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sorta, there are no SEC requirements for lockup. It is all depends on the agreement between the IPO company and the IPO underwriters syndicate. Spotify and Slack notably skipped lockup entirely. Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, BoA, ect are the ones who set the IPO lockup terms based on their risk and exposure post IPO. Indexes, exchanges, underwriters, ect are all private institutions who mostly can and do set their o…

The terms are public so you can read them Something like 20% can be sold after the q2 results are released

I am fully aware of the terms. There are lots of schedules. I was speaking to the origins of "prohibitions".

It is also worth noting that typical lockup contracts can be waived early at the sole discretion of the underwriters.

Re: SPCX is now Wall Street's most shorted new stock

#79
post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

I personally think he really is a fascist, but I still don't think he was deliberately throwing out a Nazi salute. Just naive about waving to a crowd in front of a camera, which is very on-brand for him.

See the .gifs I posted below. There is no way to spin that as naivete.

Re: SPCX is now Wall Street's most shorted new stock

#80
post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, people expect it to trade much lower, around $40 per share, still would be a huge valuation for what the company has done. Goldman Sachs analysts had an extreme range, of like $6 Billion to $5T, but the consensus $2T required 100x revenue multiple by 2030. If revenue was less than 10x by 2030 it's less than $100B company, and only $6B if it remains flat. So a lot of downsides and the upside requires a continuati…

I haven't seen anything saying $40. The lowest I have seen is $70.

Verizon + AT&T + Boeing was my estimate for SpaceX value.
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