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S&P Global has lowered Oracle’s creditworthiness from BBB to BBB-

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Re: S&P Global has lowered Oracle’s creditworthiness from BBB to BBB-

#181

Post by Avicebron »

Maxatar wrote: post #133
Ancalagon wrote: post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And none of the major model makers (not counting SpaceX) have IPO'd yet

Is Gemini really that unpopular?

If you don't count the autosummary/gen answer at the top of googling an answer I would say so. Outside of the more technically inclined crowd I think the sentiment is if you aren't at the forefront (opus/fable/chatgpt) then your last or at least indistinguishable from all the rest of the lesser models.

If you're selling deterministic output, just use traditional code. If you product is inference, it has to be the best inference. This becomes more apparent when you bounce between powerful models and smaller cheaper ones, the cheaper ones _feel_ worse to use.

Re: S&P Global has lowered Oracle’s creditworthiness from BBB to BBB-

#182

Post by Aurornis »

cmiles8 wrote: post #31

Market signals on an impending AI bust are broader than just Oracle’s woes. For example, Amazon just had a challenging bond offering where the market is clearly starting to seriously question the ROI on all this money being pumped into AI buildout. That does not bode well at all for AI-only companies without broader cash flow from other businesses. And when the cash dries up this whole thing comes crashing down like…

> And when the cash dries up this whole thing comes crashing down like a house of cards.

The problem in this market is that too many players are trying to play a winner-takes-all angle.

For the companies that pull it off, it could be very lucrative.

In a real market we’ll get a couple of big winners rather than one, but there isn’t enough room for all of these moonshot efforts to land.

I don’t see the whole thing coming crashing down, but I do see a consolidation coming that leaves some companies in a very bad state.

Re: S&P Global has lowered Oracle’s creditworthiness from BBB to BBB-

#185

Post by harmmonica »

dralley wrote: post #24

Here's hoping this screws up the collateralization of the Paramount takeover deal, and the whole thing unravels.

I looked this up yesterday triggered by their threat to move the combined company out of CA. Oracle’s stock price, at least, which is way off its 52-week high, is about the same as it was at the time the WBD deal was announced.

What does that tell me? Just one of many things about the prospects of the deal still happening. That one in particular says to me they won’t be deterred. Bond rating may suggest the opposite. Lots more complexity than those two things but “fun” to speculate.

Re: S&P Global has lowered Oracle’s creditworthiness from BBB to BBB-

#186

Post by csoups14 »

ericmay wrote: post #180
csoups14 wrote: post #163

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If individual investors are buying shares and getting blown up, that’s their problem. Invest and due your own research. This is simply absurd. Of the investment banks that helped SpaceX IPO, Goldman Sachs has their price target at $205 (139x implied price to sales), JP Morgan at $225 (152x implied P/S), Deutsche Bank at $255 (173x implied P/S), Morgan Stanley at $300 (203x implied P/S), and Raymond James at $800 (5…

> It's the 1920s all over again; publicly pump and privately sell into the demand you're creating. It's not the 1920s all over again. > Of the investment banks that helped SpaceX IPO, Goldman Sachs has their price target at $205 (139x implied price to sales), JP Morgan at $225 (152x implied P/S), Deutsche Bank at $255 (173x implied P/S), Morgan Stanley at $300 (203x implied P/S), and Raymond James at $800 (542x impli…

Every day investors absolutely buy these shares; these price targets are publicly available and SpaceX shares are equally publicly available. You've claimed everyone who is disagreeing with you in this thread is not providing a coherent argument. Have a great day mate.

Re: S&P Global has lowered Oracle’s creditworthiness from BBB to BBB-

#187

Post by xorcist »

Analemma_ wrote: post #96
LaurensBER wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When we tried to do a pilot with their cloud we couldn't even sign-up. None of the corporate credit cards were accepted. In addition to that the form basically only worked in Edge. We emailed support, they changed something on the backend. It still did not work. We gave up. In retrospective that was a very clear warning sign that their priorities were misguided. I'm glad we did not waste any further time and effort o…

Oracle Cloud sometimes feels like an elaborate prank that I'm not in on. I know people and companies on AWS (obviously), Azure, Google Cloud, Hetzner, CloudFlare's various PaaS offerings, etc., but I can't name a single thing running on Oracle Cloud. Somebody out there is clearly using but I'll be damned if I know who it is.

Keep in mind that Oracle can be deliberately nebulous about what their cloud offering is (pun intended).

Any hosted service can be bent into the shape of a cloud. Large parts of Oracle Cloud balance sheet is probably just hosted PeopleSoft and similar.

They have this in common with IBM which, at least on paper, have a large cloud business.

Re: S&P Global has lowered Oracle’s creditworthiness from BBB to BBB-

#188

Post by pphysch »

SirFatty wrote: post #36
therobots927 wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well it seems like he bought the “AGI is 2 years away” line. As did… pretty much everyone in Silicon Valley.

yeah.. https://ai-2027.com/

This AGI silliness is predicated on a flawed "Platonic" view of epistemology. The notion that there is some well-defined "idea space" and therefore superintelligence can explore that space faster than any human. In fact, there is no such space. There is a "token space" that can be explored, but that has only fleeting overlaps with reality.

Re: S&P Global has lowered Oracle’s creditworthiness from BBB to BBB-

#189

Post by Aurornis »

LaurensBER wrote: post #38
chasil wrote: post #26

And they terminated 30k employees to achieve this? https://www.forbes.com/sites/jonmarkman/2026/04/06/oracles-m...

When we tried to do a pilot with their cloud we couldn't even sign-up. None of the corporate credit cards were accepted. In addition to that the form basically only worked in Edge. We emailed support, they changed something on the backend. It still did not work. We gave up. In retrospective that was a very clear warning sign that their priorities were misguided. I'm glad we did not waste any further time and effort o…

I signed up for Oracle Cloud. I couldn’t get any of the free trial options to work due to capacity limits. I couldn’t get my payment method added so I could pay for real servers.

Then they terminated my free trial early with no explanation. I tried to add a payment method again and it didn’t work.

It turned into a bigger joke when Oracle sales people started emailing me to ask how my trial was going. They must have been given a list of email addresses and no information about the accounts. I would ask them for help getting my account unlocked or adding a payment method, they would send me emails for a couple weeks saying they were looking into it, then they’d ghost me.

Then a month later a new sales rep would email me and start the process over.

I checked Reddit and there were dozens of stories with the same experience.

Re: S&P Global has lowered Oracle’s creditworthiness from BBB to BBB-

#190

Post by dragonwriter »

lelanthran wrote: post #76
nradov wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The moat is shifting from technology to access to proprietary training data. It doesn't matter how good your LLM platform is if you don't have good data to feed the training run. Public Internet data and published media is already mined out. Now the frontier LLM vendors have shifted to licensing proprietary data that's locked up behind corporate firewalls, and even hiring human domain experts specifically to create n…

> Now the frontier LLM vendors have shifted to licensing proprietary data that's locked up behind corporate firewalls, and even hiring human domain experts specifically to create new training content in target verticals. That's a losing proposition for any token provider - it's expensive and slow, and when you're done everyone with money to rent a last-gen H100 is going to distill your "closed" model anyway.

> That's a losing proposition for any token provider

The specialized models for targeted verticals being discussed may well not be sold by tokens, but instead be behind the scenes powering dedicated packaged solutions where the customers don't have raw access to the model. Token providers still won’t have a moat, but AI isn't just selling tokens.

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