Earlier quoted context omitted.
I didn't find the source URL unreadable. It's here: https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily/?dm_id=nino3.4 The lowest ones were 1988 and 1989.
Fair, I had to click into the full size (I pinch zoomed on my phone). But now the fact that 1988/1989 are outliers raise a few more questions about the variance calculation. In particular, the title suggests that those weren't included in the variance calculation. A 3.5-sigma event is a 1-in-1000 chance. Yet we have 2 of them in our data set that goes back only 40ish years? Something is suspect. Maybe I'm not account…
A graph that should be front-page news
431–440 of 469 posts
Re: A graph that should be front-page news
#432Re: A graph that should be front-page news
#433Re: A graph that should be front-page news
#434[instrumental intro]
[bridge]
[VERSE 1: judges] Sanction the judges War crimes didn’t happen That’s all you need to know In this controversial matter.
Sanction the judges War crimes disappear Livestreamed in 4K Still don't see clear
[bridge] [instrumental]
[REFRAIN] That was a verse Now this is refrain Follow the narrative From truth refrain.
[bridge] [instrumental]
[VERSE 2: reality] Sanction reality It’s easier that way Moral clarity Concerns go away
Sanction reality Money will follow Don’t follow the money Morality hollow
[bridge] [instrumental]
[REFRAIN] That was a verse Now this is refrain Follow the narrative From truth refrain.
[bridge] [instrumental]
[VERSE 3: Albanese]
Sanction Albanese Her weapon is a pen Research and legalese Her reports contain
Sanction Albanese Political tool Rubio by Chinese He is sanctioned too
[bridge] [instrumental]
[REFRAIN] That was a verse Now this is refrain Follow the narrative From truth refrain.
[bridge] [instrumental]
[VERSE 4: Climate]
Sanction the climate But climate doesn’t care No speech, no objections It just comes in waves
Sanction the climate NASA is wrong Moon sixty nine Now facts are gone
[bridge] [instrumental]
[REFRAIN] That was a verse Now this is refrain Follow the narrative From truth refrain.
[bridge] [instrumental]
[Final verse]
The system was broke Sanctions were a joke Reality arrives Humanity thrives Your heart knows the truth It's beyond the proof
[bridge] [instrumental]
Your heart knows the truth It's beyond the proof
[bridge] [instrumental]
[instrumental drum and bass]
[outro]
Re: A graph that should be front-page news
#435Earlier quoted context omitted.
I think a 3.5-sigma event being a 1/1000 probability is only under the assumption of random data - a constant climate would deliver more-or-less random data around some mean. The appearance of two 3.5-sigma events suggests that the data is no longer being randomly generated around that mean, but is instead drifting away from that mean. More concretely, if all the data were within 2-sigma, then you could invoke the nu…
> The appearance of two 3.5-sigma events suggests that the data is no longer being randomly generated around that mean, but is instead drifting away from that mean. Not if the two 3.5-sigma events are in opposite directions, as in this case.
Re: A graph that should be front-page news
#436Re: A graph that should be front-page news
#437Earlier quoted context omitted.
[flagged]
Please don't post flame bait on HN, including population-wide swipes like “the ignorance of the common human being”. The guidelines make it clear we're trying for something better here. https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
"Ignorance is the fundamental lack of knowledge, information, or awareness about a particular subject."
Its not even an evaluation of my side.
I'm fine with accepting that people have to work, are busy with other things, struggle in live etc.
But the sentence in itself is not bad? And it directly references op.
Re: A graph that should be front-page news
#438Earlier quoted context omitted.
It seems like you are ignoring the hundreds of other signals that tell a similar story to this graph?
Not ignoring anything, just commenting on what the graph says as a singular piece of evidence. And it's "the hundreds of other signals that tell a similar story" that can lead to confirmation bias (ie. following a narrative arc) and potentially interpreting this piece of evidence more strongly than it actually deserves.
Re: A graph that should be front-page news
#439Earlier quoted context omitted.
It seems like you are ignoring the hundreds of other signals that tell a similar story to this graph?
Not ignoring anything, just commenting on what the graph says as a singular piece of evidence. And it's "the hundreds of other signals that tell a similar story" that can lead to confirmation bias (ie. following a narrative arc) and potentially interpreting this piece of evidence more strongly than it actually deserves.
Re: A graph that should be front-page news
#440Earlier quoted context omitted.
Not ignoring anything, just commenting on what the graph says as a singular piece of evidence. And it's "the hundreds of other signals that tell a similar story" that can lead to confirmation bias (ie. following a narrative arc) and potentially interpreting this piece of evidence more strongly than it actually deserves.
Ah yes, the classic case of additional independent evidence making the claim less likely! How could I forget…