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SPCX is now Wall Street's most shorted new stock

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Re: SPCX is now Wall Street's most shorted new stock

#21

Every single shorted stock, was purchased by someone else who is taking the long side of the trade. So there's as many people betting the stock will go up. This says more about volatility and volume of trading, than anything else.

Given the continued downward trend, it may be the buyers may just be disagreeing on how fast it drops, not necessarily taking a long term buy and hold position. I don't know much about option pricing, but aren't put options basically betting on the spread?

Re: SPCX is now Wall Street's most shorted new stock

#22

Hasn't the stock already collapsed below IPO price? Does that mean the IPO was simply overpriced? Do these people expect the stock to go down even further? Shorting is way more risky I don't see why this would be the case unless my questions turned out to be predictions.

JPM still thinks its a $300 stock

It is... as long as somebody else thinks so.

Re: SPCX is now Wall Street's most shorted new stock

#23
post #11

In a few weeks the pre-ipo share owners can offload the first batch of their shares (after q2 results release) So guessing non investors in SpaceX are shorting for this event in expectation of a drop

Typically this would be prohibited (at least as an employee)

Re: SPCX is now Wall Street's most shorted new stock

#25

Hasn't the stock already collapsed below IPO price? Does that mean the IPO was simply overpriced? Do these people expect the stock to go down even further? Shorting is way more risky I don't see why this would be the case unless my questions turned out to be predictions.

I wouldn't say that it collapsed, it's only slightly under its IPO price, $134 vs. $135.

However it's not going up and later this month the first lockup period ends and people who got stock options are allowed to sell some of their stocks. These people don't care if the price is $134 or $135, because they go in much much lower, down to $30, from what I can tell. So starting this month there's going to be new shares available to buy, and the sellers are less critical of the price your offering.

Re: SPCX is now Wall Street's most shorted new stock

#27

Every single shorted stock, was purchased by someone else who is taking the long side of the trade. So there's as many people betting the stock will go up. This says more about volatility and volume of trading, than anything else.

This isn't saying anything, anyone selling a stock is selling to someone going long.

Re: SPCX is now Wall Street's most shorted new stock

#28

Every single shorted stock, was purchased by someone else who is taking the long side of the trade. So there's as many people betting the stock will go up. This says more about volatility and volume of trading, than anything else.

That is true for the stocks but not options. Anyone with a brokerage account can write some calls and if they get exercised it’s up to them to find the stock to buy. Most pricing models assume the liquidity is always available but that’s not necessarily the case.

Re: SPCX is now Wall Street's most shorted new stock

#29

Every single shorted stock, was purchased by someone else who is taking the long side of the trade. So there's as many people betting the stock will go up. This says more about volatility and volume of trading, than anything else.

Given the continued downward trend, it may be the buyers may just be disagreeing on how fast it drops, not necessarily taking a long term buy and hold position. I don't know much about option pricing, but aren't put options basically betting on the spread?

Regardless, you can't short anything without someone taking the opposite position. It's really independent of the overall downward trend.

Re: SPCX is now Wall Street's most shorted new stock

#30
post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, people expect it to trade much lower, around $40 per share, still would be a huge valuation for what the company has done. Goldman Sachs analysts had an extreme range, of like $6 Billion to $5T, but the consensus $2T required 100x revenue multiple by 2030. If revenue was less than 10x by 2030 it's less than $100B company, and only $6B if it remains flat. So a lot of downsides and the upside requires a continuati…

> Goldman Sachs analysts had an extreme range, of like $6 Billion to $5T What a weird way for them to say "we don't know"! It's like saying this house has 0 to 100 bathrooms.

True, but it's the range from different analysts. Saying "we don't know" isn't really an option. Gotta say something when your IPOing a trillion dollar company.
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