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SpaceX bond worth 10% less than issue price – heading for junk bond status

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Re: SpaceX bond worth 10% less than issue price – heading for junk bond status

#491
post #242

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're forgetting that whenever the incentives lead to bad places it isn't True Capitalism (tm).

True Capitalism looks a lot more like socialism than many would like to admit.

Corporations are the definition of socialism- everyone pools their efforts and they decide how to allocate the rewards (after taxes).

Re: SpaceX bond worth 10% less than issue price – heading for junk bond status

#493

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What does the relative level of government spending versus taxation have to do with whether businesses will self-regulate? You're just spewing non sequiturs here.

They said we live under true capitalism right now we I’m clearly showing we do not. Not to mentions the US is far from “self regulating” there are millions of words of regulation in the US.

No you didn't, all you did was complain about taxes and say that there exist regulations by counting the number words in them. Not all words are equal, not does it mean that they're effectively enforced. Looking at various monopolies like Ticketmaster or the UnitedHealth group and how they've been allowed to flourish it doesn't seem like America has anywhere near enough regulations to be considered true capitalism. If the market economy isn't a free market because a monopolist is exerting outsize control on the market, it's not a free market. That doesn't make it socialism though, that makes it crony-capitalism instead.

Re: SpaceX bond worth 10% less than issue price – heading for junk bond status

#494

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Then they should buy a broad-market fund. Like a Russell 1000 fund? Oh wait...

> Like a Russell 1000 fund? Yes. A fund that doesn’t choose what is and isn’t a good investment. Total market means total market. If you don’t like that, the S&P 500 is bigger than those for a reason.

Except Russell did change their rules in 2026. Yes, in theory to more closely represent the state of the market.

Re: SpaceX bond worth 10% less than issue price – heading for junk bond status

#495

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Consensus means there is general agreement, but those statements are highly disputed.

Maybe “dominant view” is a more accurate term? (On HN)

I don't think any of those could be fairly described as a dominant view in general.

Re: SpaceX bond worth 10% less than issue price – heading for junk bond status

#496

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, because the guy buying your bananas is able to make banana-buying decisions for next week based on the price you give him. You’re not going to make up a silly low number because you actually have to buy the bananas yourself at some point, and you help price discovery because now that guy isn’t buying bananas at a higher price than someone is willing to sell them for.

Just as a thought experiment, would you say there are any (societal) negatives to the possibility of thr price of bananas (or the share price of spacex) being able to fluctuate wildly based on semi-abstract economic manipulations, like shorts and futures and such. What I'm getting at is when does it go from investing, "I think this entity is going to take my money and use it to build a profitable factory that will th…

Well if the company is good, you can lose a lot of money taking short positions as a gamble.

Re: SpaceX bond worth 10% less than issue price – heading for junk bond status

#497

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Idk, I kinda agree with Matt Levine. The purpose of these ETFs is conceptually to track the "largest X companies", so including SPCX is just staying true to that. If there's an issue I think it's earlier in the IPO pipeline.

But if SpaceX valuation drops by 2/3 before settling into a steady state, does that not mean that SpaceX is not one of the "largest X companies" but rather was overvalued? The entire reason for these seasoning periods is to give the market time to determine what the company is actually worth to the market itself. Bypassing those rules to get it in earlier says to me that they don't believe it will settle at a price n…

Is your assertation that spaceX just valued themselves? If your lemonade stand gets underwritten by Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, Citigroup, and JPMorgan Chase, and 18 other large banks then yeah, you belong on that list.

Re: SpaceX bond worth 10% less than issue price – heading for junk bond status

#498
post #53

A stupid/naive question. Why does this affect SpaceX? They have their money(The IPO) Any third party trading value does not change that. Sure there may be individuals, officers of SpaceX who hold these instruments who will be negatively affective, but the company itself? My best guess, it makes it harder to get loans in the future.

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Re: SpaceX bond worth 10% less than issue price – heading for junk bond status

#499
post #415

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm old enough to remember they weren't just buying and selling corporate bonds like most of the bond market. They were a hedge fund that used massive leverage to exploit tiny arbitrage opportunities between correlated securities. There may be important factors that the bond market isn't aware of, just like most of them didn't know about the problems with mortgage-backed securities in 2008. But anything you and I are…

> But anything you and I are aware of, they probably are too. This is something that seems like it should be true but the subprime crisis (which didn't at all come out of the blue — anyone with any instinct at all should have understood when they first saw someone get given insane mortgages) argues against.

The subprime crisis was a story of perverse financial incentives causing the industry to play along with a fig-leaf statistical excuse for overrating derivative products, not bond raters botching ratings or missing "common-knowledge" info about specific mortgages.

If you want to suggest the subprime crisis as a mechanism for SpaceX bonds getting mispriced, you need to propose a model for how bond evaluators could be operating under a perverse incentive to under-rate it and somehow reap profits from doing so.

Re: SpaceX bond worth 10% less than issue price – heading for junk bond status

#500

Earlier quoted context omitted.

uh oh I think you lost the thread of metaphor there.

how embarrassing! Look, your joke was "If it's only 1.2%, hey, that's not that much, just give it to me for free!" We don't have to believe SPCX is worth whatever it's trading at today, but that 1.2% isn't simply being given away. Under capitalism, money is exchanged for goods and services.

FWIW, I read their joke differently: you were the one who said "only 1.2%", and they turned that on you by asking for you to part ways with "only 1.2%" of your net worth.

They are not questioning money exchange, they are questioning the "only" part, claiming this is significant.

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