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IBM is on pace for its worst day ever

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Re: IBM is on pace for its worst day ever

#11

Post by bionsystem »

rwmj wrote: post #8
bionsystem wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, the answer is in your question, it's all about expectations ; the market wanted more, didn't get it, and re-rates.

Sure, but a prediction made 3 months ago turns out to be short by a few percent at most, and that leads to a 25%+ drop in the share price? That seems weird to me.

What if the market expected 25% more then reported ? Nobody "knows" what the market expects. People infer it by looking at forward valuation, company guidance, investor expectations, and many many other things happening in the world, in competition, in the value chain. And of course the market does its thing and figures that this company has x% chance of beating (or missing) by $y, and when it's wrong the moves can be huge.

Re: IBM is on pace for its worst day ever

#12

Post by basiccalendar74 »

antonyt wrote: post #9
rwmj wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Great meaning bad?

Depends what happens next. RSUs are taxed as ordinary income at their market value at the time they vest, so it's not necessarily bad if the stock is down. In fact, the ideal scenario is that the price drops just before your vest and then bounces back up after.

can you show the math for your last statement?

Re: IBM is on pace for its worst day ever

#13

Post by triceratops »

antonyt wrote: post #9
rwmj wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Great meaning bad?

Depends what happens next. RSUs are taxed as ordinary income at their market value at the time they vest, so it's not necessarily bad if the stock is down. In fact, the ideal scenario is that the price drops just before your vest and then bounces back up after.

If an employee periodically vests a fixed number of shares, as opposed to a fixed dollar amount of shares, this is actually untrue.

Assume an employee's marginal tax rate is 40% and their capital gains rate is 15%. Then there are 2 scenarios:

1. Vest 100 shares at $100 apiece. After tax that's 60 shares * $100 = $6000 total.

2. A sudden price drop causes 100 shares to vest at $50. After tax that's 60 shares * $50 = $3000. Later the price rises to $100 and the employee sells them. Another $3000 in capital gains, leaving $2550 after taxes. Total = $5250.

Re: IBM is on pace for its worst day ever

#16

Post by bix6 »

rwmj wrote: post #2

The press release: https://newsroom.ibm.com/2026-07-14-Arvind-Krishnas-Letter-t... With the caveat that I work for IBM but have no inside knowledge about anything important, it doesn't seem very bad to me? Overall profit is going to be down a tiny amount below expectations.

If I read that as an IBM investor I might fully exit. The new product flopped, growth was 1%, and the CEO sounds extremely unconfident. There are way better places to put your money given the potential for future earnings now looks incredibly weak.

Re: IBM is on pace for its worst day ever

#17

Post by ChrisArchitect »

All over the place in Big Blue land:

Jan 28: IBM Mainframe Business Jumps 67%

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46802376

Feb 13: IBM tripling entry-level jobs after finding the limits of AI adoption

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47009327

Feb 23: IBM Plunges After Anthropic's Latest Update Takes on COBOL

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47128907

Apr 30: Granite 4.1: IBM's 8B Model Matching 32B MoE

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47960507

Jun 25: IBM debuts sub-1 nanometer chip technology

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48674967

Re: IBM is on pace for its worst day ever

#18

Post by throwway120385 »

rwmj wrote: post #8
bionsystem wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, the answer is in your question, it's all about expectations ; the market wanted more, didn't get it, and re-rates.

Sure, but a prediction made 3 months ago turns out to be short by a few percent at most, and that leads to a 25%+ drop in the share price? That seems weird to me.

IME you have to be true to what you predict. Whether you're predictably growing, predictably shrinking, or predictably flat if you blow your prediction that's when people start to worry that you don't know what you're doing.

Re: IBM is on pace for its worst day ever

#19

Post by [deleted] »

antonyt wrote: post #9
rwmj wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Great meaning bad?

Depends what happens next. RSUs are taxed as ordinary income at their market value at the time they vest, so it's not necessarily bad if the stock is down. In fact, the ideal scenario is that the price drops just before your vest and then bounces back up after.

[deleted]

Re: IBM is on pace for its worst day ever

#20

Post by HumblyTossed »

MangoCoffee wrote: post #14

its ironic that IBM sold off its x86 pc/server to Lenovo and kept their big iron (mainframe) but now everyone is buying up pc/server due to AI boom. Dell's stock have been surging with the rest of AI stocks

They just need to wait until nobody is selling or can buy new PCs and are forced to use outdated equipment to use as dumb terminals to access those mainframes.
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