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A graph that should be front-page news

lyrebirddreaming.com

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Re: A graph that should be front-page news

#261

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But the claim must be that physical goods can become an arbitrarily small portion of the economy. Nobody would dispute that they've become smaller. Do you believe that food can become arbitrarily cheap relative to total wealth? Or steel, or silicon? In other words, can the food you eat require an arbitrarily small portion of your income? And looking at nation-states only is an accounting trick; the economy is global.…

It appears that they believe you can eat emails (according to the substitutability principle).

It appears that parent comment believes that there’s infinite amount of food and once you degrowth you will never run out of it.

Re: A graph that should be front-page news

#262

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I can understand the desire to be concerned about the climate systems that keep earth habitable for humans starting to break down might come with some extreme views. It seems almost thinking we can continue as normal given the predictions of climate scientists are now coming true, is the extreme views. I worry that these climate scientists might have under egged their estimates due to a “sensible mindset” rather than…

Optimistic of you to assume it’ll only be fifty years. Do you expect humans to adapt that quickly? The climate will be messed up for centuries at least

Where do you get the "centuries at least" bit? The hole in the ozone layer "repaired itself" much faster after humans made changes. There's no more acid rain in Los Angeles after humans made changes. These all happened within my lifetime. We also saw during covid lock downs how quickly things changed from the sudden slow down in human activity.

Re: A graph that should be front-page news

#263

In a world where we have people like Trump, Musk, Thiel, et al, with extreme power and resources, why would we hope for something like climate change to be addressed? What can scientists do? Even if they are 100% right and can prove it, they have no power to do anything. Governments of the top countries are puppets of the US, so there’s not much to do. Other governments are dealing with more mundane problems. And the…

Note that anyone who suggested actions that would be both implementable by an individual and extremely effective would be rapidly banned from HN. We could build out private solar farms though.

I can think of a nonfiction book whose title would get you rapidly banned from HN. A movie was made with the same subject and title, but because it was a drama and not a documentary, it's not really fair to say the movie is an adaptation of a book. In the movie, a small group does the thing that is extremely effective.

/The Ministy for the Future/ also contains a grassroots group that does something implementable by individuals and extremely effective.

Re: A graph that should be front-page news

#264
"Earth is moving beyond the range within which modern human civilisation developed."

Way, way, way, way overstated. The graph shows a comparison to an average over a few decades. Human civilization is thousands of years old. Does anyone have a graph of what all the El Ninos since the last Ice Age ended have looked like? Of course not. Nobody has that kind of temperature data.

Re: A graph that should be front-page news

#265
post #245

the problem with this kind of article is half of them push a doom angle and the other half talk about carbon footprint. both of them have the same effect making people give up or do useless lifestyle changes that do nothing for the environment. we should be pushing for backend changes that are invisible but actually make things better. that means massive subsidies to build out clean power and electrify everything. po…

You got my vote!

Re: A graph that should be front-page news

#267

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Optimistic of you to assume it’ll only be fifty years. Do you expect humans to adapt that quickly? The climate will be messed up for centuries at least

Where do you get the "centuries at least" bit? The hole in the ozone layer "repaired itself" much faster after humans made changes. There's no more acid rain in Los Angeles after humans made changes. These all happened within my lifetime. We also saw during covid lock downs how quickly things changed from the sudden slow down in human activity.

Changing refrigerants and propellants away from fluorine chemistry and installing desulfurization equipment on coal plants are both many orders of magnitude easier than reducing the amount of hydrocarbons we burn globally to the point where the temperature increasing is stopped or reversed.

One of them requires the entire global population cooperate to burn fewer hydrocarbons. The examples you mentioned were handled in the US by regulating power plant operators and chemical manufacturers.

Re: A graph that should be front-page news

#269

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So, because he's a nutter the graph shouldn't be front page news is the argument then? That'll teach him. He will learn the regret the day he dared say "hey, this graph means we're all gonna die if we don't do something! Look at it!" because we outsmarted him by refusing to look.

The argument is that when a data point comes from a source with such an obvious bias, the data point is called into question.

The beautiful thing about evidence is that it's able to be evaluated on its own merit.

Adding heuristics trades accuracy for speed. It's fine to be overloaded and rely on heuristics, but let's call them what they are, shortcuts.

Re: A graph that should be front-page news

#270

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The economic system itself is incompatible with the physical reality of a finite planet. The ones steering society choose to crash and ruin everything rather than to jeopardize their positions in power. That obvious failure in morals and ethics, basic principles of adult responsibility really, is made possible by a lack of rational reflection in the populace. Objective truth has to take precedence over subjective des…

> The economic system itself is incompatible with the physical reality of a finite planet The economic reality is perfectly compatible with finite reality, because growth is not a function of resources. An email is more economically valuable than a paper mail despite requiring much less resources (and leading to a much less CO2 emission)

> growth is not a function of resources

This is a bold claim: I do not believe that if all remaining fossil fuels had vanished overnight that growth would remain identical.

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