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SpaceX stock erases all its gains and slides below IPO price in intraday trading

latimes.com

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Re: SpaceX stock erases all its gains and slides below IPO price in intraday trading

#111

Post by jerf »

abtinf wrote: post #103

I’m way out of my depth in suggesting this idea, so forgive me if I’m committing a conceptual “divide by zero” and it’s not even wrong: It seems like the SpaceX IPO really breaks the traditional notion of market cap. Market cap has an unstated assumption that most of a company’s stock could, in theory, be traded unencumbered. Thus shares * price gives a very rough view of the value of the company. Everyone understand…

Market cap has been that sort of fiction from the beginning. It's never been a terribly useful number. There's really no fixing it because the only way to "truly" value a company is to sell it, for real, on the open market. Anything else is just a guess. More or less educated, but a guess. SpaceX isn't creating this problem or making it particularly worse.

Re: SpaceX stock erases all its gains and slides below IPO price in intraday trading

#112

Post by toomuchtodo »

baxtr wrote: post #79
ornornor wrote: post #41

“Shocking nobody” I would add… This is an obvious Musk scam and anyone with financial knowledge called it as such ever since it’s been on the table. Why else lobby and change the NASDAQ listing rules for instance?

I warned people 2 months ago: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48368668

I was told I was giving poor advice explaining how to avoid exposure to the latest Musk grift. Unfortunate.

“It's easier to fool people than to convince them that they have been fooled.” —- Mark Twain

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48374430

(SpaceX shorts have made ~$4B in profits on paper so far, as of this comment)

Re: SpaceX stock erases all its gains and slides below IPO price in intraday trading

#113

Post by pedrocr »

abtinf wrote: post #103

I’m way out of my depth in suggesting this idea, so forgive me if I’m committing a conceptual “divide by zero” and it’s not even wrong: It seems like the SpaceX IPO really breaks the traditional notion of market cap. Market cap has an unstated assumption that most of a company’s stock could, in theory, be traded unencumbered. Thus shares * price gives a very rough view of the value of the company. Everyone understand…

What you are describing is what's called free float market cap and is generally what market indices use to weigh stocks. That way you're only trying to replicate the market of stocks that are actually available to trade. There's nothing new about SpaceX in that respect, plenty of companies have float much lower than their total.

Re: SpaceX stock erases all its gains and slides below IPO price in intraday trading

#115

Post by hylaride »

simonpure wrote: post #44

I always wonder why not more companies are using more creative approaches like Google's Dutch auction to set their IPO price. It seems direct listings gained some popularity but overall most companies seem to rely on the traditional underwriter model. According to [0] - > 22 companies went public on major exchanges using IPO auctions in the U.S. between 1999-2008, but there have been none since then, as of May 2025.…

The Dutch auction wasn't all that smooth, with Google having to adjust prices at the last minute. Most results show that it didn't really produce all that much of a benefit over a traditional IPO, where (the issuing company) at least gets a guaranteed minimum amount of money to raise. Pretty much the only alternative is a direct listing for companies that want to go public, but don't need to raise money. (Well, there's also SPACs, but that's a different beast).

Re: SpaceX stock erases all its gains and slides below IPO price in intraday trading

#116

Post by oblio »

ToValueFunfetti wrote: post #82
ornornor wrote: post #41

“Shocking nobody” I would add… This is an obvious Musk scam and anyone with financial knowledge called it as such ever since it’s been on the table. Why else lobby and change the NASDAQ listing rules for instance?

This is shaped like more-or-less every IPO I've seen. I think you have to wait for more of a collapse to claim dispositive evidence of a scam (or widen your claim to 'almost all IPOs are scams').

SpaceX has a float of 5%. So only 5% of SpaceX shares have been released to the public. Slowly, starting in August, employees and investors will be able to sell their shares, about 45% more until December 2026 and another 45% until July 2027.

What do you think will happen to SpaceX share prices when roughly 18x the number of shares at IPO are released?

From a company that only made $18bn in sales last year and lost $5bn. For reference, Aramark, a company basically nobody has heard of made as much money and even turned a $0.5bn profit.

SpaceX shouldn't be worth more than $30 in 1 year's time.

Of course, irrationality can be an extremely strong force, so let's see.

Re: SpaceX stock erases all its gains and slides below IPO price in intraday trading

#117

Post by indoordin0saur »

ornornor wrote: post #41

“Shocking nobody” I would add… This is an obvious Musk scam and anyone with financial knowledge called it as such ever since it’s been on the table. Why else lobby and change the NASDAQ listing rules for instance?

It's right at IPO price, which (thus far) means it was more or less priced correctly.

Re: SpaceX stock erases all its gains and slides below IPO price in intraday trading

#118

Post by novaRom »

mr_toad wrote: post #39
sigmoid10 wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The IPO featured less than 5% of shares as free float. So the investors are still in pretty deep with their hands tied until lock-up restrictions expire. The IPO was more of a quick, public financing round for their AI branch than an exit for SpaceX VCs.

As those lock-ups expire I only see the stock sliding further. Still, the very early investors will probably make bank, with the retail investors holding the bag. Many of those early investors would have invested in a rocket company, I doubt many of them were overjoyed to be saddled with all the debts from an AI company and Twitter.

Big shift will happen after their Q2, 20% of eligible shares release; directed-share (friends & family) participants may sell for the first time.

Q2 call is expected in a month or so? But they also state Aug 21 is 37% of shares will go public.

https://spcx.capital/spacex-stock-lockup-dates

Re: SpaceX stock erases all its gains and slides below IPO price in intraday trading

#119

Post by jmye »

fullshark wrote: post #62
ornornor wrote: post #41

“Shocking nobody” I would add… This is an obvious Musk scam and anyone with financial knowledge called it as such ever since it’s been on the table. Why else lobby and change the NASDAQ listing rules for instance?

And it worked. And whatever schemes he has in mind to have Space X merge with Tesla to increase market cap further will work too.

[dead]

Re: SpaceX stock erases all its gains and slides below IPO price in intraday trading

#120

Post by thinkingtoilet »

defmetrix wrote: post #84

Ive never understood why so many people seem to cheer for Elon's companies to fail.

Because he's a psychopath who is actively making the world worse. Anyone who stands on stage with a chain saw and cuts US AID with a smile on his face is a truly horrible person. Anyone who hoards a trillion dollars while others starve is a truly horrible person. Did you root for the Empire in Star Wars? I hope nothing but the worst for him so maybe someone with a conscious and a soul replaces him.
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