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S&P Global has lowered Oracle’s creditworthiness from BBB to BBB-

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Re: S&P Global has lowered Oracle’s creditworthiness from BBB to BBB-

#271

Post by CamperBob2 »

ericmay wrote: post #142
lelanthran wrote: post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My point was that there is no ROI until the investors exit! IMO, those shares are overpriced even at private investment levels, but my opinion is still irrelevant to the fact that there is no ROI until the investors exit!

And when do those investors exit? Nobody forces you or any other individual investor to buy shares in their “pump-and-dump company” when it lists.

Nobody forces you or any other individual investor to buy shares in their “pump-and-dump company” when it lists.

Well, they certainly tried to, with SpaceX.

Re: S&P Global has lowered Oracle’s creditworthiness from BBB to BBB-

#272

Post by dibbsonline »

lelanthran wrote: post #88
cmiles8 wrote: post #31

Market signals on an impending AI bust are broader than just Oracle’s woes. For example, Amazon just had a challenging bond offering where the market is clearly starting to seriously question the ROI on all this money being pumped into AI buildout. That does not bode well at all for AI-only companies without broader cash flow from other businesses. And when the cash dries up this whole thing comes crashing down like…

> Market signals on an impending AI bust are broader than just Oracle’s woes. It's worse than that - I believe that Oracle is one of the (many) companies right now that, if their AI experimentation fails, will stop the music, and everyone will be running for a chair. Oracle is one of a few foundational components in the circular-investing group of AI companies. If they fail to make their commitments they're the first…

Takes a lot of IaaS to support the GPUs and workflows, all of that kit is immediately re-useable as general purpose compute to exit the commercial DCs they operate out of today.

Much of their current debt fuelled expansion isn't singular to AI. The circular narrative ignores this.

Re: S&P Global has lowered Oracle’s creditworthiness from BBB to BBB-

#273

Post by fhdkweig »

BeetleB wrote: post #270
fhdkweig wrote: post #212

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I moved 80% of my money out of Vanguard's Target Date Retirement funds and into a money market on June 1st. In the 1.5 months since, the remaining Target Date Retirement fund has fluctuated up and down by about 0.1%. It has basically plateaued. I don't think I am losing out on potential short term gains. I like the idea that I have cash available to buy in on the day of the crash.

Honest question: Do you expect the AI crash to have a bigger impact on the economy than a global pandemic that shut everything down did?

I don't know, but they aren't really in the same category either. The pandemic didn't shut down everything. It didn't really shut down much, people worked from home and got deliveries instead of doing things in person. There were sectors that were hit bad, but certainly not everything.

The AI crash is about stock market indicator ratios matching those that preceded other major crashes. That's what got me spooked. I don't want to be heavily invested in those companies when/if something bad happens.

Re: S&P Global has lowered Oracle’s creditworthiness from BBB to BBB-

#274

Post by [deleted] »

ndsipa_pomu wrote: post #245
notatoad wrote: post #229

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My understanding of the ai circular financing racket is that not everyone will be running for a chair. Nvidia owns all the chairs, and they’re letting other companies pretend to for a while, but if it all falls apart the backstop to the collapse will be nvidia.

Doesn't Nvidia's success depend hugely on AI money pumping up demand for their products? If/when AI companies run out of money to keep investing in data centres, the bottom will fall out of the market and hopefully we can go back to buying reasonably priced graphics cards.

[deleted]

Re: S&P Global has lowered Oracle’s creditworthiness from BBB to BBB-

#275

Post by ductsurprise »

pedrosuave wrote: post #249

Is just wild to me people thinking ai is tulip fever or a massive bubble when every part of my life ai is entering. Even these forums 35 percent of posts are ai or vibe code related. At work (medical field) ai is replacing scribes and it can read an ecg better than your average doc. TSMC and chip companies are using in their pipelines. Pharm and bio companies are using. Archeologists are using to decode scrolls and f…

Should(or When) said 'bubble' 'pop', AI isn't going away or expected to lose relevance.

If you were around about the time of the Dot-Com bubble, you can better make sense of the saying.

The web never stopped being useful, it was the ridiculous and speculative valuations of companies, and outlandish claims that couldn't sustain themselves and eventually 'popped'.

Re: S&P Global has lowered Oracle’s creditworthiness from BBB to BBB-

#276

Post by surgical_fire »

dibbsonline wrote: post #272
lelanthran wrote: post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Market signals on an impending AI bust are broader than just Oracle’s woes. It's worse than that - I believe that Oracle is one of the (many) companies right now that, if their AI experimentation fails, will stop the music, and everyone will be running for a chair. Oracle is one of a few foundational components in the circular-investing group of AI companies. If they fail to make their commitments they're the first…

Takes a lot of IaaS to support the GPUs and workflows, all of that kit is immediately re-useable as general purpose compute to exit the commercial DCs they operate out of today. Much of their current debt fuelled expansion isn't singular to AI. The circular narrative ignores this.

Without the massive investiment in GPUs, what is the excessive IaaS going to support?

Re: S&P Global has lowered Oracle’s creditworthiness from BBB to BBB-

#277

Post by seanmcdirmid »

lelanthran wrote: post #88
cmiles8 wrote: post #31

Market signals on an impending AI bust are broader than just Oracle’s woes. For example, Amazon just had a challenging bond offering where the market is clearly starting to seriously question the ROI on all this money being pumped into AI buildout. That does not bode well at all for AI-only companies without broader cash flow from other businesses. And when the cash dries up this whole thing comes crashing down like…

> Market signals on an impending AI bust are broader than just Oracle’s woes. It's worse than that - I believe that Oracle is one of the (many) companies right now that, if their AI experimentation fails, will stop the music, and everyone will be running for a chair. Oracle is one of a few foundational components in the circular-investing group of AI companies. If they fail to make their commitments they're the first…

Oracle has been a toxic tech for a long time (along with IBM). I don't think anyone is putting it in the same bucket of modern tech companies, let alone AI companies.

Frankly, their forays into dubious financial engineering and investments are expected at this point.

Re: S&P Global has lowered Oracle’s creditworthiness from BBB to BBB-

#278

Post by axus »

Maxatar wrote: post #133
Ancalagon wrote: post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And none of the major model makers (not counting SpaceX) have IPO'd yet

Is Gemini really that unpopular?

They get all of the ad revenue, but really don't sell as many money-losing monthly subscriptions as the other guys.

Re: S&P Global has lowered Oracle’s creditworthiness from BBB to BBB-

#279

Post by BeetleB »

fhdkweig wrote: post #273
BeetleB wrote: post #270

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Honest question: Do you expect the AI crash to have a bigger impact on the economy than a global pandemic that shut everything down did?

I don't know, but they aren't really in the same category either. The pandemic didn't shut down everything. It didn't really shut down much, people worked from home and got deliveries instead of doing things in person. There were sectors that were hit bad, but certainly not everything. The AI crash is about stock market indicator ratios matching those that preceded other major crashes. That's what got me spooked. I d…

My point is that whether there will be a crash or not is incredibly hard to predict. COVID did not come with a stock market crash, but it affected employment much more than a possible AI crash will.

> The AI crash is about stock market indicator ratios matching those that preceded other major crashes.

The way to put faith in such indicators is not (only) by looking at prior crashes, but by forward testing them. Over the last decade, it's been common for me to hear a sentiment like yours: "Indicator X has always resulted in a serious downturn in the past, and we're in X territory now" - and no crash ensued. Over and over again.

Find me an indicator that someone back tested, and then also actually predicted a real crash (with zero false positives). The cost of even a single false positive can be huge. Ask the guys who pulled out (or sold their houses) when COVID struck.

Don't become the person who predicts 7 of the last 2 recessions.

Re: S&P Global has lowered Oracle’s creditworthiness from BBB to BBB-

#280

Post by solumunus »

lelanthran wrote: post #88
cmiles8 wrote: post #31

Market signals on an impending AI bust are broader than just Oracle’s woes. For example, Amazon just had a challenging bond offering where the market is clearly starting to seriously question the ROI on all this money being pumped into AI buildout. That does not bode well at all for AI-only companies without broader cash flow from other businesses. And when the cash dries up this whole thing comes crashing down like…

> Market signals on an impending AI bust are broader than just Oracle’s woes. It's worse than that - I believe that Oracle is one of the (many) companies right now that, if their AI experimentation fails, will stop the music, and everyone will be running for a chair. Oracle is one of a few foundational components in the circular-investing group of AI companies. If they fail to make their commitments they're the first…

And let’s be honest there’s absolutely no chance Oracle will be successful here right?
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