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S&P Global has lowered Oracle’s creditworthiness from BBB to BBB-

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Re: S&P Global has lowered Oracle’s creditworthiness from BBB to BBB-

#221

Post by 3848484894 »

ericmay wrote: post #201
3848484894 wrote: post #111

Earlier quoted context omitted.

With a couple million dollars, you can buy many many articles on the financial times and barron's. With a couple friends, you can get other friends in pension funds to allocate into you. With other friends, you can get beneficial messaging from all sorts of public and private channels. Banks and funds can pump your offerings for something in return if you went to the right bar mitvah. Of course this only lasts for so…

Sure, but this applies to any sufficiently advanced conspiracy theory and wouldn't be limited to markets. Secondly you the individual can just not buy the shares if you think they are overvalued. You're confusing your own interpretation of the valuation of some company with "the right valuation". Maybe you're just wrong and they're not over valued? Maybe you're right? It doesn't matter much, except you can buy shares…

What I'm saying is that it's a very small world. There's no conspiracy here just friendship and love.

Re: S&P Global has lowered Oracle’s creditworthiness from BBB to BBB-

#222

Post by ceejayoz »

ericmay wrote: post #196
csoups14 wrote: post #186

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Every day investors absolutely buy these shares; these price targets are publicly available and SpaceX shares are equally publicly available. You've claimed everyone who is disagreeing with you in this thread is not providing a coherent argument. Have a great day mate.

> Every day investors absolutely buy these shares; these price targets are publicly available and SpaceX shares are equally publicly available. And you can just not buy the shares . It's very straightforward.

> And you can just not buy the shares. It's very straightforward.

Sure, but the SEC exists, in theory, to make that decision one you can make an informed decision on, because con artists don't typically put a disclaimer in that says "this is bullshit".

Re: S&P Global has lowered Oracle’s creditworthiness from BBB to BBB-

#223

Post by baal80spam »

marojejian wrote: post #207
pid-1 wrote: post #171

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hold short term debt (e.g money market funds or SOFR ETFs). Then you will have cash in hand if either stocks fall or yelds raise. Never buy derivatives as a non institutional investor.

Why should a retail investor never buy derivatives? spreads?

It's all about getting a call from the dreaded Margin.

Re: S&P Global has lowered Oracle’s creditworthiness from BBB to BBB-

#224

Post by jryan49 »

someuser54541 wrote: post #146
cmiles8 wrote: post #136

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Stay well diversified, keep investing each month, and take a nap. There are almost surely severe bumps ahead for the AI space and that will likely spill over into the broader market. But unless you’re retiring in the next few years don’t worry about it. You can’t time the ups and downs and the only proven strategy is to just keep investing in a broad indexed portfolio and just ride out. You’ll take a short term hit b…

I suppose I'm just a little worried about a 10 year sideways market. The run-up has been absolutely insane the past year...some graphs are just a literal straight line up. I didn't get to participate in much of that and concerned the prevailing wisdom on these larger timescales may no longer hold true.

Stocks are long term investments, 10yr+ So you should expect the possibility of a sideways market.

Re: S&P Global has lowered Oracle’s creditworthiness from BBB to BBB-

#225

Post by pid-1 »

rich_sasha wrote: post #209
pid-1 wrote: post #171

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hold short term debt (e.g money market funds or SOFR ETFs). Then you will have cash in hand if either stocks fall or yelds raise. Never buy derivatives as a non institutional investor.

It's worth adding that conventional wisdom says, you can't time the market. On average, people shifting between cash and stocks to time shocks lose out over just holding a fixed portfolio.

Absolutely 100% agree.

At the same time, one can make financial decisions based on risk rather than longterm expected returns.

For instance, I'm happy with fixed income yields rn.

What would scare me is losing a big chunk of my portfolio in a downturn, exactly when I'm also most likely to lose my job.

Re: S&P Global has lowered Oracle’s creditworthiness from BBB to BBB-

#226

Post by s1artibartfast »

xienze wrote: post #143
semiquaver wrote: post #135

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nothing says “full of shit” like someone saying “market is signaling an impending X”. Why not make a huge levered bet and get wildly rich if you think so?

Knowing "what" will happen is different from knowing "when" it will happen.

Then you don't know it's impending

Re: S&P Global has lowered Oracle’s creditworthiness from BBB to BBB-

#227

Post by wil421 »

fhdkweig wrote: post #212
pid-1 wrote: post #171

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hold short term debt (e.g money market funds or SOFR ETFs). Then you will have cash in hand if either stocks fall or yelds raise. Never buy derivatives as a non institutional investor.

I moved 80% of my money out of Vanguard's Target Date Retirement funds and into a money market on June 1st. In the 1.5 months since, the remaining Target Date Retirement fund has fluctuated up and down by about 0.1%. It has basically plateaued. I don't think I am losing out on potential short term gains. I like the idea that I have cash available to buy in on the day of the crash.

My boss has already done this several times over the past couple years because of some impeding market crash. Then he goes back and buys a week or so later.

Re: S&P Global has lowered Oracle’s creditworthiness from BBB to BBB-

#228

Post by s1artibartfast »

lelanthran wrote: post #170
ericmay wrote: post #142

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And when do those investors exit? Nobody forces you or any other individual investor to buy shares in their “pump-and-dump company” when it lists.

> And when do those investors exit? Who knows? Who cares? My point is that until those investors exit, there is no ROI. The comment I originally responded to was talking about investors getting ROI from AI companies. I'm pointing out that no such thing will happen until the investors exit.

In terms of Oracle, the topic of this thread, lenders are already getting paid out. Oracle borrows money and issues corporate bonds at fixed percentage rates.

Oracle paid out 5 billion in interest last fiscal year.

Re: S&P Global has lowered Oracle’s creditworthiness from BBB to BBB-

#229

Post by notatoad »

lelanthran wrote: post #88
cmiles8 wrote: post #31

Market signals on an impending AI bust are broader than just Oracle’s woes. For example, Amazon just had a challenging bond offering where the market is clearly starting to seriously question the ROI on all this money being pumped into AI buildout. That does not bode well at all for AI-only companies without broader cash flow from other businesses. And when the cash dries up this whole thing comes crashing down like…

> Market signals on an impending AI bust are broader than just Oracle’s woes. It's worse than that - I believe that Oracle is one of the (many) companies right now that, if their AI experimentation fails, will stop the music, and everyone will be running for a chair. Oracle is one of a few foundational components in the circular-investing group of AI companies. If they fail to make their commitments they're the first…

My understanding of the ai circular financing racket is that not everyone will be running for a chair.

Nvidia owns all the chairs, and they’re letting other companies pretend to for a while, but if it all falls apart the backstop to the collapse will be nvidia.

Re: S&P Global has lowered Oracle’s creditworthiness from BBB to BBB-

#230

Post by le-mark »

fhdkweig wrote: post #212
pid-1 wrote: post #171

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hold short term debt (e.g money market funds or SOFR ETFs). Then you will have cash in hand if either stocks fall or yelds raise. Never buy derivatives as a non institutional investor.

I moved 80% of my money out of Vanguard's Target Date Retirement funds and into a money market on June 1st. In the 1.5 months since, the remaining Target Date Retirement fund has fluctuated up and down by about 0.1%. It has basically plateaued. I don't think I am losing out on potential short term gains. I like the idea that I have cash available to buy in on the day of the crash.

Good luck dude! This kind of move can pay off big or not, clearly. I’ve personally talked to fable about this a lot, suggest everyone does.

There are a lot of failure modes. The dot-com bubble looked obvious in 1997; it popped in 2000. Anyone shorting in '97-'98 was carried out on a stretcher before being vindicated. In fact 2000-2002 fell in three brutal legs over two years, and anyone who leveraged up after the first 25% leg was destroyed by the next two.

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