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IBM is on pace for its worst day ever

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Re: IBM is on pace for its worst day ever

#21
post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Depends what happens next. RSUs are taxed as ordinary income at their market value at the time they vest, so it's not necessarily bad if the stock is down. In fact, the ideal scenario is that the price drops just before your vest and then bounces back up after.

If an employee periodically vests a fixed number of shares, as opposed to a fixed dollar amount of shares, this is actually untrue. Assume an employee's marginal tax rate is 40% and their capital gains rate is 15%. Then there are 2 scenarios: 1. Vest 100 shares at $100 apiece. After tax that's 60 shares * $100 = $6000 total. 2. A sudden price drop causes 100 shares to vest at $50. After tax that's 60 shares * $50 = $…

>2. A sudden price drop causes 100 shares to vest at $50. After tax that's 60 shares * $50 = $3000. [...]

This is only true if you "sell" 40 shares immediately at the time of vesting to pay the tax bill. Because you lose the 40 shares, you don't have as much shares to appreciate in the subsequent upswing. However if you prefer to settle your tax obligations in cash instead, you don't have this issue and you'd actually pay less taxes (assuming the upswing does materialize). It's risky though, because you're basically taking a long position on the stock, and if it falls even more, you'd lose even more money.

Re: IBM is on pace for its worst day ever

#22
post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If an employee periodically vests a fixed number of shares, as opposed to a fixed dollar amount of shares, this is actually untrue. Assume an employee's marginal tax rate is 40% and their capital gains rate is 15%. Then there are 2 scenarios: 1. Vest 100 shares at $100 apiece. After tax that's 60 shares * $100 = $6000 total. 2. A sudden price drop causes 100 shares to vest at $50. After tax that's 60 shares * $50 = $…

>2. A sudden price drop causes 100 shares to vest at $50. After tax that's 60 shares * $50 = $3000. [...] This is only true if you "sell" 40 shares immediately at the time of vesting to pay the tax bill. Because you lose the 40 shares, you don't have as much shares to appreciate in the subsequent upswing. However if you prefer to settle your tax obligations in cash instead, you don't have this issue and you'd actuall…

> This is only true if you "sell" 40 shares immediately at the time of vesting to pay the tax bill

I wasn't aware there's a choice. That's a paycheck withholding essentially.

Re: IBM is on pace for its worst day ever

#24
post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If an employee periodically vests a fixed number of shares, as opposed to a fixed dollar amount of shares, this is actually untrue. Assume an employee's marginal tax rate is 40% and their capital gains rate is 15%. Then there are 2 scenarios: 1. Vest 100 shares at $100 apiece. After tax that's 60 shares * $100 = $6000 total. 2. A sudden price drop causes 100 shares to vest at $50. After tax that's 60 shares * $50 = $…

>2. A sudden price drop causes 100 shares to vest at $50. After tax that's 60 shares * $50 = $3000. [...] This is only true if you "sell" 40 shares immediately at the time of vesting to pay the tax bill. Because you lose the 40 shares, you don't have as much shares to appreciate in the subsequent upswing. However if you prefer to settle your tax obligations in cash instead, you don't have this issue and you'd actuall…

Paying taxes isn't optional. Sure you can invest more in the stock with external funds but that's not a fair proposition. If you were to tell me there's a certain chance of a stock going up by 100% we could also just buy calls with those magic funds and make far more money.

Re: IBM is on pace for its worst day ever

#25

its ironic that IBM sold off its x86 pc/server to Lenovo and kept their big iron (mainframe) but now everyone is buying up pc/server due to AI boom. Dell's stock have been surging with the rest of AI stocks

Pretty sad that the company that invented DRAM completely divested itself of actually making any, now that it’s wildly profitable.

Re: IBM is on pace for its worst day ever

#26
post #16
post #2

The press release: https://newsroom.ibm.com/2026-07-14-Arvind-Krishnas-Letter-t... With the caveat that I work for IBM but have no inside knowledge about anything important, it doesn't seem very bad to me? Overall profit is going to be down a tiny amount below expectations.

If I read that as an IBM investor I might fully exit. The new product flopped, growth was 1%, and the CEO sounds extremely unconfident. There are way better places to put your money given the potential for future earnings now looks incredibly weak.

Where would you put your money? Everything in the US seems to have exposure to the AI bubble. Is Europe sitting out of the AI race? Maybe some euro etf?

Re: IBM is on pace for its worst day ever

#27
post #2

The press release: https://newsroom.ibm.com/2026-07-14-Arvind-Krishnas-Letter-t... With the caveat that I work for IBM but have no inside knowledge about anything important, it doesn't seem very bad to me? Overall profit is going to be down a tiny amount below expectations.

>In the last few weeks of June, we saw clients shift their quarterly capex spend toward servers, storage, and memory purchases to secure supply-constrained infrastructure ahead of expected price increases. This dynamic impacted client buying patterns. While we anticipated some supply chain related impact in our expectations, we did not anticipate the magnitude of the capex reprioritization. In addition, clients were distracted with rapidly-evolving, industry-wide cybersecurity concerns in the quarter.

Re: IBM is on pace for its worst day ever

#28

its ironic that IBM sold off its x86 pc/server to Lenovo and kept their big iron (mainframe) but now everyone is buying up pc/server due to AI boom. Dell's stock have been surging with the rest of AI stocks

I think it made sense on its own terms. They retrenched into the business where they are actually differentiated. It is notable that IBM net margins have been ~15% at best for decades. It's an odd business that is huge and just trucks along without remarkable growth. It is the butt of jokes but also a top 100 company by many measures.

Re: IBM is on pace for its worst day ever

#30
post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If I read that as an IBM investor I might fully exit. The new product flopped, growth was 1%, and the CEO sounds extremely unconfident. There are way better places to put your money given the potential for future earnings now looks incredibly weak.

Where would you put your money? Everything in the US seems to have exposure to the AI bubble. Is Europe sitting out of the AI race? Maybe some euro etf?

US recession will spread to everything and everyone, including or especially EU.
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