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A graph that should be front-page news

lyrebirddreaming.com

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Re: A graph that should be front-page news

#141

Post by constantius »

pluralmonad wrote: post #132
constantius wrote: post #116

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'd push back.on blaming the populace for this: the widespread belief in general polls is that the climate situation is dire and that drastic measures need to be taken. However, the constraints that most people have to contend with do not allow them to be more radical in their calls for change. You saw it in the Gilets Jaunes/Yellow Vests uprising in France, that was motivated not by the passion for IC engines but by…

Throwing everything animal under the bus is not warranted. CAFOs and grain heavy operations certainly. Regenerative ag using animals on pasture is an amazing carbon sink. I agree that the factories using petroleum grown grains as feed are terrible.

90% of farmed animals globally are in factory farms: https://www.sentienceinstitute.org/global-animal-farming-est...

I don't have data on the West specifically, but I'd be surprised if it's not 99%. "Free range" animals are largely a fiction.

Animals being used for pasture grazing, for the benefit of the climate, could be understandable, but I think enslavement and torture of 200+ billion animals annually is a moral failure that goes far beyond its effects on CO2 ppm.

Re: A graph that should be front-page news

#142

Post by vitally3643 »

Loquebantur wrote: post #139
voidUpdate wrote: post #100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Good design will absolutely improve public reception

It maybe would, if people were to read it in the first place. But they don't: they go to the comments here first and try to get the gist of reactions, in order to save themselves the time to actually read the piece. You pretend, it wasn't trivial for people to scroll down to the graph. Such things aren't the issue at all. The reactions you cause with your comment above are.

People also won't read 14 paragraphs of prose about a graph before you show them the graph

Re: A graph that should be front-page news

#143

Post by voidUpdate »

Loquebantur wrote: post #139
voidUpdate wrote: post #100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Good design will absolutely improve public reception

It maybe would, if people were to read it in the first place. But they don't: they go to the comments here first and try to get the gist of reactions, in order to save themselves the time to actually read the piece. You pretend, it wasn't trivial for people to scroll down to the graph. Such things aren't the issue at all. The reactions you cause with your comment above are.

I doubt my single comment about the design choices of the article is turning people off from seeing what the article is about. I'm stressing that the graph is actually important to see, not saying "the design is bad so you shouldn't read this article". And given people's attention spans these days, I'd imagine reading 14 paragraphs to find the graph the title talks about might be non-trivial

Re: A graph that should be front-page news

#145

Post by ablation »

Loquebantur wrote: post #140
ablation wrote: post #134

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The author of that Climate Casino post has some... strong views. So you might want to bear this in mind when reading his analysis: "The human cancer is destructive to every living thing, as humans continue to eat the planet into oblivion. As someone who values “everything else,” I would be one of the first to rally behind the NTHE philosophy if it had any scientific basis at all. I want the human cancer gone from thi…

People in the climate movement are rarely professional PR folks. Weaponizing their personal faults against the objective subject matter they talk about is disingenuous anyway? You cannot deduce factual correctness from how "holy" the messenger is.

I wasn't aware I had weaponised their personal faults, or indeed claimed that what they said was indicative of being a personal fault. I read his post, and then read some more of his writing, and simply felt it would be worth posting what I read in this thread. For me at least, it was a useful experience that changed some of what I was reading into the commentary surrounding the data. YMMV.

Re: A graph that should be front-page news

#146

Post by tormeh »

yellow_lead wrote: post #18

Lots of AI tells in this article. Ironic? > It's not a forecast. It's not a simulation of what might happen decades from now. These are...

I think that kind of breathless excited tone is justified by the subject matter. Unlike the usual LinkedIn posts this is actually about a pretty dire situation.

Re: A graph that should be front-page news

#147

Post by stymaar »

camillomiller wrote: post #12
blaze33 wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can go to the source website https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily/?dm_id=nino3.4 There's is an interactive chart that's easier to understand

Check out 2015, it had way hotter temperatures in November, with higher temperatures than the average in this period, but I would like a climatologist to explain this, draw correlations etc. The original post is a weird LLM-mediated mix of vague scaremongering with some easy piling on journalism "just because". So what am I supposed to with it? Nothing, because it's written by an LLM, I guess.

> Check out 2015, it had way hotter temperatures in November

That's what El Niño is about: instead of declining after a peak in June, temperature plateaus and then rise again later in the year.

So the fact that the Pacific is much hotter than it was in 2015 is particularly scary, because it leads us to believe that it will also be this hotter than 2015 in November.

Re: A graph that should be front-page news

#148

Post by card_zero »

penteract wrote: post #133
VladVladikoff wrote: post #91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes I was wondering the same. Why is the mean using a different set of years than the total data set? There also seems to be a year where the swing was equally as extreme in the other direction, what year was this? Would be worth mentioning at least in the post.

Based on https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily/?dm_id=nino3.4 , 1988 is the year from the dataset with the lowest temperature throughout June and July.

I posted a comment earlier about how 1982-1983 (the start of the data) had a historically severe El Nino, and the comment got shadowbanned. I don't understand why that happens sometimes. Hasn't happened for months, but when it does it's always on innocuous factual comments, it's weird.

Re: A graph that should be front-page news

#149

Post by elcritch »

ablation wrote: post #134
inigyou wrote: post #66

This website is making heavy use of IP range blocking. Here's an uncensored link: https://web.archive.org/web/20260713092155/https://www.lyreb... Alternatively, since the link that was posted is just an AI copyright theft site, use the original instead: https://climatecasino.substack.com/p/some-monsters-are-real Discussion: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48890533

The author of that Climate Casino post has some... strong views. So you might want to bear this in mind when reading his analysis: "The human cancer is destructive to every living thing, as humans continue to eat the planet into oblivion. As someone who values “everything else,” I would be one of the first to rally behind the NTHE philosophy if it had any scientific basis at all. I want the human cancer gone from thi…

It's additionally not clear that TFA is a copy of the Climate Casino (CC) post.

It's on the same topic, possibly spurred by the CC. Yes it uses the same graph (which I presume CC also didn't make), but otherwise the content and writing is very different. It's less detailed, possibly LLM written, but also more approachable.

I guess re-posting about a salient topic is now just "AI copyright theft".

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