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SpaceX bond worth 10% less than issue price – heading for junk bond status

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Re: SpaceX bond worth 10% less than issue price – heading for junk bond status

#271

Post by phil21 »

bix6 wrote: post #169
tavavex wrote: post #137

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So, the inclusion rules are basically "these are the hard limits that specify which stocks are eligible, unless someone really big and lucrative comes along, in which case it's whatever and we'll just adjust the rules to make them eligible"?

Isn’t that how capitalism works in general? Edit: thanks for the downvotes. Defenders of capitalism unite!!! lol. Free market right?

No. This is how crony-capitalism works.

You could make a decent argument that capitalism will very likely end-game devolve into crony-capitalism as it's typical failure mode, but I don't think it's written in stone.

It's funny to me. Everyone rails about Atlas Shrugged being some libertarian fantasy story. I always read it as an allegory warning about crony capitalism and how it ruins society along with a story about trains and magical perpetual motion machines.

Re: SpaceX bond worth 10% less than issue price – heading for junk bond status

#272

Post by aftbit »

chmorgan_ wrote: post #59

Is this a real concern? SpaceX is doing amazing in terms of business.

SpaceX-the-space-launch-business is doing amazing things, which is part of what makes it so sad that the financials and buzz is all for SpaceX-the-enterprise-AI-business.

Their S-1 projects $28 trillion TAM, with 93% of that attributed to AI, ~6% to connectivity via Starlink, and only ~1% for space launch capability.

Of their $20 billion CapEx spent in 2025, 60% was spent towards AI data-centers, 20% was spent towards Starlink satellites, and ~20% was spent towards actually building Starship and Falcon 9. That's gone up to nearly 80% towards AI in Q1 2026.

Of course, "AI" makes up only ~20% of their current revenues.

So... this company is priced as an AI startup but it's actually a satellite internet and space launch business.... or is it? Shame to see the coolest thing that Elon did be eaten by the AI monster.

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1181412/000162828026...

Re: SpaceX bond worth 10% less than issue price – heading for junk bond status

#273

Post by Octoth0rpe »

estearum wrote: post #237
soleveloper wrote: post #181

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> They may only have bought themselves 6 more months of time given their purported burn rate If they had only ~6 more months they (+auditor) had to issue a warning. The 6 is not a hard number, AFAIK, but surely a point where it must be reported. So honestly, I doubt it's the case.

At least as written, GP says bought them six more months of time. Not implying they had 0 months to begin with.

That was indeed my intent. Pre-IPO, SpaceX already had _some_ cash in hand, and was burning >4b per quarter IIRC; so presumably _some_ runway. That said, they also got the anthropic/openai monthly payments coming in soon (already started maybe?). The next earnings release will be the interesting one IMO.

Re: SpaceX bond worth 10% less than issue price – heading for junk bond status

#274

Post by mlinhares »

chasd00 wrote: post #131
formvoltron wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

nah the very worst thing about the spacex ipo is that schwab won't allow me to short it. has nothing to do with the recency of the issue. today i shorted some skhy when i realized it's trading about 30% over the Korean share price (I could be wrong about that)

> nah the very worst thing about the spacex ipo is that schwab won't allow me to short it. there are easier ways to make money than betting against Elon Musk. See Tesla and how well it worked out for short sellers there. I like SpaceX as a company (especially Starlink) but it's over valued in my opinion. In about a year when there's a little bit of public financial history and the dilution is over i'll probably buy i…

The illusion isn't over for Tesla, not a chance it will be over for SpaceX in a year.

Re: SpaceX bond worth 10% less than issue price – heading for junk bond status

#276

Post by earth-tattoo »

Can we have a separate anti-Trump, Elon, etc. section on hacker news? So I can separate this noise from the real news. I'm no pro Elon, but this stock went from 150 to 200, and there was no news on HN. Now it dipped from 150 to 136 and suddenly it's on HN front page. The headline should be: "Traders trading".

Re: SpaceX bond worth 10% less than issue price – heading for junk bond status

#277

Post by rurp »

runarberg wrote: post #113
formvoltron wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

nah the very worst thing about the spacex ipo is that schwab won't allow me to short it. has nothing to do with the recency of the issue. today i shorted some skhy when i realized it's trading about 30% over the Korean share price (I could be wrong about that)

I for one am glad that you were not allowed to short SpaceX. People gaming the market for their own profits are the worst kind of exploiters and swindlers. You contribute absolutely nothing while siphoning the profits that workers make, lowering the salaries of everyone that actually works for a living. Note this has nothing to do with my feelings about SpaceX. I am Elon hater nr. 1 and hope SpaceX burns to dust, I o…

What a weird misunderstanding. Shorting reduces fraud in the market, and making it harder to short increases it. There's a reason shady managers had shorts, it increases the chances their bad behavior will be uncovered and punished financially.

Re: SpaceX bond worth 10% less than issue price – heading for junk bond status

#279

Post by RealityVoid »

xutopia wrote: post #93
DustinBrett wrote: post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Every company you mentioned has made more progress in those spaces than anyone else, and they are all clear progress towards the goals discussed.

You're mistaken. Name 3 accomplishments he made and I'll show you world class work done elsewhere by other companies. The only thing he did which was notable was Starlink and I'll gladly grant you that. China is about to eat Starlink's lunch with their own tech. Again I think people overestimate Musk's contributions to the world.

Falcon rockets, starlink, Tesla. They all pushed the envelope in their field. Are the stocks overpriced? Yes. Did they do impressive technical work? Also yes. They might get surpassed by competitors, but that is to be expected for all companies. But they clearly did something special there. And I deff am no Musk fanboy, but you have to give him the credit for establishing those systems.

Re: SpaceX bond worth 10% less than issue price – heading for junk bond status

#280

Post by baggy_trough »

groundzeros2015 wrote: post #152
swingandamiss wrote: post #119

[flagged]

It certainly is a contrast from the Tesla years. But overall I think the current consensus is: - we don’t believe in startups (low quality scams) - we don’t believe in technology. (It’s surveillance and distraction). - we don’t believe in markets (regulate the RAM) - we don’t believe in agency (unruly rule breakers) And honestly we’ve seen a lot of events that strengthen those positions. Some of it is age as well. I’…

I can't identify one item on that list that I think would be fair to consider a consensus.
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