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What will be left for us to work on?

normaltech.ai

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Re: What will be left for us to work on?

#201

Post by lelele »

mlrtime wrote: post #191
lelele wrote: post #163

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sure, but how confident can they be that it doesn't also do things they don't want? Tests can't be exhaustive, whereas even a mediocre developer is likely to possess enough background knowledge to notice risks that a non-developer would not think to test. Some people keep forgetting that we haven't reached AGI yet. These tools can still make serious and sometimes obvious mistakes. Not long ago, vibe-coded software co…

The un-hidden secret is that QA and real testing doesn't exist much anymore. People aren't surprised when things break, they just want it fixed quickly, and AI can do that.

Mmm... People may overlook a glitch here and there, but judging by reviews on app stores, it seems to me that people get very annoyed when things break, especially when it happens at the worst possible time.

As for AI fixing things... Sure, at least for a while. But in my experience, AI can hit a wall and start going in circles. It doesn't happen often, but it can happen. And when it does, what recourse will you have for fixing the tangled mess that vibe coding tends to produce?

Re: What will be left for us to work on?

#202

Post by CuriouslyC »

not-a-llm wrote: post #199
CuriouslyC wrote: post #182

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Indy games markets have been flooded with human slop since long before AI was a thing, the marketing playbook hasn't changed at all, if you just fire games into the void you never had a shot.

it took 1 month to make a human slop, now it takes 1 day

People have been making games in a weekend using asset packs/store resources and engines for a while now. Indie gaming speed ran a lot of the marketing bullshit that every kind of app is suffering through now, and there's already a pipeline in place that works pretty well: itch.io demo -> vlogging/streaming/discord -> steam demo -> early access -> streamer promotion.

Re: What will be left for us to work on?

#203

Post by weatherlite »

lelanthran wrote: post #90
zkmon wrote: post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Disparity in ownership of machines is not the main factor that is driving the need for work. It is the un-ending desire (or selling pressure) to have things that require money to buy. Most people work to be able to pay their loans and have things that are perceived to be common needs in their geography and culture. These "needs" are sometimes enforced by the systems and government so that people don't stay away from…

You are missing my point; if you have no value other than unthinking manual labour to offer the world, why would the world keep you alive? "Work" doesn't exist to keep people busy, it exists to keep them alive.

> why would the world keep you alive?

I don't buy this. Tons of people in the West live on welfare and don't contribute shit to the economy, they are net takers. No one is plotting to kill them, in fact they're (arguably) getting more than they did 50 years ago and definitely more a 100 years ago. We live in democracies, not in a dystopian nightmare and I don't see why A.I is going to change that dynamic. People vote, people control the government, the government controls the armed forces, private citizens are not allowed to gather unregulated weapons... billionaire or no billionaire I don't see how you can beat that. And also, it's not like the billionaire class is some kind of a cohesive group that wants to work together to rule the world - they pretty much compete with and hate each other. I don't think Musk, Altman, Hassabis and Larry and Sergey are all going to agree to work together on "controling the machines" and killing all the other people.

Re: What will be left for us to work on?

#204

Post by danielbln »

singingtoday wrote: post #35
cleandreams wrote: post #21

We'll be cleaning up tech debt from over-reliance on AI.

We can't do that until we clean up all the tech debt from promotion oriented development.

Yeah I hear that all the time "someone needs to clean up the slop tech debt" yet in the before times there was plenty of tech debt no one ever cleaned up, why would that be different now.

Re: What will be left for us to work on?

#205

Post by nisegami »

ElProlactin wrote: post #168
sharikous wrote: post #162

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> We just need to find the social structures to provide people with basic needs and reserve "work" for things that are vital to society or truly inspired. just?

Yeah, isn't there an AI for that?

There will be soon, I hope.

Re: What will be left for us to work on?

#206

Post by lelele »

mlrtime wrote: post #191
lelele wrote: post #163

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sure, but how confident can they be that it doesn't also do things they don't want? Tests can't be exhaustive, whereas even a mediocre developer is likely to possess enough background knowledge to notice risks that a non-developer would not think to test. Some people keep forgetting that we haven't reached AGI yet. These tools can still make serious and sometimes obvious mistakes. Not long ago, vibe-coded software co…

The un-hidden secret is that QA and real testing doesn't exist much anymore. People aren't surprised when things break, they just want it fixed quickly, and AI can do that.

P.S. Again, it all boils down to AGI not being with us yet. I guesstimate that AI writes at least 95% of my code, but given how often LLMs come up with inefficient or ineffective solutions, I'd never entrust my reputation to a vibe-coded app. Startups may have little to lose vs much to gain from a shorter time to market, but an established company?

Re: What will be left for us to work on?

#207

Post by thisisit »

andeee23 wrote: post #193
thisisit wrote: post #158

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Current discussions is like deja vu. One time there was hype around of no code/low code development using PowerApps, Zapier etc. The sell was - Creating your apps was easier than before. You don't need to know any programming language. You don't need IT. You have a GUI and just drag and drop and visual your apps. Just fill the fields and voila your app is ready. The criticism of the approach was that low codes apps m…

i don't think it's the same exact conversation. with low code tools you still need to poke around, figure out what you want, what to do, etc. with the latest agents, you can even be vague and they'll probably do an ok job if it's not something super complicated. some models are also pretty good at stopping to let you know about stuff you haven't thought about and ask for clarification. so you can outsource thinking n…

> you still need to poke around, figure out what you want, what to do, etc.

Is it different? because then:

> you can even be vague, and they'll probably do an ok job if it's not something super complicated

That's lot of qualifiers to say maybe, should be possible - how does someone who is not a software engineer know what is complex, vague or ok. There are lot of assumptions to say - This time it is different.

It is entirely possible it is different but I am yet to find a convincing argument.

Re: What will be left for us to work on?

#208

Post by zombot »

zkmon wrote: post #59

You need to first address 1)What is work? 2)Why we need to work? Animals don't "work". Not atleast for their own sake. If there is enough green pasture and water around, they don't even migrate to other places. So if work is meant to provide food and shelter and if machines can ensure that, humans don't need to "work". Wealth is only a reserve capacity to help future generations so that they don't need to work for th…

Only if you buy the fairy tale that the machines will be our nursemaids and that the powerful will forget their obsession with controlling and exploiting others.

Re: What will be left for us to work on?

#209

Post by sarchertech »

Retric wrote: post #87
sarchertech wrote: post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Many medical facilities are only staffed with permanent nurses, with doctors helicoptering in, from time to time, to take care of specific duties that may require certain licenses, or provide specific advice. Maybe for a very loose definition of medical facilities that includes assisted living facilities. But for example in an ER, nurses come and go with very rapid turnover and it’s common to staff with temporary t…

I think the only metric that matters is total medical care provided on a national / global scale. It may take vastly more training but on average a full annual physical provides less benefit on average than a 30 second vaccination requiring minimal training. Value creation and skill are wildly different things in the medical profession.

Nurses may administer vaccines. (but you don’t need to be a nurse to do this. Medical assistants do it too. It’s a very easy procedure).

But nurses aren’t the driver of vaccination. Nurses are anti-vaxxers at a much higher rate than physicians, and if you removed physicians from the equation, vaccine rates would plummet.

>total medical care provided

At the end of the day a physician is responsible for every patient that comes through. Nurses are incredibly important, but all of the care they provide is at the direction of a physician, so it’s impossible to separate out “total medical care provided” into doctor vs nurse.

Re: What will be left for us to work on?

#210

Post by pilgrim0 »

ranguna wrote: post #136
pilgrim0 wrote: post #131

The very question is biased toward the idea that “something is coming”, as if we’re heading to some technological inevitability. I don’t see it happening. This whole “it’s coming” vibe is the narrative attached to the technology, it has nothing to do with the technology itself. It seems like people who buy it are trapped in the fictional reality of a very cheap advertisement, or should I say, propaganda. Your calcula…

It's not "coming", it's already here. I barely code anymore, mate. And that happened in a just a few years, imagine in a few more.

But "code" is still the core substrate of your production, right? And you probably output even more of it. So how is it that you barely code anymore? One could say you're coding way more, and way harder. And you're right: it requires a lot of hope and imagination to conceive further disruptions from this technology. From my POV, it's pretty clear that we have already hit the ceiling. Not because the underlying technology can't improve, but because a technology does not exist in a vacuum, and being one that demands orchestration and supervision, it's clear that it's bottlenecked by its environment. To put it differently, think about how much more could you do with today's version of it, if you were able to read 10x faster, sleep 10x less, and handle 10x more tasks in parallel? So how exactly are we going to create an hyperproductive dystopia if you're already leaving so much performance on the table by simply being a meat bag?
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