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IBM is on pace for its worst day ever

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Re: IBM is on pace for its worst day ever

#51

Post by trebligdivad »

rwmj wrote: post #2

The press release: https://newsroom.ibm.com/2026-07-14-Arvind-Krishnas-Letter-t... With the caveat that I work for IBM but have no inside knowledge about anything important, it doesn't seem very bad to me? Overall profit is going to be down a tiny amount below expectations.

The EPS was a lot lower than expectation though - and I thought that was the only reason people held IBM shares, they've not traditionally grown quickly but IBM has traditionally done anything it could to get a good EPS. The other more techy side is to think that a year or so ago when everyone was climbing on AI, people were buying stocks in lots of tech companies to ride that wave; some companies (Nvidia, Samsung, Micron etc) are making a fortune from it. IBM? It's got some things it can point to it's doing in AI but it's not the big beneficiary of this wave.

Re: IBM is on pace for its worst day ever

#52

Post by bix6 »

criddell wrote: post #26
bix6 wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If I read that as an IBM investor I might fully exit. The new product flopped, growth was 1%, and the CEO sounds extremely unconfident. There are way better places to put your money given the potential for future earnings now looks incredibly weak.

Where would you put your money? Everything in the US seems to have exposure to the AI bubble. Is Europe sitting out of the AI race? Maybe some euro etf?

I work in early stage venture so that’s my primary investment focus given the outsized potential. I do have a target date 401k and a professionally managed portfolio as well (broad across asset, sector, geography) but I don’t really focus on those.

Re: IBM is on pace for its worst day ever

#53

Post by bestouff »

Vaslo wrote: post #48
jleyank wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Left-leaning and major? No. Considering the countries that the US is compared to, there's not really a centre-leading major news source, either.

CNN is pretty far left and kind of major.

Wow ... CNN is definitively not left-leaning. It fully buys into the capitalist ideal. It's more like neoliberal. That's not what I had in mind when I said "left".

Re: IBM is on pace for its worst day ever

#54

Post by justaman123 »

Vaslo wrote: post #48
jleyank wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Left-leaning and major? No. Considering the countries that the US is compared to, there's not really a centre-leading major news source, either.

CNN is pretty far left and kind of major.

You only think this because the Overton window has shifted so far to the right that the center right CNN appears far left because of how far right the ruling party is.

Re: IBM is on pace for its worst day ever

#55

Post by xtiansimon »

thegrim33 wrote: post #40

Don't forget when it comes to things like this - if in this case IBM ever had an astoundingly good day, CNN would never write an article about it, and you'd never see it on HN. They choose the picture of reality to install in the reader's minds by selectively choosing what news to report on vs. what to ignore.

I don’t understand this comment—

“Don't forget when it comes to things like this…”

Financial news?

“…if in this case IBM ever had an astoundingly good day, CNN would never write an article about it, and you'd never see it on HN.”

You have a private idea about the way the world works, but you’re not sharing a hint of the editorial decisions you believe are in effect.

> “They choose the picture of reality to install in the reader's minds by selectively choosing what news to report on vs. what to ignore”

Failing to express your ideas of why the editorial choices are suspect, I venture to wonder on your concept of communication itself.

All writing is selective—choosing a subject and the interpretive community you are writing for.

Meanwhile, your comment is itself an unsubstantiated warning message to this community.

Hmm. Almost as if the accusation is a confession.

Re: IBM is on pace for its worst day ever

#56

Post by RickJWagner »

Retired Red Hatter here.

When IBM bought Red Hat in the late twenty teens, they offered us a 10% discount on the stock as an ESPP. At the going price, the stock already had a 5% dividend. It seemed like a great deal.

Our internal mailing list ( the late great Memo List ) had a lively discussion. The majority didn’t see the raging bargain ahead of them. Most seemed to like the safe path— buy the stock, then immediately sell it and invest the proceeds in an index fund. It’s not bad advice, but it deconcentrated your bet.

The index has had some fantastic years since. But I think IBM did even better. The stock went from low one hundreds to over 300 for a while. Even after this big drop, you’d still be far, far ahead. You still get the dividend, too.

In this case the only way to lose was to not play.

Re: IBM is on pace for its worst day ever

#57

Post by Glandalf »

andrewstuart wrote: post #35
Glandalf wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Awful advice usually given by red-faced bag holders, lol. Wait for the real bottom, buy it IF it starts to recover.

“Wait for the real bottom” is doing a lot of work. Tell you what, come back here in 24 hours and let’s touch base and we will see if you or I was right. IBM currently $217.76 down 24.97% my prediction it bounces back up within 24 hours.

It’s only bounced back 1.2%, nobody wants to buy your bags lol.

Re: IBM is on pace for its worst day ever

#58

Post by mathattack »

This shouldn’t surprise anyone who has dealt with IBM over the past 10-20 years.

1 - IBM audits your company’s software usage.

2 - They find a couple servers that someone forgot to turn off a decade ago that nobody uses.

3 - Since it was found in an audit “you’ll lose the 90% discount” and they present the CFO with a $20 million bill.

4 - “It pains us to have to enforce this MSA that your predecessors signed 20 years ago. In the spirit of partnership we can make this go away with a $2 million Watson purchase.”

5 - You get the Watson subscription which you don’t dare turn on.

6 - IBM touts the growth of AI to Wall Street [0] and fires a bunch of old people [1].

Of course this wasn’t going to end well.

[0] https://www.constellationr.com/insights/news/ibm-q4-better-e...

[1] https://www.publicjustice.net/federal-court-boston-ibm-age-d...

Re: IBM is on pace for its worst day ever

#59

Post by mathattack »

sunshine-o wrote: post #49
dzonga wrote: post #38

IBM could've been Palantir x100. they've the people, tech - only thing stopping them is myopic leadership.

I remember they were pushing the AI narrative all along the 2010s on their front page. 10 years ahead of everybody. We looked into it at the time there was nothing interesting. Outside of the mainframe, power business, some research and cool things they bought like Redhat and Hashicorp, IBM is an horrible company. They are the incarnation of the cold, stupid corporation, the buzzword soup and the sales to entrap you…

They were ahead of the industry in Marketing but not in reality.

Having AI and an army of consultants is the market standard today. This is because it works.

IBM slapped Watson on everything, and claimed a ton of revenue. In reality they had a bunch of customers who hated them for decades of broken promises.

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