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A Beautiful Theory Falls to Ugly Data

marginalrevolution.com

41–50 of 73 posts

Re: A Beautiful Theory Falls to Ugly Data

#41
It seems stupid to model books as a durable good. Reading this summer’s bestseller next summer sounds at its face like you should gain the same utility. But that is clearly not the case for the population buying books after a bit of thinking.

Also books without copyright are obviously cheaper beyond pricing than those with copyright. There is a rights holder there somewhere making a cut.

Re: A Beautiful Theory Falls to Ugly Data

#42
post #2

I had to look up “MC” to be able to understand this. It means Marginal Cost. EDIT I still don’t understand it, I think. My read is: someone named Coase theorized that monopolists of durable goods will actually sell their products at marginal cost because of some weird mind game with their customers (the obvious unwritten corollary being that monopolies are fine ). This is obviously untrue and we all know plenty of ex…

My read was that MC = "market clearing price" not "marginal cost".

Being a bit more humble, perhaps the lesson is that the difference between the theory and reality highlights externalities that always exist in the real world that make the theoretical model miss a crucial piece of the real world. It's logically correct in some sense, but incomplete.

Re: A Beautiful Theory Falls to Ugly Data

#43
post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Some aspects of the conjecture make sense and are observable: Consider e.g. Steam (digital video games): Prices are discounted over time because of "greed" (=> desire to sell the same product to customers that value it less than the first wave). Customers do adapt to this, and expect future discounts (sales) at release date already, and defer their purchase accordingly (despite valueing it higher!). But in reality, c…

I think the biggest (and, in my opinion, obvious) problem with this argument is that it relies on time having no value in the eyes of the consumer (or, equivalently, that the seller believes this to be the case). A consumer 5 years after a game's release may only purchase said game at marginal cost, but the consumer 1 day after release is willing to pay a premium to receive the product. There really doesn't seem to b…

Yes, especially for a durable good like a video game, having it now means having it now AND also having it later. It strictly dominates having it later, so I would be willing to pay more. Plus, there's utility in synchronizing with my friend group so we can play through together at the same time, discuss it without spoilers, play multiplayer while our skill levels are similar, etc. And that purchase timing will typically be set by the eagerest friend, rather than the stingiest.

So yeah. I do wait for deals sometimes but it would be silly to say that these two things have the same value in the eye of the consumer.

Re: A Beautiful Theory Falls to Ugly Data

#44
post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not really. Game Theory (in this iteration at least) is about identifying equilibria, not about the process of reaching them. This is one of several "deviations" of Game Theory from "reality". The fact that equilibria are fixed-points and can be explained in some sort of bargaining process doesn't really mean that's how we should actually imagine them. If we do so, we both overstate the theory (claiming some sort of…

But the point of the conjecture is not that "some equilibrium price exists and can be reached". The whole point is that even monopolists will actually sell this type of good directly at the marginal cost, at the fix point. That is the whole prediction; and/or that no one would buy if they did otherwise.

The monopolist would probably not even make the good in the first place if they knew they'd have to sell it at the marginal cost, because they'd make zero profit and be underwater on all of their development costs.

Re: A Beautiful Theory Falls to Ugly Data

#45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the biggest (and, in my opinion, obvious) problem with this argument is that it relies on time having no value in the eyes of the consumer (or, equivalently, that the seller believes this to be the case). A consumer 5 years after a game's release may only purchase said game at marginal cost, but the consumer 1 day after release is willing to pay a premium to receive the product. There really doesn't seem to b…

Yes, especially for a durable good like a video game, having it now means having it now AND also having it later. It strictly dominates having it later, so I would be willing to pay more. Plus, there's utility in synchronizing with my friend group so we can play through together at the same time, discuss it without spoilers, play multiplayer while our skill levels are similar, etc. And that purchase timing will typic…

An example that came up in the article is medicine (or more precisely a medical patent), which also clearly has an extremely strong time value, particularly for lifesaving medicine.

Re: A Beautiful Theory Falls to Ugly Data

#46
I think E-Books are a bad test subject. Theoretically they are a durable good, but realistically the demand for a single public domain eBook is not a large market and easily satisficed.

If you look at real world examples like wheelbarrows (something like 80% of all wheelbarrows sold in the US come from one company) - sure they use a bunch of tricks to charge more for some customers - but the cheapest, basic wheelbarrow is being sold for something close to marginal cost.

Re: A Beautiful Theory Falls to Ugly Data

#47
post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Some aspects of the conjecture make sense and are observable: Consider e.g. Steam (digital video games): Prices are discounted over time because of "greed" (=> desire to sell the same product to customers that value it less than the first wave). Customers do adapt to this, and expect future discounts (sales) at release date already, and defer their purchase accordingly (despite valueing it higher!). But in reality, c…

I think the biggest (and, in my opinion, obvious) problem with this argument is that it relies on time having no value in the eyes of the consumer (or, equivalently, that the seller believes this to be the case). A consumer 5 years after a game's release may only purchase said game at marginal cost, but the consumer 1 day after release is willing to pay a premium to receive the product. There really doesn't seem to b…

Maybe that's what "durable" means in economic jargon? A good that does not (or only very slowly) lose value over time?

If that what it means, Steam would not apply, because games were by that definition very much not durable.

Re: A Beautiful Theory Falls to Ugly Data

#48
Coase’s math assumes that the intervals between price changes approach zero, but every state change (such as the ebook price updates) is an informational bit erasure or write event. In a real market there is a cost that is > 0 for any price change (landauer floor). One can not assume that there is "free" energy in the system to find the optimal price.

Anyone writing books (or a "firm in coses math) needs to persist, aka they need to keep things like consumers understanding of their quality and pricing. If they drop prices to nothing they have consumers learn that. Consumers that try to wait forever in an "idle" state make no purchases and are not part of the ecosystem. Only consumer that don't wait forever matter. aka if they are looking at your ebook and don't buy they will rapidly buy a different ebook because they cannot wait for infinite time. aka if you teach your customers to wait they wont actually wait for you, but will simply switch to something else.

This is a control-and-feedback problem. Coase Conjecture fails because it assumes that you can have a system that persists without a governor. The two real world explanations correspond to the two ways you can introduce a governor.

Re: A Beautiful Theory Falls to Ugly Data

#49
post #2

I had to look up “MC” to be able to understand this. It means Marginal Cost. EDIT I still don’t understand it, I think. My read is: someone named Coase theorized that monopolists of durable goods will actually sell their products at marginal cost because of some weird mind game with their customers (the obvious unwritten corollary being that monopolies are fine ). This is obviously untrue and we all know plenty of ex…

[deleted]

Re: A Beautiful Theory Falls to Ugly Data

#50

I think E-Books are a bad test subject. Theoretically they are a durable good, but realistically the demand for a single public domain eBook is not a large market and easily satisficed. If you look at real world examples like wheelbarrows (something like 80% of all wheelbarrows sold in the US come from one company) - sure they use a bunch of tricks to charge more for some customers - but the cheapest, basic wheelbarr…

But who has the monopoly on wheelbarrows?
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