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SpaceX stock erases all its gains and slides below IPO price in intraday trading

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Re: SpaceX stock erases all its gains and slides below IPO price in intraday trading

#211

Post by defmetrix »

panick21_ wrote: post #205
defmetrix wrote: post #84

Ive never understood why so many people seem to cheer for Elon's companies to fail.

I was a fan of early Elon. He had many problems but he was overall good. Then he turned full ultra right wing nationalist who engaged in science denial. Supported a president that is unquestionably racists and unquestionably fascists. And he made this clear by doing some Nazi salutes on top of that. Then he used that influence to sell a completely false idiotic story that cuts to discretionary spending could 'fix' th…

I hear what you are saying. There are many CEOs and companies that I also dont like. But I dont spend everyday checking their stock price and cheering for them to fail like they are my rival sports team. I just dont understand why many people are so glued to watching his companies, rooting for failure, and running to post on the internet as soon as something bad happens. I cant think of a similar situation.

Re: SpaceX stock erases all its gains and slides below IPO price in intraday trading

#212

Post by epistasis »

infecto wrote: post #100
epistasis wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm unclear why you don't think it's a scam, because "he is a great financial engineer" seems awfully close to admitting that and then the "platform vehicle for everything else coming through the pipeline" seems to be the clincher that it is indeed a scam. For example, he's talking about data centers in space as the "everything else coming through the pipeline" and space data centers are an obvious engineering boondo…

I think you're collapsing a few different concepts together. Calling something a scam implied intentional deception about the underlying business. I don't think that's the same as selling an extremely optimistic vision at a valuation I personally think is unjustifiable. Plenty of companies have traded at prices that assumed almost everythign would go right. Most of those expectations eventually proved wrong but that…

The space data centers are intentional deception.

Re: SpaceX stock erases all its gains and slides below IPO price in intraday trading

#213

Post by oblio »

gwerbin wrote: post #166
oblio wrote: post #116

Earlier quoted context omitted.

SpaceX has a float of 5%. So only 5% of SpaceX shares have been released to the public. Slowly, starting in August, employees and investors will be able to sell their shares, about 45% more until December 2026 and another 45% until July 2027. What do you think will happen to SpaceX share prices when roughly 18x the number of shares at IPO are released? From a company that only made $18bn in sales last year and lost $…

Aramark is a horrible company for comparison. Maybe the only thing they have in common with SpaceX is that they are publicly traded companies. I'm not saying that SpaceX is a good investment or that Musk isn't trying to run a scam on index investors. But we also shouldn't be surprised that the financials of an incompetent commercial food service provider are a little different from those of a spaceflight company / da…

LOL. I'm not American, I chose Aramark at random because... ... Aramark has the same revenue as SpaceX:

https://companiesmarketcap.com/largest-companies-by-revenue/...

You've just told me that "the financials of an incompetent commercial food service provider" are better than those of SpaceX.

Aramark is profitable and SpaceX is wildly unprofitable[1] :-)))

* * *

[1] Almost nothing SpaceX does points at SpaceX scaling to huge profitability. The rocket business is super capital intensive and losing money. And its biggest customer by far is Starlink. Starlink is profitable, but even so, if Starlink hiccups, SpaceX rocketry goes kaput. Oh, the second biggest customer is the US government, and you only need one hostile US administration for that business to go away. xAI is a 2-bit player in the AI space and it's losing money hand over fist.

Re: SpaceX stock erases all its gains and slides below IPO price in intraday trading

#214

Post by lorecore »

infecto wrote: post #206
lorecore wrote: post #188

Earlier quoted context omitted.

“Good at raising money” = scam. The valuation is based of fraudulent promises, just like Musk’s other scam, TSLA.

Definitely not and I think those types of opinions erode any rational discussion. It’s part of the problem with these discussions. There are extreme views that take a position that is not defendable but follow the hive mind for whatever side they are on. I like to think in shades of gray and I am somewhere in the middle. Tesla? Amazing product, crazy valuation. SpaceX, some of the underlying products are indeed very…

Musk literally said SpaceX would be worth more than all of planet earth. That’s fraud.

Re: SpaceX stock erases all its gains and slides below IPO price in intraday trading

#215

Post by Lerc »

nixon_why69 wrote: post #201
EgregiousCube wrote: post #194

Earlier quoted context omitted.

He did, by arguing that a company that is fast-tracked for index inclusion has an obligation to prevent its stock price from following common post-IPO price patterns; and using "the only company to do so" as an allusion to a false trend.

No, Musk did, by arguing for fast-track index inclusion. He wasn't saying "you all will eat shit on this deal", he was promising exceptional returns.

I don't follow that logic, why does wanting something sooner imply higher expectations of results?

Did musk explicitly claim he expected exceptional returns? I don't think I'd be surprised either way, but I'm not sure what he's actually said.

Re: SpaceX stock erases all its gains and slides below IPO price in intraday trading

#216

Post by ToValueFunfetti »

taeric wrote: post #143
tw04 wrote: post #138

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Really? Which other IPO involves a company acquiring a completely unrelated company just before IPO in order to bail the founder out of a bad investment? Can you name even one example in the last 50 years?

To be fair, I think they just meant the stock price shape post IPO. Jumped up, then fell back down. That said, I'm also not sure how accurate that is.

Yes, thank you. The news story here is that it slipped below IPO price during intraday trading. In a perfect world, IPO price should equal the fair value; in our world, there are random-walk price variances moment to moment; in synthesis, briefly dipping below IPO price (and not even at close/open!) is not evidence of any wrongdoing.

I was responding to the person pointing to this as confirmation of the long-running social-media-populist narrative surrounding this IPO. I consider that confirmation bias. I was not responding to the narrative itself, on which my only positions are: a prior against social media populism, a prior towards our financial institutions, a prior against trusting Musk, and a prior against trusting our current governance.

Re: SpaceX stock erases all its gains and slides below IPO price in intraday trading

#217

Post by infecto »

oblio wrote: post #210
infecto wrote: post #145

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I did not realize that is what we were discussing. Just because I don't like someone (I don't like musk) does not mean I will immediately jump to the harshest classification. I could never get behind the valuations, I don't generally like how he behaves but I also recognize that he historically has done a great job at financial engineering and serving as a hypeman, both can be true at the same time for me.

> I will immediately jump to the harshest classification. The first points are just facts. Not "harshest classifications".

Sorry if I did not make it clear enough. The original discussion was around SpaceX being a scam. That is what I was referring to. I have no disagreement on other points. As I continue to say both can be true.

Re: SpaceX stock erases all its gains and slides below IPO price in intraday trading

#218

Post by rtkwe »

ncallaway wrote: post #164
ToValueFunfetti wrote: post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is shaped like more-or-less every IPO I've seen. I think you have to wait for more of a collapse to claim dispositive evidence of a scam (or widen your claim to 'almost all IPOs are scams').

Many IPOs slide below their initial offering. Very few IPOs changed the rules to allow themselves to be incuded in significant indexes far faster than the rules previously allowed, and then slipped below their initial offering.

Yeah that plus wrapping the xAI dogshit debt inside SpaceX is where it gets really scummy. At least the S&P500 didn't (yet) succumb and lower their requirements and that's where most of my investment money is parked.

Re: SpaceX stock erases all its gains and slides below IPO price in intraday trading

#219

Post by panick21_ »

defmetrix wrote: post #211
panick21_ wrote: post #205

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I was a fan of early Elon. He had many problems but he was overall good. Then he turned full ultra right wing nationalist who engaged in science denial. Supported a president that is unquestionably racists and unquestionably fascists. And he made this clear by doing some Nazi salutes on top of that. Then he used that influence to sell a completely false idiotic story that cuts to discretionary spending could 'fix' th…

I hear what you are saying. There are many CEOs and companies that I also dont like. But I dont spend everyday checking their stock price and cheering for them to fail like they are my rival sports team. I just dont understand why many people are so glued to watching his companies, rooting for failure, and running to post on the internet as soon as something bad happens. I cant think of a similar situation.

SpaceX is not just any old company. Its a trillion $ company at the heart of one of the most contentious topic in the modern world, AI. And its not just relevant for Elon, its also about the general outlook for the economy and AI. Most people retirements are in index funds that Musk tried to manipulate, so the stock value coming down before any S&P inclusion is important for many on a personal level.

Also, the reality is, Elon made himself a massive public figure deliberately, he very publicly embraced one side of the culture war and make his opinion on every public constantly. He literally one of the most important people because he literally bought one of the largest media platforms and made sure it fully embraced right wing points of view.

You are complaining why Elon is in public debate and people are so interested. That's because politics is a public argument between different parties, and Elon has used all his influence to support one side of that. And that is the result.

And not just in the US, Elon tried to insert himself into politics of other nations, such as Britain or Germany as well. Making most of the western world angry.

Why are you surprised that he gets treated like a politician when he acting like a politician?

You can't be the CEO of total independent technocratic companies and at the same time be a public ultra-right wing facist supporter who endlessly engages in a public culture war. Specially if those companies are directly linked to him view voting shares that give him ultimate power.

Re: SpaceX stock erases all its gains and slides below IPO price in intraday trading

#220

Post by infecto »

lorecore wrote: post #214
infecto wrote: post #206

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Definitely not and I think those types of opinions erode any rational discussion. It’s part of the problem with these discussions. There are extreme views that take a position that is not defendable but follow the hive mind for whatever side they are on. I like to think in shades of gray and I am somewhere in the middle. Tesla? Amazing product, crazy valuation. SpaceX, some of the underlying products are indeed very…

Musk literally said SpaceX would be worth more than all of planet earth. That’s fraud.

You’re moving the goal post in your argument. First it’s being good at raising money is a scam. Now you are pointing out his incredibly foolish claims. No disagreement, it’s an absurd statement. I don’t know if it classifies as fraud.
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