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SpaceX stock erases all its gains and slides below IPO price in intraday trading

latimes.com

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Re: SpaceX stock erases all its gains and slides below IPO price in intraday trading

#91

Post by aoshifo »

Octoth0rpe wrote: post #75
petilon wrote: post #70

SpaceX, despite its name is an AI company, supposedly. Its S-1 states that the company estimates its total addressable market (TAM) at $28.5 trillion, of which $26.5 trillion, or 92.98%, is expected to come from AI. SpaceX is an AI company without a frontier model. Until Jan 2026 SpaceX was an aerospace company. Then xAI was merged into SpaceX on January 30, 2026, so SpaceX became an AI company less than 6 months ago…

> SpaceX is an AI company without a frontier model. Unless they manage to build such a model, then their plan looks like they intend to be an AI _infrastructure_ company. Which is probably viable and healthy business! One with lots of competition and low margins that is completely misaligned with their current valuation.

It might be a viable business model, but does not warrant anywhere near these valuations.

Re: SpaceX stock erases all its gains and slides below IPO price in intraday trading

#92

Post by ahtihn »

colechristensen wrote: post #74
infecto wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don’t think scam is the right word. The valuation and bank price targets are absolutely insane. I myself could never invest at those multiples. I think they absolutely have governance problems but at the same time I have to admit he is a great financial engineer. Investors who do have conviction here most likely see this as the platform vehicle for everything else coming through the pipeline. Again I could not buy…

There's no room in the global economy to justify the kinds of numbers. Like spacex isn't going to be the world's first 100 trillion dollar company because there isn't that much money . That's nearly as high as the global GDP. Crazy growth rates are not possible.

> Like spacex isn't going to be the world's first 100 trillion dollar company because there isn't that much money.

That doesn't really matter. As we saw with crypto valuations, market cap is just number of shares * last price.

If you have 1 trillion shares and one is traded for $100 you have a 100 trillion market cap.

Re: SpaceX stock erases all its gains and slides below IPO price in intraday trading

#93

Post by jagged-chisel »

infecto wrote: post #60
ornornor wrote: post #41

“Shocking nobody” I would add… This is an obvious Musk scam and anyone with financial knowledge called it as such ever since it’s been on the table. Why else lobby and change the NASDAQ listing rules for instance?

I don’t think scam is the right word. The valuation and bank price targets are absolutely insane. I myself could never invest at those multiples. I think they absolutely have governance problems but at the same time I have to admit he is a great financial engineer. Investors who do have conviction here most likely see this as the platform vehicle for everything else coming through the pipeline. Again I could not buy…

> I don’t think scam is the right word. The valuation and bank price targets are absolutely insane.

I was hoping you were headed to "...beyond scam" into serious fraud or something. Regardless how this is categorized, everyone (banks, stock market, the executive branch) is complicit, and I think SpaceX stock should have stayed off the public market.

Re: SpaceX stock erases all its gains and slides below IPO price in intraday trading

#95

Post by marcosdumay »

jrk wrote: post #64
marcosdumay wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No one can care about fundamentals in QE times. If you stay out of the market just because nothing there is valuable, you will lose your money to the hidden inflation and won't be able to buy anything there when you want in. In normal inflation you can at least buy commodities. But the US economy is organized in a way that will concentrate the money on stocks, not commodities.

The Fed transitioned from QE to tightening almost 5 years ago.

I suggest you take a deeper look at what's happening.

The Fed announced they will transition away from QE yesterday. When they did that 5 years ago, a lot of things happened and they completely gave up on the idea.

Re: SpaceX stock erases all its gains and slides below IPO price in intraday trading

#96

Post by [deleted] »

chasd00 wrote: post #73
ornornor wrote: post #41

“Shocking nobody” I would add… This is an obvious Musk scam and anyone with financial knowledge called it as such ever since it’s been on the table. Why else lobby and change the NASDAQ listing rules for instance?

Not a scam IMO, I don’t think musk is that motivated by wealth but im sure plenty of the heavy hitter investors are. I’m sure he didn’t complain about the valuation however. I think SpaceX is a solid well run company (praise be to Gwen Shotwel) but $1T is a bit much. I’ll eventually buy in when things settle down and we have a few quarters of financial data to work with.

[deleted]

Re: SpaceX stock erases all its gains and slides below IPO price in intraday trading

#97

Post by LorenDB »

colechristensen wrote: post #74
infecto wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don’t think scam is the right word. The valuation and bank price targets are absolutely insane. I myself could never invest at those multiples. I think they absolutely have governance problems but at the same time I have to admit he is a great financial engineer. Investors who do have conviction here most likely see this as the platform vehicle for everything else coming through the pipeline. Again I could not buy…

There's no room in the global economy to justify the kinds of numbers. Like spacex isn't going to be the world's first 100 trillion dollar company because there isn't that much money . That's nearly as high as the global GDP. Crazy growth rates are not possible.

> there isn't that much money

It's almost as if SpaceX would have to use another planet's resources to generate money for that valuation. Oh wait...

Re: SpaceX stock erases all its gains and slides below IPO price in intraday trading

#99

Post by mullingitover »

petilon wrote: post #70

SpaceX, despite its name is an AI company, supposedly. Its S-1 states that the company estimates its total addressable market (TAM) at $28.5 trillion, of which $26.5 trillion, or 92.98%, is expected to come from AI. SpaceX is an AI company without a frontier model. Until Jan 2026 SpaceX was an aerospace company. Then xAI was merged into SpaceX on January 30, 2026, so SpaceX became an AI company less than 6 months ago…

> AI company, supposedly

Mainly it’s a REIT that bought a bunch of hardware which is now depreciating like fresh lettuce. They don’t even have a way to use it productively for AI purposes themselves and are instead renting it to competitors, who are using it to lap them.

Re: SpaceX stock erases all its gains and slides below IPO price in intraday trading

#100

Post by infecto »

epistasis wrote: post #76
infecto wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don’t think scam is the right word. The valuation and bank price targets are absolutely insane. I myself could never invest at those multiples. I think they absolutely have governance problems but at the same time I have to admit he is a great financial engineer. Investors who do have conviction here most likely see this as the platform vehicle for everything else coming through the pipeline. Again I could not buy…

I'm unclear why you don't think it's a scam, because "he is a great financial engineer" seems awfully close to admitting that and then the "platform vehicle for everything else coming through the pipeline" seems to be the clincher that it is indeed a scam. For example, he's talking about data centers in space as the "everything else coming through the pipeline" and space data centers are an obvious engineering boondo…

I think you're collapsing a few different concepts together. Calling something a scam implied intentional deception about the underlying business. I don't think that's the same as selling an extremely optimistic vision at a valuation I personally think is unjustifiable.

Plenty of companies have traded at prices that assumed almost everythign would go right. Most of those expectations eventually proved wrong but that doesn't retroactively make them scams.

If the argument is that space data centers or some of these future initiatives are technically unrealistic, then criticize those ideas on their merits. If they're impossible or economically irrational, the market will eventually price that in, even if it takes a long time horizon.

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