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Global Warming at 3 °C by 2050? What's Behind the New German Climate Warning

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Re: Global Warming at 3 °C by 2050? What's Behind the New German Climate Warning

#91

Post by Paradigma11 »

aaronchall wrote: post #87
exabrial wrote: post #83

Germany just shut down several perfectly fine nuclear reactors and has some of the dirtiest electricity generation in the entire world They need to look inward before pointing outward.

I'm sure the day after Russia withdraws from Ukraine they're going to demand the pipeline from Russia be restored and everyone they suspect involved involved in the Nord Stream blasts extradited too.

North Stream was never about additional capacity. It was always about circumventing Ukraine's pipelines. Which in case of war turned it into a national security risk for Ukraine, which is why they blew it up. It forced Russia to either stop its exports or go through Ukraine. Which all turned out somewhat moot in the end.

Re: Global Warming at 3 °C by 2050? What's Behind the New German Climate Warning

#92

Post by ffsm8 »

homosapien97 wrote: post #60
foxglacier wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

Are you being intentionally obtuse? In normal language the quoted text means there is a meaningful chance of record temperatures 10 degrees hotter than current records.

It is weasel language which actually says nothing in order to not be disprovable

The reason we see it all the time is because we've gotten used to people trying to convince us that some unlikely scenario will take place to increase urgency.

While global warming is happening, the quoted sentence should be raising your "this is someone trying to convince me of something that has a neglectable likelihood of becoming reality"-alarm

But sure, it could be that we may get a significant heat up within the next 20 years. Regardless of that, if you're living in Germany you probably should get an AC, as even if that doesn't manifest, things can already get too warm

Re: Global Warming at 3 °C by 2050? What's Behind the New German Climate Warning

#93

Post by graeme »

gpt5 wrote: post #73
graeme wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Global co2 emissions are at an all time high. Co2 parts per million are a stock, like the level of water in a bathtub. Annual emissions are a flow, like how strongly the water is flowing in. The tub is fuller than ever before AND filling at the fastest rate ever. The problem is that carbon energy is useful. So unless something globally beats almost all use cases then somewhere marginally it will be worth burning vs n…

It's a leaking bathtub. Half life of excess CO2 in the atmosphere is 30-100 years. So you need the water flowing in to continue to increase in rate (not just to continue flowing in), otherwise you reach a new equilibrium and the CO2 levels in the atmosphere stop increasing. They do increase in rate as you said (for now).

That's a rather misleading statistic. Some is absorbed by oceans, where it acidifies. For land based carbon sinks (trees, soil, etc) any new carbon being deposited is competing with existing carbon in the carbon cycle.

If your stat had any sense then atmospheric carbon levels would rapidly plunge in a few centuries without humans burning carbon. They plainly don't do that.

Re: Global Warming at 3 °C by 2050? What's Behind the New German Climate Warning

#94

Post by bulbar »

xyzelement wrote: post #86

This article sprinkles the word "risk" which people interpret as "bad things are coming" but actually means "there's some probability of the bad thing happening." The probability is not quantified so it's impossible to react to. Over-protecting from a risk is as bad and under-protecting. For example - something bad can happen to you any time you leave your house. However if you "protect" against that the risk by neve…

> Over-protecting from a risk is as bad and under-protecting.

This is not generally true.

> For example - something bad can happen to you any time you leave your house.

The better analogue would be: outside of your house is a robber that will rob you if you leave the house. But you can't quantify how bad it will be to get robbed.

Re: Global Warming at 3 °C by 2050? What's Behind the New German Climate Warning

#95

Post by bulbar »

teravor wrote: post #79

I wouldn't be too worried about it this century at least. if things look like they are going to get bad we will resort to geoengineering, and once we get a taste for it we will further optimize global temperatures to our liking. perversely, global warming earlier than expected is a good thing [for us] as it will wipe away all meaningful opposition to geoengineering. note how according to them having 50C days is a lik…

We will develop geo engineering with our quantum computers, fueled by cold fusion reactors.

It's not like we just decide to solve something and then it just happens. There can also be serious outcomes of errors are made that are more serious than climate itself.

Re: Global Warming at 3 °C by 2050? What's Behind the New German Climate Warning

#96

Post by lwde »

exabrial wrote: post #83

Germany just shut down several perfectly fine nuclear reactors and has some of the dirtiest electricity generation in the entire world They need to look inward before pointing outward.

Just not true https://www.destatis.de/Europa/DE/Thema/Umwelt-Energie/Ausba...

Re: Global Warming at 3 °C by 2050? What's Behind the New German Climate Warning

#97

Post by cherrycherry98 »

dunWithIt wrote: post #82
cherrycherry98 wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you want less of something, tax it. Support consumption based taxes like the FairTax in the US which would tax new goods at a high rate while used goods would be tax free. This encourages keeping items for longer, repairing rather than replacing, and purchasing used goods over new ones.

Oh well ok I will get right on raising taxes. So simple I should have done it sooner. FairTax is regressive and does nothing to stop a trillionaire from launching dick rockets to nowhere. Each rocket and launch using more resources than a poor person will their entire life.

Not sure why the snarky response, obviously most people have very little direct influence over these things.

So you oppose green tax policy on the grounds that it isn't punitive enough against rich people? A rich person living a miserly life would pay little in taxes, I see no problem with that.

I assume that you are alluding to someone specific with the rocket launching trillionaire quip. That would be the same person who helped make electric vehicles viable and also helped develop reusable rockets, far greener than one time use ones, no?

Re: Global Warming at 3 °C by 2050? What's Behind the New German Climate Warning

#98

Post by aaron695 »

leonidasv wrote: post #10

This is the most important part most people don't get: > And what would 3 °C mean for Germany? > FB: In summer, meteorological records could reach up to 50 °C. Three degrees of global warming does not mean hot days will just be 3 or 4 degrees hotter. It could mean up to 10 degrees hotter. We would also face much longer droughts. 3°C warming implies summer days can get 10°C hotter. This is nightmare scenario.

[dead]

Re: Global Warming at 3 °C by 2050? What's Behind the New German Climate Warning

#99

Post by TJSomething »

teravor wrote: post #88
chorizo wrote: post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What we already have is uncontrolled geoengineering. Having said that, geoengineering might lead to geopolitical conflict. The current situation is making the tropical/equatorial area less habitable while creating overall benefits for the high latitudes.

> geoengineering might lead to geopolitical conflict I have heard of this but haven't heard a credible scenario describing it. if Europe or the US or China wanted to do it they could just be flying in circles in their own territory to deploy it safely (at the cost of some efficiency probably). only a nuclear power would likely dare to unilaterally do geoengineering. it remains to be seen who will start the geoenginee…

I'm assuming that the most relevant geoengineering is worldwide stuff like blotting out the sun with microsatellites at L1 and dumping iron or lime into the oceans to increase CO2 absorption.

Re: Global Warming at 3 °C by 2050? What's Behind the New German Climate Warning

#100

Post by teravor »

TJSomething wrote: post #99
teravor wrote: post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> geoengineering might lead to geopolitical conflict I have heard of this but haven't heard a credible scenario describing it. if Europe or the US or China wanted to do it they could just be flying in circles in their own territory to deploy it safely (at the cost of some efficiency probably). only a nuclear power would likely dare to unilaterally do geoengineering. it remains to be seen who will start the geoenginee…

I'm assuming that the most relevant geoengineering is worldwide stuff like blotting out the sun with microsatellites at L1 and dumping iron or lime into the oceans to increase CO2 absorption.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stratospheric_aerosol_injectio...
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